AI is changing everything. The impact is so great that we have to really think this through. What will the future look like?
As stated on a number of occasions, cryptocurrency is going to be linked to AI. This is a starting point of determining how things will roll out.
Another factor is the true impact of AI, especially as we near the artificial general intelligence (AGI) level. What does the world look like and how do business operate.
From this perspective, we can bring things down to the community level. It is here where the platform becomes crucial.
Crypto Community: The Future Is In The Platform
Why did I refer to the "crypto community"? There are much bigger platforms that are already dominant in Web 2.0.
The answer lies in the fact that crypto-assets are value capture tokens. Here is where the value of the financial benefits are distributed to users in a way that is accomodating to them. It is a contrast to Web 2.0 platforms which benefits shareholders or private investors (banks).
To me, this is the new business structure that individuals best focus upon.
We also want to look at what does AI technology do?
Ultimately, it automates cognitive and physical labor. This means that everyone is going to have something that more powerful than any human. It is going to be resident in one's pocket.
What does this mean for services? The result is the collapse of online services into one single business. Why should you purchase a service from someone else when you have the same capabilities? There is no need.
Obviously, this disrupts business models completely.
So what is the business? Actually, it is the community business. The collapsing of services will result in the platform providing the communities members the essentials of what is needed. Here is where we find news, entertainment, finance, and social engagement. Bascially, take an online service and view it through this lens.
As we can guess, this radically alters the structure along with activities of business. It places the platform at the center of people's life.
Crypto Community
Once again, why a crypto community?
Here is where the future of work starts to creep in. Some do not buy into this concept so, to them, it is not relevant. However, my opinion is that we will see massive job destruction. This is going to provide havoc within the workforce.
Labor is shifting to capital. This started decades ago and is accelerating. Again, we have to look what AI (and robotics) does: it automates cognitive and physical labor. This means that captial can simply buy any level of cognitive and physical output.
Fortunately, over time, we are going to see a democratization of this process. Robotics will take a while since the cost curve precludes most startups and individuals. AI, on the other hand, is already starting to shift.
There will come a point when LLM are simply commodities. This stems from the fact that most Internet data will be scraped, feeding into all systems. At the same time, the cost of compute, along with enginnering gains, will provide greater efficiency. This will put smaller models on par with the larger ones.
Which brings us back to services?
If everyone has the same, where do we go? Where do people go?
The short answer is "where they have a financial interest". This is the future driver of everything. Why would I utilize services on a platform like X or Meta when I have no financial interest? Sure, they might pay incomes from advertising (if that is still around). However, what stake do I have have. Where does wealth generation come from unless I have stock in those companies?
Tokenization upends this. That is why the crypto community is the key. When people own a token in a platform, there is a vested financial interest. Of course, this means that services which are offered will be utilized simply because people have said interest in the platform. Network effects are still the key, something that brings value to the owners. In this case, it is token holders.
The Death Of Web 2.0
Why am I confident Web 2.0 will die?
The business model it follows is incongruent with where things are going. Now, please do not take this to mean things will collapse overnight. It will take many years for the relevance of many of these entities to fade. A lot of it has to do with habits. There are millions who click on an application out of habit. These companies will keep providing more to their users.
At the same time, they will end up expanding. Of course, more incentive is offered to the users as the services grow. The challenge comes back to the stake. When people are not able to find jobs, their viewpoint changes a great deal.
Democratization is already happening. We see this happening at every level. There are many projects that are focused upon infrastructure, AI, and cloud. Pulling activity away from the main companies is not easy. However, like a leak, it only accelerates over time.
Like MySpace, there will be remnants far into the future. However, the entire basis of the economy is changing. The model from the industrial era is quickly breaking down. Web 2.0 was a hybrid, the industrial era built in the digital realm. This, too, will break down.
Of course, these are decade long transitions. With AI and the speed of compute, this could accelerate some. I would say that 2035 will have a completely different economic makeup.
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I completely agree with you that Web 2.0 will face gradual erosion not because of a lack of innovation but because its economic models have become incompatible with new trends.
I think the transition will not be sudden but inevitable, and those who realize this early will be in a leading position when the rules of the game change.
I think web 2.0 platforms like X formerly known as twitter might die in like 10 years time because we saw three platforms that got X audiences coming over to them like Threads, Bluesky and Mastodon so maybe X even though is still popular but still is leaking audience to other platforms because of ownership change.
It is possible although MySpace is still around. There is the generation component to consider. The same is true for Facebook, a Boomer application.
I have also a feeling that web 2.0 could also be gone after few decades