The Market's Shifting Landscape: Navigating the Risks and Rewards in the Final Weeks of 2024
As the year 2024 draws to a close, the stock market finds itself in a unique position. With the S&P 500 on pace for a second straight 20% annual gain, investors are grappling with the question of how the risk/reward equation will play out in the remaining six weeks of the calendar year.
Separating the Trump Trades
According to Lauren Goodwin, the market is currently trying to discern which of the "Trump trades" to fade and which to follow. The key, she suggests, is to focus on the trades that are not solely supported by potential policy changes, but rather those that are rooted in underlying economic trends that may be accentuated by the new administration's policies.
Goodwin expects to see increased volatility and higher levels of inflation and interest rates over the next several quarters. This is driven not only by stronger economic data but also the likelihood of policy support from the new administration in these areas. As market rates move higher, this poses a challenge for equities, both from a valuation perspective and in terms of real economic activity.
Rotation and Opportunity
Avery Shenfeld observes that the market has been experiencing a rotation, with not all up days being "buy everything" type of days, and down days being more mixed. This suggests the market is trying to separate groups that are more or less advantaged in the current environment.
Shenfeld sees potential opportunities in certain cyclical stocks that are still trading cheaply, as if a recession might be on the horizon. However, he cautions that if interest rates remain elevated, it could be very challenging for certain areas, particularly in housing and some industrials that are pricing in a resurgence of demand next year.
Shenfeld attributes the distinction between the market's love for some cyclicals and its neglect of others to the perception of industry structure. Stocks in sectors like housing are seen as having a structural deficit, leading the market to project any positivity onto them. However, Shenfeld argues that affordability is the real driver of housing, and if that doesn't materialize, these stocks could face challenges.
In the final weeks of 2024, investors will need to navigate this shifting landscape, separating the trades that are likely to persist from those that may be more vulnerable to policy and economic changes. As the market continues to rotate and adjust, identifying the right opportunities and managing the evolving risks will be crucial for navigating the remainder of the year.
Part 1/4:
The Market's Shifting Landscape: Navigating the Risks and Rewards in the Final Weeks of 2024
As the year 2024 draws to a close, the stock market finds itself in a unique position. With the S&P 500 on pace for a second straight 20% annual gain, investors are grappling with the question of how the risk/reward equation will play out in the remaining six weeks of the calendar year.
Separating the Trump Trades
According to Lauren Goodwin, the market is currently trying to discern which of the "Trump trades" to fade and which to follow. The key, she suggests, is to focus on the trades that are not solely supported by potential policy changes, but rather those that are rooted in underlying economic trends that may be accentuated by the new administration's policies.
Part 2/4:
Volatility in Inflation and Interest Rates
Goodwin expects to see increased volatility and higher levels of inflation and interest rates over the next several quarters. This is driven not only by stronger economic data but also the likelihood of policy support from the new administration in these areas. As market rates move higher, this poses a challenge for equities, both from a valuation perspective and in terms of real economic activity.
Rotation and Opportunity
Avery Shenfeld observes that the market has been experiencing a rotation, with not all up days being "buy everything" type of days, and down days being more mixed. This suggests the market is trying to separate groups that are more or less advantaged in the current environment.
Part 3/4:
Shenfeld sees potential opportunities in certain cyclical stocks that are still trading cheaply, as if a recession might be on the horizon. However, he cautions that if interest rates remain elevated, it could be very challenging for certain areas, particularly in housing and some industrials that are pricing in a resurgence of demand next year.
Industry Structure and Affordability
Part 4/4:
Shenfeld attributes the distinction between the market's love for some cyclicals and its neglect of others to the perception of industry structure. Stocks in sectors like housing are seen as having a structural deficit, leading the market to project any positivity onto them. However, Shenfeld argues that affordability is the real driver of housing, and if that doesn't materialize, these stocks could face challenges.
In the final weeks of 2024, investors will need to navigate this shifting landscape, separating the trades that are likely to persist from those that may be more vulnerable to policy and economic changes. As the market continues to rotate and adjust, identifying the right opportunities and managing the evolving risks will be crucial for navigating the remainder of the year.