We discussed the demise of Hollywood a great deal over the past year. This is something that I followed closely. Unfortunately, in researching what is taking place, a lot of people opine about things that, while prevalent, are not the main component.
Essentially, they are focusing upon the flower made of icing instead of the cake.
In this article, I will detail how this is a technological shift. There are two majors breakthroughs that are causing the transition. This was covered in separate articles but it is best to summarize it in one.
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Web 3.0 And The Demise of Hollywood
Most are aware of the influence Hollywood wielded over the past century. When it came to entertainment, this was the world's epicenter. Both movie and television was tied to this. People all over the world watched American shows and films.
This, naturally, led to a great deal of influence. We can see this from a cultural perspective as an entire industry around actors/actresses sprung up. It became a reinforcing system as movie stars, for example, were interviewed on television shows.
There is also the economic might.
Companies behind these productions were worth hundreds of billions. The money generated from a successful television show could yield enormous paydays (and royalties) for some actors. Directors and producers also become very wealthy.
It was a very powerful system that was without rival for decades.
This all changed 30 years ago.
The Fragmentation of Media - Distribution
The introduction of the Internet changed everything. It was not realized at the time but a major shift occurred instantly.
Suddenly, the monopoly on content distribution was broken. This was previously the domain of these Hollywood entities. They owned the networks and film companies.
We saw the first disruption in print. The late 1990s along with early 2000s saw the demise of many newspapers. When anyone could open up a Wordpress blog and become a "journalist", it was tough to compete. At the same time, the news was everywhere. Anytime people open up their email application, they got the headlines.
Video is a tougher animal. Due to technological limitations, it lagged for a long time.
This media type is very heavy. To distribute it, a lot of bandwidth is required. It is really not practical to do a lot on dial-up. We also have to take into account the cost of storage.
In 2005, all of this was prohibitive. As we enter the middle of the 2020s, things are a lot different.
Ironically, this is something that is not talked about when discussing this topic. As we will see, even those in Hollywood failed to address it (even if there was nothing they could do about it).
The Fragmentation of Media - Content Creation
This is starting to get a lot of attention.
When YouTube first become popular, it did so because of videos of people's cats or kids doing cute stuff. There was also the uploading of copyright material that Google opted to ignore.
The original content was amateur. Most of it was crap. This is no different than the early days of blogging. Most were not worth reading.
What makes this dangerous, though, is the sheer volume. This is something that is only growing today.
Newspapers were screwed by the quality of the content was sufficient for most readers. There was a subsection of the crap that was worth the time to read. The same is true for video.
Even if 95% of YouTube content is worthless, that 5% uploaded daily far outpaces what Hollywood produces in a year.
The defense was always quality. It is difficult to find a video on YouTube that matches CNN or ESPN (unless you are watching one of their clips). That said, people are not applying the same standard.
Social video means that we ask if this is worth 5-15 minutes of our time. The need for "studio" quality is not required. If what the person saying of interest to me. Of course, this gets even lower with TikTok and shorts.
While the standard was lowered, the technology is accelerating. Here is where generative AI enters. This is a topic that could have its own article.
Basically, we are looking at the gap closing over the next few years with regards to quality. The strikes of a year ago saw this as a major topic. They are dealing with the upcoming disruption even if they overlooked the last one.
Generative AI
Generative AI is all the rage.
At the moment, some are espousing "AI will be everything". This might be true at some point but, at present, we are dealing with basically an information generator. Many are looking at it like an answering machine, which it can do albeit with issue.
These are not good for those tasks which require precise, up-to-the-moment answers that take a lot of time to verify. The opposite, however, is where they excel.
This makes them great creative assistants. Here is where Hollywood implodes.
We already saw how the sheer volume of content is destructive. Google is the leading streaming platform even though the overwhelming majority of the content is lagging far behind Hollywood quality.
Here is the June Nielson ratings for streaming in the US. Notice how Google has a sizeable lead.
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The major hit that is forthcoming is when every content creator has a generative AI assistant to enhance the quality of the output. This is already affecting text and will, at some point, move into the video realm. Of course, Hollywood studios are already countering by incorporating it into their practices.
As Web 3.0 starts to accelerate, we see AI becoming a bigger part of the process. A simple video, for example, could have AI generated music in the background at times. Or there could be sound effects places to accent what the speaker is saying.
Hollywood studios are already a mess and this process is just starting.
Disruption has a proven track record. There is also a path it follows. When it comes to generative AI, we see where it is already flowing. Unfortunately for Hollywood, this tool is ideal for what it creates.
As this becomes available to more people, while also improving with each generation, we can see how the spread will take place.
A lot of what we saw as constant within Hollywood is going to be upended. It is what disruption does.
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I really hope this forces Hollywood to get back to basics, such as good stories and focusing on what people will actually want to see instead of depending on effects.
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I have a feeling Hollywood will do that but it is going to be too little, too late. The problem is not what they are doing, it is the fact that two technological shifts took place that screwed them.
The first was the breakup on the distribution monopoly and the second is AI.
Generative AI main weapon Sora coming out this year and many projects surrounding Generative AI is going to completely shut down the hollywood engine somehow in the near future unless they them selves use these new technologies or bring in innovations of their own but things are looking on the downside as this is complete disruption case.
The path of disruption is clear. We see it repeating itself over and over. There is a reason why Hollywood studios are dead.
Disruption doesnt care.
Here's my prediction: paraphrasing the catchphrase: idea is king The more high quality noise and spam will get produced by AI, the more valuable an original and solid idea will become. So with that said, perhaps the end of Hollywood won't come that soon after all.
Disclaimer: I love Hollywood, have a paid cinema subscription and watch things via streaming services, so you can consider me biased if you wish, but idea is the king is what I firmly believe in.
The numbers work against Hollywood. When you have that much content produced, some of it apt to be good. So that is working against Hollywood.
Disruption means these companies (studios) are in hot water. There is a reason why companies/industries get disrupted.
Everyone in Hollywood is in hot water all the time; if you get spotlight in whatever capacity even for a moment, that's already a lot. I think it's been like that for quite some time now but no disruption has come. If there is one thing folks in Hollywood are good at, it's embracing new technologies and reinventing their thing. So I'm quite skeptical about your predictions and anticipation.
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I couldn't agree more! The entertainment machine that was Hollywood is falling apart. I already know several screen writers that use AI not to write a script, but bounce ideas at it to find new directions to pursue in the writing. The day will come that the majority of scripts will be AI generated.
Another thing that I foresee in the future is web 3.0 actually funding movies and television shows completely cutting out the old production companies. Things are definitely going to get interesting in the entertainment sector over the next decade!
AI or not, the screenwriters will still have a competition. If anything, AI might add another layer of competition, let's tentatively call it how to train your model ...
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BEER.There will always be a writer pulling the strings like a puppet master, screen writer's union will see to that one for sure!
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The second idea is something I pondered but havent written about since most still dont buy into the idea of Hollywood consolidating and studios going south. It is a concept that many find too unbelievable.
Your experience with a screen writer seems to be what is taking place. It is changing everything.
The world is changing... The giants of yesterday will slowly begin to disappear or adapt and survive. It's going to be interesting!
I agree. Sora's video demoes really showed the potential of AI generated video, and it is only the beginning. A lot of people are already having difficulty distinguishing AI art, so AI video will eventually follow. I do think that making a movie will still take years, but commercials and short videos are definitely going to come out soon.
They are impressive from what I saw. We will see what the software looks like when it is released.
Hahaha, Web 3.0 and AI are shaking up Hollywood’s old guard. Content is certainly going to evolve and I'm excited to be part of the next big things
Not sure it is Web3 since we are barely getting started.
Hollywood seems to find it hard to thrive in an era where no talent is the new talent.