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Part 1/7:

Pete Alonzo’s Ranking Among MLB First Basemen: An In-Depth Analysis

In the off-season discussions surrounding the New York Mets, a primary focus has been whether Pete Alonzo is still deserving of being paid as one of the best first basemen in baseball. Today, we take a closer look at Alonzo's place among his peers and evaluate where he stands in terms of performance, potential contract value, and overall contribution to the team.

Overview of the First Baseman Landscape

As the new baseball season approaches, a committee at Just Baseball actively compiles top ten lists by position, leading to a thoughtful consideration of each player's ranking. The analysis considers several metrics, and it’s essential to ground our discussion in statistical context.

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In approaching the first base position, the conversation quickly narrows down to three standout players: Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Freddie Freeman. Each of these players boasts impressive stats, ranging from batting averages to runs created plus (WRC+), which measures hitting based on league average.

The Top Contenders

Bryce Harper

Harper, who switched from outfield to playing first base recently, clearly occupies the top spot among first basemen. His 2023 season was stellar, with a batting average of .285, an OBP of .373, a slugging percentage of .525, and a WRC+ of 145. He finished with 30 home runs, supporting his value with solid defensive performance, highlighted by five defensive runs saved.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Next is Guerrero Jr., the youngest of the trio, whose youth and talent make his $340 million contract negotiations notable. He hit .323 with a 396 OBP and also belted 30 home runs but boasted a superior WRC+ of 165. While not recognized for his defense, his batting prowess makes him a potent option.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman's consistent performance over the last decade establishes him as a critical figure in the first base hierarchy. He maintains an impressive skill set, and while some experts debate whether he's still in the top ranks, his steadiness and playoff experience keep him relevant.

Analyzing Pete Alonzo

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After Harper, Guerrero Jr., and Freeman, Pete Alonzo emerges as a subject of curiosity and debate. His blend of power hitting continues to elevate his status. Alonzo's past three seasons showcase 120 home runs and a respectable 337 RBIs, hinting at his offensive capabilities being on par with some of the best.

However, the question remains: is he still a Top 5 first baseman? Statistically, Alonzo has advantages, particularly in home runs—and if one carefully examines OPS and WRC+, Alonzo holds a respectable position. Yet, the argument can be made for his performance being overshadowed by players like Matt Olson.

Matt Olson and the Competition

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The discussion about Alonzo's standing intensifies when Olson's name is invoked. Olson had a remarkable year with an MVP nomination in 2023. While he and Alonzo have had similar offensive outputs, Olson’s elite defensive abilities give him the necessary edge.

The rankings culminate with Alonzo placed at number five, but this ranking is densely populated with competitive players such as Christian Walker, who has gained credibility thanks to a strong 2023 season.

The Contract Conundrum

As Alonzo’s current contract negotiations unfold, the conversation only deepens regarding his place among first basemen. His ask for a potentially lucrative deal similar to the top-tier players is met with skepticism, especially considering his comparative performances.

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When comparing contract expectations with player performance, the numbers show significant disparities between Alonzo and the top four first basemen. Harper and Freeman, as well as Olson with his solid performance and ongoing contracts, create a challenging environment for Alonzo's negotiations.

Christian Walker recently signed a three-year, $60 million deal, which sets a possible benchmark for Alonzo. Reports reveal that Alonzo might be contemplating a three-year, $90 million offer, reflecting a desperate yet strategic approach to secure financial stability without gambling excessively on future performance.

Conclusion

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As the season approaches, Pete Alonzo's role begins to unfold further amidst these rankings and discussions. He occupies a prominent yet contested spot within the upper echelon of first baseman. Alonzo is unequivocally a top-five player, but he resides at the forefront of a rapidly evolving tier of first basemen.

Ultimately, whether Alonzo can progress beyond a mere place within this second tier will depend greatly on his performance in the coming season, as well as how the market values him against similarly skilled players. The ongoing dialogue continues with keen anticipation, making this an intriguing narrative to follow for the Mets and baseball fans alike.