Wars are fought over it. Trillions of dollars were spent in the Middle East to ensure the United States, and its allies, had access. Over the last few centuries, the world was basically divided by the haves and have nots. Of course, it came down to having it.
What is the it? Energy.
In this era, that usually meant oil but it could apply to a variety of things. Ultimately, a nation's productivity and, hence, the standard of living is dependent upon having enough energy to power one's economy. Without it, economic productivity is going to collapse.
This is the headwind, one of many, the EU is facing. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the region is seeing a massive disruption to the flow of energy. The blowing up of the pipeline, most likely at the request of the US only added to burden.
Nevertheless, these are relatively near terms issues. On a macro timeframe, we have to project at least a decade out.
Major Disruption
This is a market that is going to face major disruption over the next couple decades.
How this all ends up looking is yet to be determined. Many believe we know where the future of energy is going but it is up in the air at the moment. A lot of money is being invested into the sector so we can presume advancement will be made.
One thing we can count on is that disruption, brought on by technology, ends up having a deflationary impact. Prices are coninually pushed down as capabilities are increased. We can only conclude this will occur with energy also.
It quickly becomes obvious the impact this can have. Most of economic productivity is tied in some way to energy. Regardless of what it is produced from, electricity if vital to the advancement of economies. As technology progresses in this area, so does the ability to create abundance.
When we think about the price difference in developed countries today compared to 100 years ahead, we can see how much different things are.
So what does the next generation of energy hold for us? However it unfolds, we are surely to see a major increase in productivity.
Abundance
Technology moves us towards abundance. It is multi-generational and evolves over long periods of time.
The Internet created a host of abundance in many areas of our lives. When we look at information, there is more than any of us can consume in 10,000 lifetimes. Communications allows us to interact with people all over the world at minimal (to no) cost. Just think about the money it would have cost in the 1980s to hold a Zoom call among 4 people in different countries. We take it for granted yet this would have required a host of specialized equipment, multiple phone lines, and a healthy long-distance charge for audio communications.
Yet today, we pay a minimal monthly fee and can host these calls, in video no less.
We can say the same about blockchain and cryptocurrency. The payment market generates $1.7 trillion per year. Think about how much of an impact that has on people.
Now we have a system with Hive whereby people can send a currency like the Hive Backed Dollar (HBD) with no direct transaction fees.
Information, finance, and energy. We see the same trends in all of them. Technology advances and generates abundance. People seem to overlook this fact yet that is why standards of living keep rising.
Think about this: a person with the cheapest of smart phones and a connection to the Internet have more information available than Ronald Reagan when he was President. That is how is progressed.
We also have the idea of spending money on encyclopedias as an outdated idea. Yet, well-to-do families in developed countries use to spend $1,000-$2,000 per set. Now, all the information is online for free.
Energy is one of the most important areas of any economy. This is one that could end up radically transforming over the next few decades. Once that happens, we could expect an alteration to society.
This will likely lead to much higher levels of economic productivity. Things that are paid for today will be free. Just like with information, we can expect some kind of energy disruption leading to much lower prices and greater output.
Will a radical transformation of energy lead to abundance? It would be in keeping with technological trends.
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We may be moving toward energy abundance but I don't really think it's that fast. It will take time and I wonder if the focus on coal/gas for now will last for how long. I know Tesla and other options are making them more efficient.
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I always though Energy as another form of currency.
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