The delusions of time and the reality of luck on Hive

in LeoFinance4 years ago

Despite the potentially philosophical title, this is a pretty pragmatic post about the illusion of time in regards to activity and outcomes on Hive. I often write about my time on Hive and how I have been here since early 2017, but the time I have spent here or that I have been on Hive, doesn't matter nearly as much as the amount and type of activity I have done whilst here.

I mention this because I often get comments that look at the date of account creation and say something like "I have been here from 2017 too, and I am still a little fish", as if the similar age of our accounts and the vast difference in outcomes are proof that the system is rigged or only the rich can "win" - which is obviously bullshit for anyone who has been following my account for the last 4 years.

However, just like everything in life, Hive isn't fair, because outcomes depend on a whole range of aspects that matter, but are largely out of our control. Is it fair that I can write? Is it fair that I am not six foot five and can play basketball like Michael Jordan? Is it fair that I am willing to work up to 20 hours a day? Is it fair that I have no economic safety net? Is it fair that I have the experiences I do?

None of these things are really up to me from a talent perspective, but some of them I can affect through my mindset and activity in order to nudge the results. Is it fair that I have to work as hard as I have to get to this point on Hive?

I came across a comment that mentioned the "I have been here too" kind of thing and when I investigated a bit further, I discovered they had almost as many posts as they did comments, and that wasn't very much, plus they also had a gap of a year or two and seemed to be pretty sporadic with their activity. Is that a useful comparison? Someone commented about how they were the same, and looking at their posts, there was a difference again, with a lot of posts, but a lot of them were one-liner kinds of things with a link to something else, by someone else. There looked to be some okay quality mixed randomly in there too - but again, is this comparable?

Content matters a lot on Hive, but people generally focus on the individual pieces of content that gets a high reward and complain because they have just posted something decent and earned far less. There aren't actually that many accounts that are getting high rewards on low quality often anymore, though I am sure it does happen from time to time. However, even though there is an immutable blockchain and everything is recorded, most people are never going to go back in time and see the journey of any individual account. Consistency is a key component of success at pretty much anything.

But, then there is the content itself, where the content has to be considered valuable enough to consistently get rewarded. There are many types of content that can earn, but one also has to consider what kind of platform this is and what kinds of people are here and what they are interested in. Is it really a surprise that crypto or Hive content is popular among people who are heavily invested in crypto and Hive?

If you look at Trending, you will see some of the same people there scattered through quite a lot of random creators, but it isn't cronyism, it is the development of trust between content creator and the consumer. This happens in all consumer areas where people become somewhat loyal to brands that they have used and come to trust. That trust is built on consistency of product that sets a consumer expectation that when they buy, they know what they are going to get. This happens for all manner of goods, from the most expensive to the cheapest, but where the value is highest, is in the areas where there is a scarcity of some kind.

A content creator is able to offer scarcity value in various ways, but the most likely target is differentiation of the product, so that while it can reduce the size of the audience, that audience can become loyal and even advocates for the creator. Developing advocacy is very important in social networks, as it creates the conditions for social proofing and word-of-mouth distribution. But, differentiation alone isn't enough, as it still has to engage the interest of the consumer, which makes it quite a challenging line to find, as what is interesting is also often quite common (like Hive content) so differentiating whilst still remaining within the topic confines takes a fair amount of effort.

For me, I have my own style and processes for developing my content, but a lot of it has come through trial and error as well as paying attention to the results of many approaches across the community. Since I like to observe social interactions, Hive is a natural fit for my interest area and it gives me experience that I can use in my content about Hive, as well as many, many other things. Not only do I observe here, but I have the "luck" to work two different professional jobs that puts me in direct relationship with a very wide range of people. I say "luck" because I didn't choose all the factors that led me to today, but I also didn't sit back and wait for them to happen to me. Is it fair that I have two jobs when some people can't get one?

Well, this is the thing with the luck of it. Because I was struggling to find a job that I was really interested in, qualified for and would pay enough, I started my own business and worked to build it. I was then able to get a secondary job, based on my track record and skills that I learned and demonstrated by building my own business. Is it luck? Yes, because I still didn't have a choice in all of the factors involved, but now I have the "pleasure" of working more than other people. Other people have the skills to do similar, but not all of them have the will.

This isn't fair, yet it isn't fair for everyone. However, it seems that when we evaluate ourselves against others, we always make the assumption that the people who we perceive as doing better than us,, had better conditions in which to do well, that they come from money, that they were born with skills or often, that they are cutting corners or cheating in some way to get the results they do. It isn't often that we compare someone we believe is doing better than us to ourselves and say, "they have the results because they are willing to do what I am not".

For most, it is like the fear of investing money into something, they are scared of the loss, they want guarantees. Everyone "knows" that money attracts money, yet very few are willing to use their money to attract more. On Hive, people want the quick return equivalent of buying the right meme coin, without any risk. There are no guarantees on Hive, so putting a lot of effort into content, building relationships and developing trust doesn't mean that "success" will arrive, but not doing these things pretty much ensures that content creator success isn't even a possibility.

But remember that even in all of these factors mentioned throughout this post, there is a difference in what some people will consider consistency, quality, engaging, useful and valuable. It is because of this that while I like to observe and analyze behaviors and I like to discover how things are connected - the safest approach for me is making sure that I enjoy what I do here, that while I enjoy the rewards of my work, I can also get value from the process itself.

For those who are actually experienced in this world, they likely know there is more to financial success than work, it also requires doing the right work at the right time. While there is a lot of luck involved in many factors of our life, most people will discover that the successful amongst us will often work their asses off to be there, but they likely wouldn't have the motivation to do so, if they only did it for the money. The money is the byproduct of their activity and when they start investing it for passive income, it isn't actually passive at all, it is a multiplier upon the outcomes of their past activities.

When people say "it isn't worth my time" it might be because they think that what they are earning today has a static value into the future, but that is not the case. When time is applied to factors, the outcomes can change remarkably and perhaps crypto has one of the best examples of this, because once upon a time in the past, two pizzas cost 400 million dollars worth of Bitcoin.

I have worked for many hours for cents on Hive and I have done it daily for years, observing, learning, developing my skills, building up a brand, generating (hopefully) trust and producing and directing my content so that it sits in a little niche by itself. It is adjacent to many, overlaps with some, but it is uniquely mine and as such, scarce. This doesn't mean it is valuable for anyone else, but that is up to them to consider.

Time is a resource, but it is how it is used that gives it value. Luck is a resource too, but it is very volatile and outside of our control, so in order to benefit from it, one has to invest regardless of it - be prepared for when it arrives, and when it doesn't. Preparation takes time and that time might amount to nothing, or it might be the most valuable time ever spent.

Fair is an illusion, it only exists in the safety of our imagination. Magical thinking.

Feeling lucky?

Time will tell.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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We chat over messenger while working, and a colleague ordered an icecream delivery, via ubereats; for $20. How do I convince him to come here and spend an hour on a post, and only 'make' a couple of dollars?
Not leaving the house for a $3 icecream is worth $17 to him.
He'll say Hive is broken.
Maybe it is. Maybe while he's gainfully employed in a low impact role, comfortably at home, with no ambition to build something for the future, maybe it doesn't make sense for him to engage here.
He should though. Even if just to meet some Venezuelans.

He should though. Even if just to meet some Venezuelans.

:)

It is crazy to think what people consider is a good use of their time and money.

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I was feeling this for long time. Now i mostly do one big post about crypto in the last 7 days once per week, usually in the weekend and that's it. And almost spammy ones about splinterlands/hive and their contests, which i also publish on my other blogs. Weekly battle challenge here i come! :)


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I think there are many that do the same. For me, I wish I could take it a little easier at times - but I don't feel right posting anything that I consider spammy or low quality. I actually don't mind when some people do this on occasion, as long as they balance it with some value.

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I know, some are just recording, like the hive portfolio weekly update, so i can check any week to see how i was at any moment in time. is important for me, so i like to do it.

I think I give content a go if you enjoy reading miserable reflective pieces and wanting poetry but consistency has always been tricky for me. There is this knowledge that if I had a healthy source of income I'd concentrate here. I'd probably be doing so much better but for now, I am just hoping :)

It is a catch-2 for many people - they don't have the time/money to build the income, but they won't build until they have the time and money. I see my own activity as investment into my business - it has additional benefits too :)

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I saw a few of that style comment on your post and on other peoples post. Fair is only in the eye of the person crying it is not fair. They fear trying to be consistent, they fear leaving their rewards to power them up. They fear taking that special dinner money and investing it in themselves. Most people that see unfair are the ones afraid to invest in themselves.

I joined 8 months after you, but I joined under different circumstances and for different reasons. I don't remember when I first found your post/content, but I enjoyed it. You put the time in, you invested not in just Hive but in yourself, and it shows by your success and growth.

In a post not long ago you spoke about fear, risk and uncertainty, those comparing the lack of their growth compared to yours should find and read it. Those that think you are rich should read some of your older post. Such as the one where you first started talking about buying a house, then they may understand a bit more.

Yes luck has some part in it all, but not as much as people think. Work has a lot more to do with it than luck. If they were really serious about the lack of their growth compared to yours then they would ask more salient questions such as, what are the top five things that you feel led to your success and growth on Hive, but they don't they just say it's unfair or you got lucky, or you are rich.

I saw a few of that style comment on your post and on other peoples post. Fair is only in the eye of the person crying it is not fair.

One of the people complained on another post because it had too much engagement ...

Those that think you are rich should read some of your older post. Such as the one where you first started talking about buying a house, then they may understand a bit more.

But they never do. I have a few ex-pro hockey player friends who have earned a fair amount in their careers. People say "they got it easy" without considering the 15 years of unpaid pre-work they did from childhood with no certainty of outcome, nor the damage to their bodies from the game itself. Easy..

If they were really serious about the lack of their growth compared to yours then they would ask more salient questions such as, what are the top five things that you feel led to your success and growth on Hive, but they don't they just say it's unfair or you got lucky, or you are rich.

When they ask, I tell them. Very few have ever followed the advice. I can get a gym trainer and nutritionist to tell me exactly what I need to do and eat to get into shape. I still have to do and eat those things for result. That's the hard part.

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Your reflection is very interesting and true. Certainly there are two fundamental things to bring "luck"? On the one hand you have to attract it with work, study, preparation and dedication. And on the other hand, enjoy what you do and love the process. Thanks for your post. Regards

If you aren't prepared to take advantage, no amount of luck will help.

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You just had to bring up the thing with MJ and my lack of height. There was a period (I think I was 13) when I was angry at my DNA providers for making it (almost) impossible for me to be an NBA all-star.

All right, I knew it was a joke back then and I knew I had to do with what I got. Which is a lot more than many a people. It's easy to fixate on what we lack and lose what we have. It's easy to complain. It's easy to blame Canada, etc.

It's the non-quitters that don't quit. Simple as that.

Anything being worth your time is another matter, entirely.

Nothing is worth your time. Then again, your time is worth nothing if you don't make it worth something.

There was a period (I think I was 13) when I was angry at my DNA providers for making it (almost) impossible for me to be an NBA all-star.

Short parents are the most inconsiderate people. My mother was 5 foot tall....

Nothing is worth your time. Then again, your time is worth nothing if you don't make it worth something.

"I don't get out of bed for less than" -

how often do you get out of bed?

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While I agree with this for the most part you also have to taken into account the fact that some people just get lucky. We all know there are some accounts that have gained the eye of a whale by chance and that is what sustains them. I am not saying that is the case with you, but it does happen. I know a guy that started around the same time as me. He writes about different stuff than I do and gets some pretty significant upvotes. Does that mean his content is better than mine? I don't think so. It's just different and caught the right peoples attention. I agree with you that a lot of it depends on what you put into it. There is no doubt that can make a huge difference.

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We all know there are some accounts that have gained the eye of a whale by chance and that is what sustains them.

Yes - and then when that whale inevitably moves on, that some person complains about a lack of community support. If you want community support, you have to provide value to the community. It takes longer and is unlikely to get the massive votes, but it is far less risky than leaning on one client, no matter how large.

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I do actually feel lucky as I'm doing surprisingly well given I'm socially inept (at least in real time) and completely do not do

paying attention to the results of many approaches

which is generally what one needs to do if one wants to become e-popular do alright on social media.

vaguely related, do you remember when being "e-popular" wasn't considered as "really" being popular, much like how online friends somehow couldn't be "real" friends XD

it isn't cronyism, it is the development of trust between content creator and the consumer

Exactly what a crony would say? ;D

I still don't look at trending at all ever

Vaguely related, I remember years and years ago when I actually wanted to be more out there, I remember seeing other artists who were technically worse than me but a lot more popular. I wondered why for ages as I was doing similar things (I was engaging a lot but while quality was consistent frequency was absolutely not by any stretch of the imagination) and hadn't thought about doing progblogs yet) but could never quite stumble across that "wow" factor. I got an inkling after a while but it was only after I had done webdev properly as a business and learned way more than I wanted to about trends and seo that I realised it was because they were working in popular fandoms AND doing popular art styles that everyone likes, because this

There are many types of content that can earn, but one also has to consider what kind of platform this is and what kinds of people are here and what they are interested in

minus the earning on those other sites but this otherwise applies just as much elsewhere

I then figured I was never going to be popular because I don't do popular things, and everything became so much easier ;D

I have worked for many hours for cents on Hive

Same :D And prior to that I was doing the same amount of work for nothing, so cents was pretty amazing :)

vaguely related, do you remember when being "e-popular" wasn't considered as "really" being popular, much like how online friends somehow couldn't be "real" friends XD

I only have e-friends now.... mostly on MySpace.

Exactly what a crony would say? ;D

Yes. But, it is true isn't it? People have preferences for all things, content included.

I still don't look at trending at all ever

It is far better than it was.

I then figured I was never going to be popular because I don't do popular things, and everything became so much easier ;D

It is good to come to terms with it :)

For me, I am lucky because I enjoy writing what is also in a popular category, but it took a long time to differentiate myself. The problem is, I like writing in lots of categories too, and I know that no one is ever going to say - "That Taraz is a great poet!" :D For me to warrant getting automated votes on that content, I have to make sure the vast majority I write is considered valuable enough to make up for what isn't as valuable.

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You never know, someone somewhere out there might be saying exactly that, just you haven't heard it yet XP

I kind of understand where you're coming from with warranting automated votes, in my case I'm generally just trying to keep up consistency and quality of work because unlike you I don't actually know why I'm getting most of the automated votes x_x

How do you value what you do? That's something I never got the hang of (even with the webdev business and commissions x_x). Also how do you work out how other people value what you do?

I'm assuming we were talking financial value seeing as we're here and talking about upvotes ^_^;

Although I might be one of those people who say "I have been here since 2017 and I am still a little fish", I'm fully aware that this is the reflection of my lazy work on hive. I tend to be honest with myself.
Being successful on Hive needs determination, consistency, luck, and time. It's not something that will come overnight.

Nice post. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. :))

I tend to be honest with myself.

It is the best way to live. Hard at times :)

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I'm always feeling lucky. Haha

I don't think the year of entry has anything to do with growth. I mean everyone born in the same year grows at a different pace. I like to be honest with myself and I know I haven't put in even a quarter of the amount of work a lot of people have put in.

I see this

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

And you have my respect sensei.

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I'm always feeling lucky.

Feeling, or getting? ;D

I don't think the year of entry has anything to do with growth.

It doesn't. I know people who have joined in the last year that have grown more than people here form 2016.

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You'd work to create a system that rewarded you on the merit of your writings and not tracking whales in hope for inclusion into their inner circles.

If you think I am there because I suck up to whales, you haven't been paying attention.

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Are you drunk or high?

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Seems like he's just messing with you 😆

So true man I have been reading your post

I've been here since 2014 and it's still the same old STEEM / HIVE. Maybe something will give soon? I hope so.

Since 2014?
The first block of Steem was in 2016.

Edit:
I did say time was an illusion - maybe my 2016 was your 2014 ;D

Oh it was 2016, yeah you're right. It's been so long I forgot. Been a good stable coin all this time, that's for sure, nothing wrong with that.

It will actually be quite interesting if the HF stabilizes HBD pretty tightly and then there is a decent APR on holding it in the wallet.

I think it will work, that would be something if it had a high APR, then we could attract a lot of new big investment! Fingers crossed. I know somehow this is all going to work out.

Yeah, I am hoping too :)

Suerte... Esa suerte definitivamente se construye con el día a día, tal y como explicas muy coherentemente.

Nadie sabe de los esfuerzos invertidos, el camino recorrido y las horas de concentración.

Grata lectura, de la cual suscribo cada palabra.

Sigamos Adelante, Crezcamos Juntos!