Citi released a detailed paper about its forecasts for the future of cryptocurrency. It was titled Money, Tokens, and Games: Blockchain's Next Billion Users and Trillions in Value. This really sums up what the bank's view of blockchain is.
While most focus upon the monetary aspect of cryptocurrency, the real value lies in the technology. When we look at both blockchain and crypto, we see that a new world is rapidly forming. This is something that is going to radically alter the landscape.
Part of the problem with looking at technology is that, even if we are right in the path it takes, it is hard to envision the players that will dominate. The tendency is to look at the established entities and believe they will carry forward.
There is no doubt the world of music changed greatly with the introduction of Napster. File sharing put a quick dent in the revenues of the recording industry. This caused massive fallout. Even though Napster was shut down, the idea of file sharing continued.
Before that event, the distribution of music was controlled by the record companies and the distribution agreements they had. This meant that retail locations were the primary dealers. Almost overnight, this was wiped out.
The big winner in this was Apple. That company was able to enter with the IPod and, later, the IPhone, and secure agreements which ended up on the ITunes store (notice the name).
This is an example of how quickly things can change and how entire industries can be upended.
$5 Trillion By 2030
We are seeing a similar transformation within the world of finance, banking, and money. Few realize the pace which things will change. The end of the decade is not that far away. Adoption rates continue to grow and we are still in the early stages of technological development.
Citi estimates that were are looking at $5 trillion tokenized by 2030. Here is what it had to say:
We estimate up to $5 trillion could move to newer digital money formats such as CBDCs and stablecoins by 2030, of which roughly half could be DLT- or blockchain-linked. Legal reforms and greater interoperability could drive up to $1 trillion of tokenization in global trade finance by 2030. Securities and funds are the big private-sector, tokenization prize. We estimate up to $5 trillion of non-financial corporate and quasi-sovereign debt; repo, securities financing, and collateral market; and alternative assets, such as real estate, private equity (PE), and venture capital (VC), could be tokenized by 2030. Industry estimates for total tokenization volumes are even higher.
Here is the opportunity. The race is on with central bank digital currency projects entering different stages of trial. It is also another example of how we are looking at a transformation due to massive technological changes.
The mistake the bank makes, in my opinion, is they are like the record producer looking to sue those who illegally download music. The tendency to operate within the existing mental framework means most of the transformation is missed.
Citi is a bank filled with people who were reared in the existing system. Many of them have the ideal the central bank is all powerful and that this is under which everything will operate. Over the years, all the research I read from these types of entities has one major constant: stability of currency comes from the monetary policies of the central banks.
Here is where there is a differing of opinion. The USD has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve and its policies. If anything, that institution keeps making itself out to be a bigger fool with the path it takes. Confidence is quickly waning.
Social Media and Finance
One of the keys to all of this is the merging of social media and finance. The idea of tokenizing a community alters the entire concept of a business structure. Here is another area that traditional thinkers go off the rails.
Money is ever changing. This is a point the banks are full aware. However, the role of technology and the threat to banking are only now being realized. FinTech started out as a niche yet has expanded greatly.
The idea that a community can create a token is very powerful. This means that engagement can be tokenized, providing a distribution mechanism we never saw before. When this is applied to social media (along with gaming), we see a new realm forming.
Financial intermediaries are no longer required. This is what Citi overlooked since, quite frankly, it is just that. Cryptocurrency was created in the digital realm. It never existed in physical form.
Of course, just like we still have newspapers and record companies, technological changes can take long periods of time to fully reach its potential in terms of disruption. The human element often allows things that are "out-of-date" to continue. Much of this tends to be tied to generations.
Cryptocurrency is no different. The younger generation is more likely to adopt something like Bitcoin as compared to the Baby Boomers. They are also more adept at cash payment using applications as opposed to a credit or debit card.
The transition to something like this will come from the younger generation.
Where Does Hive Fit In
One of the key segments that Citi referred to was gaming. It cited the fact there are 3 billion gamers globally. This is a group that is accustomed to digital assets and tokens. Therefore, the transformation is not that major for them.
Hive is obviously a blockchain that did well with this. Splinterlands has help to lead the way. There are other games that are now starting to ramp up. We will see if a trend starts in this area.
One of the areas we discuss is the Hive Backed Dollar (HBD). This is a powerful mechanism and something that is targeting what Citi was referring to. Many feel that CBDCs will be successful because they concentrate on those areas where banking is the least accessible. The idea of 2-4 billion people using CBDCs by 2030 is based upon the idea they were excluded from the system.
What is overlooked is the fact that many people in these areas opt for USD banknotes. This is the hedge against the government and its actions. More than 70% of physical dollars reside outside the United States. That is more than $2 trillion.
To presume these people will flock to CBDCs is quite a leap. The problem with a CBDC is they are no more valuable than the existing currency. In other words, the same pitfalls still exist.
Going much deeper into this area is an article all on its own. The key takeaway is that a coin like HBD is a global currency that is not tied to any geographic area or government. This means the economy that it is backed by is potentially much greater than anything these CBDCs can generate.
Ultimately, this is a race to create Web 3.0. Since social media, gaming, finance, and investing are being combined, we are going to be dealing with an entirely new concept going forward. This is something that many overlook.
In the end, it is vital to step back and see how all parts are interconnected. We have a backdrop where many governments are losing the confidence of its populations. This is not only happening in the developing nations. Now it is becoming widespread.
All of this is positioning society society for a seismic shift. Personally, I do not think the entities like Citi doing the analysis realize how big it is.
As was stated, it is one thing to predict the trends, yet guessing the major players is an entirely different matter.
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If we can exchange tokens for good and services… regular “money” as we know it will no longer be needed.
You are someone who brings up interesting topics, still minimum interaction happens in the comment section. basically zero information changes regarding the actual topic. strange on a soc media platform...
anyway, a key fact: these guys, especially citi are usually wrong. that's been proven many times.
I dont see big difference between cbdc and crypto (99% of crypto, until it is not private, it lost the meaning, the main point) and I don't see cbdc/crypto ever can replace money, physical money in given parts of life. It's all about control (and manipulation, as a ponzi scheme based cbdc economy case they can manipulate the only digitally existing 'money' (also the people) very easily in a 'crisis' case, so keep up the control, and they, the banking system/owners digged themselves into crypto very deep. debit cards for cryptos, they have money in pretty much all exchanges, big coins, especially the stable ones, they try to control, own the bridges between different blockchains etc.)
however, there are definitely areas, where it can be useful. for example, real estate market, yes, definitely. of course, it equals another industry will disappear. and it is not just some vision, it is already working, just have to grow.
probably, you heard about Metropoly, i think, its generally a good idea, and people can accept it, but it is one of the few exception from the million things what they want to force on us.
Obviously, they want to force the cbdcs on everybody by cut off all the other precious metals option (you probably read about the central banks gold rush, 1 of the reason pulling off the gold, so people wont use it instead of cbdc and disappearing fiat papers) and they offer the crypto as an 'alternative' - meantime most of the cryptos are pretty much the same. Illusion of choice. Anyway, they dont have faith, trust in their own system, they know the ponzi-scheme is over in this form, the question what for they can transform.
anyway, it is kinda hypocrath, and shows banks, govs, big corps, their owners true face, they were against crypto, btc a decade ago very much, fooled the people, the slaves, it is a scam, so they could not get in early, get out from ratrace by profiting from banks, govs move...
In my opinion Hive could easily replace the big soc medias, but it won't happen, even the 'Hive' community doesnt want it. they all use discord, instead of Hive, they come here for money, not for using Hive as soc media. and it starts from the very top within the Hive. really don't understand, but it's simply just a fact, not something for debate. (anyway, the stupidest thing i ever heard... a soc media platform users, use a 3rd party soc media to interact... :) :) :) and they complain why it doesnt grow (faster) nuts!!!:) :) :) )
It is true how people on Hive still cling to the web 2.0 platforms all while talking about web 3.0. They show the hypocrisy that is throughout the entire crypto world.
As for the precious metals I think your study of monetary history is amiss. The idea that metals are the main source of money throughout history is not accurate. There were many forms of medium of exchanges along with stores of value. They were metals, slaves, cattle, and even large stones.
We also saw times when coinage was actually fiat.
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sure, i have miss, however, i think that's better than nowadays, or any other previously tried one.
Banks are backing my opinion, as they are buying like hell nowadays, last 1-2 years. Must be several reasons behind that. I guess nobody wants to go back to the middle ages and use salt as a currency again. Nothing else left, only precious metals, if we look for some valuable, well-known physical asset, what can be used as a currency.
And once again, I think physical form of currency can't disappear. People won't accept. However, get rid of printers, and the printers' owners, I would pretty much agree.
This is an intelligent way to predict of the CBDC will perform especially with USD which is a global currency, the CBDCs might not be quickly adopted as we think, it still has to go through older generations that are not quick to embrace change and even nations with less internet and digital infrastructure.
Hive ecosystem by 2030, I imagine it with a smile on my face.
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That is going to be an upcoming point of my next article.
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By 2030, it's good that we achieve so much, in any case, for now I need what is necessary for my medical costs and little by little I am achieving it, thanks to Hive. That is why I always recommend Hive every day, as it has been one of my best decisions with my 70 years of age. Thank you for your enthusiasm and motivation that you @taskmaster4450 offer us. successes
Be well my friend.
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Trust in governments is in an all time low and many people are aware of it. This gives more chance to newer technologies (especially trustless systems) to be embraced and make use of by the global population since they provide a better alternative to the existing system.
I think Hive is in a good position to thrive and take advantage of the seismic shift is about to occur.
I dont know if it is at an all time low but it is something that is making people really question what is going on. We are likely to see more social unrest over the next few years.
Things could get painful in many ways. The situation with Russia/Ukraine is just the beginning.
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Hmm, This is insightful
Thanks so much @taskmaster4450
The future is looking brighter and more innovative than ever, I guess this is the beginning of Web3 and it will crazy be of a great advantage to Hive itself.
Thanks for sharing your wonderful research. But this would involve more pages to cover such a big topic. Those bankers have just realised that they might be shooting their own foot which was reflected in their own report. CBDC will eventually backfire and flopped, unless everyone would become under similar system as in China.
Lots of civil unrests and chaos would take place in the near future as famine started to hit more countries. Depopulation is an unpredictable factor in global progress towards technological innovation and adoption. Yup! Blockchain is here to stay partly as a block to chain or control earthlings by those on power. Once Hive became a threat, so it would be under scrutiny like what they are doing to stable coins and exchanges. Is Hive a security or an asset?! This is a fight for future and freedom! But most people are still asleep! The assault has progressed from putting mRNA in food via vaccines in cows and medicines. Soon there won’t be that many people to invest in new technologies. But the fight will go on until total transhumanism has been achieved. The bigger picture is quite full of strives and sufferings for humanity. But I still hope more people will wake up and fight for their own future.
There is a lot going on that will be revealed. It will be interesting to see how many people respond to it.
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Okay! Waiting for more information on this matter. I guess there are many questions which people dare not ask for fear of creating unintended misunderstandings.
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Crees eso bueno para el token?
Amen, Taskmaster. Citi's institutional research team is schooled in the fiat debauchery of the past 110 years of Fictional Reserve Banking. They believe that the central bank has ultimate control over the Dollar, which has never been the case. Only the banks can print currency, and that's through the creation of loans. The Federal Reserve doesn't lend money at all, it just monetizes debt and floods markets with USTs, which normal people don't own or use for anything.
$HBD will serve as the centerpiece for the Hive Financial System. I think this should be a central focus for Hive developers, going forward. While applications are necessary, so is a functioning underlying financial system.
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