[Feature] Prediction Market
Polymarket has seen incredible success. INLEO is a social platform with built-in monetization features. This means we could also have a prediction market where people can vote using liquid LEO, HIVE or HBD on various public outcomes.
Why Build it?
A new form of System Income: a small % fee could be collected by the LEO Pool account.
Engagement - event-driven engagement can create a lot of positive site-time for users (in turn leads to more fun, ad revenue from page views, premium subs, etc.)
Premium use case? We could require premium in order to create a market (but not to vote in one)
How it Would Work
To launch a Prediction Market, you could require users to burn a small amount of LEO or send a small amount of LEO to Leo Pool. This can prevent spam creation of random prediction markets.
To make the decisions of outcomes decentralized, we can use Poll voting for the outcomes. Could do the poll in various ways:
Community Leaders are elected and it takes 3/5+ of them to vote to close a prediction market (results of a market are then closed by majority vote)
No leaders are elected and instead, a community-majority vote is required over a 24 hour period (same way normal Polls work right now)
Example:
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Imagine if INLEO had a prediction market for the upcoming U.S. Election. It was created by XYZ user by sending 10 LEO (or HBD/HIVE, etc.) to @leopool as the creation fee.
The creator sets 2 possible outcomes. (Kamala or Trump to win the U.S. election). They then can set the initial voting fee for each. The fee is dynamic to the current winner % (this creates the odds).
The creator also has to choose when the market closes (i.e. 1 day before the end of the election, date when winner is announced).
After the election is over, a poll is initiated by the creator of the market (or autonomously by the prediction contract). That poll is then voted on using 1 of the 2 implementations mentioned above (either community leader-based voting or community-based voting) to vote on the actual outcome of what happened IRL.
Once closed, the voted crypto (HBD, HIVE or LEO) is sent out accordingly based on votes.