We are taking a look at what the world will look like post-AGI (and possibly ASI). The first article talked about AI, jobs and he need for crypto.
At the center of this discussion is the ownership of the means of production. Here we find ourselves debating private versus government. The free market people lean towards private which, in my view, is putting most of the wealth in the hands of Big Tech. Many feel the counter to that is to insert the government to handle the problem.
What we are potentially dealing with is the fact that the value of labor will be diminished. As skills are automated, the power shift move from labor to capital. Why employ a person when a humanoid robot will be faster, cheaper, and more effective? The same is true for the white collar world as AI starts to spread its wings.
It is a completely new structure to the economy. If capital is the driving force, then the goal is for each person to amass capital.
In this article we will dive into what this all means and what could be required.
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Web 3.0 Post AGI: Get Each Person $500K
Let us get the math out the way first.
The goal of Web 3.0 should be for each person to have $500K in assets. To achieve this, we needs to radically change our thinking.
It starts with the old income versus assets mindset. Much of the world is focused upon income. How much does one make? This is not how the wealthy operate. Income means nothing; it is net worth. The value of assets held is key.
Will people make this transition? That is up to individuals but it is something within their control, especially with tokenization.
Diving into the numbers, the planet has roughly 9 billion people on it. To average $500K per individual, that is a total of $4.5 quadrillion. Unfortunately, average does not work since we need it to be the median. Some are going to exceed that amount by a significant margin.
As an aside, cost of living and geographic location are going to figure into this. However, we are establishing a framework to operate from.
Any number in the quadrillions baffles us. To write it out, this is what $4.5 quadrillion looks like: $4,500,000,000,000,000. That is a lot of zeros.
Tokenization is going to be a huge part of this. The market cap of crypto is around $3.5 trillion. However, we know the future is going to include real world assets. That is going to go have the total jump significantly.
Also, as repeatedly stated, AI is going to increase the amount of economic output greatly.
AI = Economic Singularity?
Much of my focus is around who owns the means of production. This is radically different than how to increase it.
To me, this is a given. It is not difficult to envision how things shift when there are 500M-1B humanoid robots manufactured annually. Compounding that with advancements in AI and we see how the ability to handle tasks can grow exponentially.
The economic singularity is something we covered in the past. I define this as basically a 10x over the historic growth rate of the past century, somewhere around 30% annual growth. GDP is a tricky figure since technology is ultimately deflationary. However, it does provide a basis to operate from.
Here is where we get into the world of big numbers. Keep in mind, there was a time when thinking in trillions was difficult for many.
If we take the $100 trillion economy, a 30% annual growth rate over 10 years equates to $1.37 quadrillion. What kind of wealth does that provide for the world?
Could this happen? If the last economic singularity holds, then yes. The Industrial Revoluation took a growth rate of roughly .3% and did a 10x, to 3%. This led to the increase in the standard of living. Much of the planet has access to things Cornelius Vanderbilt, one of the richest men in history, never could utilize.
While GDP is already an obsolete statistic, we can see how bigger numbers are in the future. Simply understanding the concept of the "AI factory", the subject of a future article, shows how things will expand.
Democratize AI
Understanding the potential explosion in economic output due to AI and robotics is only one piece of the puzzle. Many see this yet sit back and watch Big Tech insert itself directly at the epicenter. If one owns stock in some of the companies that will dominate, that is of help, at least at an individual level.
However, this is not going to help the vast majority of the population.
For this, we need to democratize AI. This means having the means of production owned in a different manner. I describe it as communial ownership. In other worlds, token owners have stake in the networks where these systems are emerging.
Of course, to achieve this, AI has to be built on top of decentralized networks. X, Amazon, Saleforce, and Microsoft implementing them isn't going to help the majority of the world.
Tokenization is one approach that will achieve that end.
One vital criteria to envisioning this is the fact it will go in thousands of directions. When AI agents reach the billions, with many of them decentralized, the opportunities for people will be enormous. To move in that direction, like everything in the digital world, it boils down to data.
The next article will discuss the AI factory and how that will aid greatly in this endeavor.
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I think pushing the agenda of AI taking out jobs is stupid. Just like the internet and computers instead of taking jobs is adding jobs and new businesses. 20 years ago all those Uber drivers, youtubers and tiktokers wasn't a thing. And you don't see millions of people fighting tooth and nails to get a paper stamp office jobs or a spot at the local UPS.
Even relatively unsophisticated, uneducated people find places on OnlyFans or with minimum investment launch a podcast. I agree not everyone make a living out of that immediately but that's just business and the ability of start up more complex businesses will become easier as AI start getting more and more dominated by humans.
I think the whole globe will get their web 1 moment where most of the money is online and most of the demand is online and people can sell their things online very easy and without the need o banks which has hurt the most of the societies in third world countries. Banks are slow and complicated to become a legit merchant in places like Nigeria or India or Brazil.
So pushing the truth is stupid.
The laborforce participation rate in the United States peaked in 1998; it peaked globally in 1990. That means less working age people, as a percentage of the total, are working today.
You fail to look at the jobs destroyed. In the US, manufacturing jobs are down 6 million from their peak (yet we output more).
Have you noticed all the layoffs at the tech companies even though their business is seeing record revenues? What does that tell you? Who do you think is integrating AI first?
That job destruction is a consequence of policy and you are just looking at the US. Jobs weren't destroyed, they were moved. They might have even been multiplied. Those numbers only measure jobs in one place. But globally these jobs multiplied around the world.
So the 10k employee factory in the US became a 100k employee factory in china. For example.
Poverty around the world has been reduced in the last 100 years from 60% of the population in 1950 to less than 15% in 2017. That destruction is greatly because the expansion of manufacturing around the world as the countries with most growth has been countries with a growing manufacturing.
As for the US (and Europe) despite the doom and gloom narrative has been great as far as economic growth has been thanks to tech. From dot com bubble to web 2.0, to mobile revolution, to SAAS/cloud development, there has been more and more diversity in the job marketplace.
AI like most data innovation will just make new markets and new ways to make money. The switch from physical things to digital things will just accelerate and the money behind it will multiply around the world.
Right now there is a whole slew of AI frameworks and AI agents like ElizaOS, Boltz, Agent Zero, n8n competing for AI dominance. My point is that talent will be there and come from everywhere in the world.
Going back to manufacturing is that nobody had this reaction when 3D printing took over and made it easy to manufacture things like machinery parts and houses from almost anywhere. Just like the printing press and the people opposing it, mainly religious people like Mormons in the US and Muslims in the middle east.
I think AI is getting a similar treatment like click n mortar destroying the brick and mortar, open source being a cancer of the industry and Bitcoin being rat poison and a scam. So yeah I am calling it stupid.
If AI was uber, you'll be like those taxi drivers claiming taking people around on their own car is illegal and the government should ban it. Or the banks saying Bitcoin should be banned.
The reason tech layoffs have been a lot more due to over-hiring after the covid. Those jobs were clearly overpayed because of 'the great resignation'. A lot of people during the covid ruling decided to retire, that pushed companies to scramble for talent which pushed the job market to overpay. 3 years later, the market has normalized and realize their staff was overpayed and could layoff and get rid of all those high paying jobs for more normal ones. AI was only the scape goat reason or even more a constructed narrative without actual data to back it up.
Or, we could continue to make the things while refusing to buy those things we made back from any boss/owners.
We made them, why would we sell them only to buy them back at a discount known as profits?
Robots only make the time required to keep the shelves full less for all of the workers.
This book did the math 120 years ago.
25,OOO hours from each of us is enough to let us all retire at 50 and not work before the age of 20.
Instead we endlessly chase the cheese in a rat race?
Sharing also makes it possible for small producers to flourish.
Don't want to retire at 50?
Do whatever makes you happy.
But, don't mind me, I'm sure crapitalism is the finest economic system, ever.
/S
the issue is the inflation that would cause. If everyone had 500k sitting there in assets it's value would be like 20k
Wonderful
Thanks for the acceptance
Wow! Simply wow !BBH