Trump’s potential impact on emerging and disruptive technologies
Experts discuss tech-related issues and policies like AI, drones, and misinformation and disinformation under a Trump presidency.
In a stunning comeback, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election and will serve as the 47th president of the United States. Like all presidents, Trump’s (second) term in office will impact many aspects of policy and economy. This includes technology, a sector where the president elect will be sure to have input from allies—including, prominently, Silicon Valley magnates Elon Musk and Peter Thiel—all of whom will have their own motivations.
What exactly happens in the next four years with regard to a slew of tech-related issues and policies—among them artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles (i.e. drones), and cyber-based misinformation and disinformation—remains to be seen. But given Trump’s statements and previous record, experts in disruptive technologies have some idea of what might be coming. We asked a variety of those experts to weigh in and will be publishing their responses as they come in.
AI regulation
What kind of AI regulation should we expect from a second Trump administration? Here are three related sources of evidence that bear on this question. First, consider the Trump campaign’s own statements. Trump has said he’d repeal the “radical leftwing” Biden Executive Order on AI on day one. It’s unclear what material effect this will have: Federal agencies will continue to exercise oversight on many aspects of AI deployment in the normal course of business. But the anti-regulatory rhetoric is very clear, and the issue is slowly being made partisan, despite widespread public support for meaningful regulation, even among Republicans.
But widespread public support is insufficient to motivate regulatory action: A comfortable majority of Americans have wanted stricter gun regulation for the past decade. Second, consider likely agency staffing. Trump hasn’t said who he’ll put in charge of national AI policy in his second term, but among his most vocal backers (and funders) are Silicon Valley venture capitalists such as Marc Andreessen, a self-described “techno-optimist” and “AI accelerationist” who wants to transform humanity into a race of “technological supermen.” Such associations are very unlikely to be entirely unconsulted when the Trump administration decides who is in charge of how fast large technology companies are allowed to move, and what things they are allowed to break.
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