Obviously we are dealing with something that is more complex than can be covered in one video.
In this one I discuss how we (in the US) are conditioned to believe the stock market is the economy. When we look at the numbers and percentages, most people are not affeted by a stock market collapse. What they are impacted by is the drop in gas and oil prices.
▶️ 3Speak
Stocks and real estate are pretty much how I make my money these days since most of crypto has gone to shit, so yeah, it's pretty important to those of us in those markets. And since COVID and the injection of a ton of money to people that had nothing else to do, many have gotten involved which is considered 'retail traders'. So it does effect the economy for many more than just the Wall Street hedge funds. Main street is tied in with Wall Street these days. When the market is down, many of us don't spend money, that effects the economy. Like my business, we use money made in the markets to buy the things we need for our homestead farm. Well since the markets are down, I am waiting to spend the money, so that's commerce that is not being done, chickens not being raised, and eggs not being laid, so I can't sell my farm fresh eggs to the people in my community. It's a trickle down effect. So the stock market does effect the economy in different ways. Just depends on what you are looking at and how you are looking at it. All that to say that I do get your argument.
I agree though that oil is basically king there and will be for at least the rest of my life time. It's like a quote in 'Landman'... (Paraphrasing)
The problem is, it's a boring range trade and not great for selling options against.
That being said, I just purchased 100 shares of TSLA today and getting ready to set up my solar system for my crypto miners, finally, lol. But all that equipment was shipped by things powered by oil, so yeah, I'll contend there, lol.
The media espouses markets when, in reality, it only affects a small subset of the population. When stocks are mostly held by 10%, then the other 90% suffer little when things collapse.
Few take the time to consider the impact of oil prices on everything they buy. The gas pump is only the first wave. Every product is shipped, mostly on truck at some point.
It's still a trickle down effect man. I have seen it from all kind of different sides myself at this point and do know that although 90% of the population might not THING it effect them, but it does because they live off of all the companies that are being hit, which could lead to many things like lack of bonuses, raises, benefits, cutting back on hours, forms of inflation like cutting the amount of chips are in a bag for the same price as before, etc. So it very much does effect the real economy in different ways that many just don't see. I was one of them until I began my journey in the financial world, and started seeing it on that plane of existence as well.
I have seen it from the view point of literally living on the streets, working as a restaurant server and manager, corporate slave employee, entrepreneur, cryptopreneur, full time day trader, and now as an investment manager for a family hedge fund and trust who is also trying to build a functional farm.
My uncle owns oil wells in different parts of the country, so I know all too well that oil is the main driver of the economy, absolutely no denying that. I also know that the US has more oil to last generations and that all this reliance on foreign oil is just a globalist scam to prop up the dollar, but that bubble has burst now after the petro-dollar agreement expired... But even price of oil is heavily dictated by futures trading at this point predicting the supply and demand of oil, so in that way, the markets are still in control of that.
So, you aren't talking to a dummy here man, and you know that... The stock market is important in the economy that we have created and live in. It's just a fact, no matter what 90% of the population wants to think. That kind of thinking is why they are struggling day to day. Once I broke that old way of thinking, life started getting much easier. If the stock market wasn't an important in the economy, the Great Depression would have never happened. It would have just effected those with the stocks, but we know through history, that wasn't the case.
The Great Depression wasnt caused by the stock market. It was the defaulting on the debt that closed all those banks just like the next crush will be the sovereign debt crisis, starting either in Japan or the EU. The collapse of the stock market did not cause bank closures.
That or the blame on tariffs was more political bs to blame the one in charge, Hoover in that case. It allowed FDR and marixism to sweep in.
Go back to the GFC, was that the stock market? Nope. MBS and CDOs, debt instruments that were overleveraged by Wall Street.
The stock market is nothing more than polling.
Since at least GW Bush, we are told the stock market is the economy. Before Reagan, few even paid attention to it since they werent invested.
At this point it is all inter-connected, maybe back in the 80's it was different, or even prior to 08. But now with all of these varying instruments being traded like stocks, ETF, etc, on exchanges easily accessed by the public, at this point, it's all connected via the markets.
Is it polling the health of the economy, yes, it's the primary poll, which I would say is pretty important. Whether 90% of people out there want to see it that way or not. They are the one's having to work paycheck to paycheck while the other 10% are writing their paychecks.
But then again, we are beyond the days where it's just the big hedge funds involved. You have everyday people out there in the markets because of brokerages like Robinhood, WeBull, etc, opening the stock market up to the average retail investor and making it easier for them to invest, trade, etc. That didn't happen until after the GFC. So yes, times are a changing and we can't compare to how things were even before the GFC, much less the fabulous 80s, lol. I know the fashion trends from that time are trying to come back, along with some synthwave pop, but, I think the financial markets have moved on, lol. ;)
Do the 85% figures, quoted, factor in 401ks; which to my understanding is tied to the stock market?
Most people rely on 401ks for retirement these days. However, in theory, the closer you get to retirement, the more conservative your 401k portfolio should be. Not that most people probably pay enough attention to it.
Yes. As I said in the video, only a small percentage of those eligible for 401K from their companies actually take advantage of them.
Ah, that would explain it. Should not have been playing Valheim at the same time. ;)
Most people don’t own stocks, but everyone feels when gas prices go up. The market isn’t the real economy for regular people