1/ I think the #fed is done raising interest rates. They will call it a pause but it will not be. It is the end. Market/economic conditions will be such where they have to reverse course soon.
I believe that at this moment they should follow the example of Brazil (keep the interest rate stable for a long time) as this would be the best result for the long term.
2/ We are likely looking at the risk on sentiment taking over as we head into the second half of the year. Liquidity will be provided to the markets, coming from different places. This will excite the market.
3/ more liquidity means asset prices go up. The reserves mean nothing but the fed is starting to funnel money in different ways. Expect more balance sheet expansion, causing the market to drool.
I believe that at this moment they should follow the example of Brazil (keep the interest rate stable for a long time) as this would be the best result for the long term.
The difference is that in Brazil there is no bank failure, so maybe they will choose to lower the interest rate soon
Yes the fact the US banks have liquidity issues is at the core of this. Long duration bonds have no market. The #fed needs to step it up.
It could be the start of a Bull market if the money printing resumes.
It could slow the decline we are experiencing, but the decline could continue.
Well money printing is not what people think anyway so they are screwed using that metric since they dont know what it means.
True.
Do you think it will promote a Bitcoin surge?
Bitcoin will run when tech does. It is a risk on asset. Too many think it is a flight to safety; it is not. The last year plus proved that.
2/ We are likely looking at the risk on sentiment taking over as we head into the second half of the year. Liquidity will be provided to the markets, coming from different places. This will excite the market.
3/ more liquidity means asset prices go up. The reserves mean nothing but the fed is starting to funnel money in different ways. Expect more balance sheet expansion, causing the market to drool.
4/ Raoul Pal claims the move is technology and crypto. Both outperform in this environment. I tend to agree with him.
The bear will be over, likely in a couple months.
5/ Just one person's opinion.