A Comprehensive Look at the Challenges of AI Safety
Introduction
Connor Ley, the CEO of Conjecture, a startup working on the technical problem of AI control, joins us today to discuss the critical issue of AI safety. Conjecture aims to build useful AI products while also conducting the necessary R&D to answer the question of how we can build AI systems that are understandable, controllable, and do not lead to the risks of unaligned AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
Connor acknowledges that AI safety is an incredibly hard problem, one that is often seen as unsolvable due to the immense resources required. However, he argues that this is precisely why it is so important to address. Replacing complex human systems and problems with software is an enormously challenging task, and we must be realistic about the current state of software development and cybersecurity practices.
There is a race happening right now, with people and organizations rushing to develop AGI as quickly as possible, often cutting corners on safety. Connor provides his personal timelines, suggesting a 30% probability of seeing an AGI system by 2027, 50% by 2030, and 99% by 2100, with a small chance that an AGI system has already been developed and is being kept secret.
Connor identifies several ideological drivers behind this race, including utopists who believe AGI will create a perfect utopia, zealots who want humanity to be replaced by AI, accelerationists who believe technology should be allowed to advance without regulation, and opportunists who are simply looking to make money. He argues that these ideologies, combined with the involvement of major tech companies, are fueling the dangerous push towards AGI development without adequate safeguards.
Connor emphasizes that a good future does not happen by default – it requires active effort and hard work. He argues that there are no "adults in the room" when it comes to AI development, and that we as a society must take responsibility for shaping the future we want.
This means demanding responsible development of AI systems, building the necessary institutional capacities and regulatory frameworks, and engaging with policymakers and the public to ensure a just process for deciding the future. Connor believes that individuals and private entities should not be allowed to unilaterally impose their vision of the future on society, and that a collective, democratic process is essential.
The compendium produced by Conjecture is a crucial tool in this effort, providing a comprehensive overview of the AI safety challenge and potential solutions. Connor encourages readers to engage with the compendium, provide feedback, and get involved in the broader effort to build a good future with powerful AI systems.
Part 1/4:
A Comprehensive Look at the Challenges of AI Safety
Introduction
Connor Ley, the CEO of Conjecture, a startup working on the technical problem of AI control, joins us today to discuss the critical issue of AI safety. Conjecture aims to build useful AI products while also conducting the necessary R&D to answer the question of how we can build AI systems that are understandable, controllable, and do not lead to the risks of unaligned AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
Connor acknowledges that AI safety is an incredibly hard problem, one that is often seen as unsolvable due to the immense resources required. However, he argues that this is precisely why it is so important to address. Replacing complex human systems and problems with software is an enormously challenging task, and we must be realistic about the current state of software development and cybersecurity practices.
The Race to AGI
[...]
Part 2/4:
There is a race happening right now, with people and organizations rushing to develop AGI as quickly as possible, often cutting corners on safety. Connor provides his personal timelines, suggesting a 30% probability of seeing an AGI system by 2027, 50% by 2030, and 99% by 2100, with a small chance that an AGI system has already been developed and is being kept secret.
Connor identifies several ideological drivers behind this race, including utopists who believe AGI will create a perfect utopia, zealots who want humanity to be replaced by AI, accelerationists who believe technology should be allowed to advance without regulation, and opportunists who are simply looking to make money. He argues that these ideologies, combined with the involvement of major tech companies, are fueling the dangerous push towards AGI development without adequate safeguards.
Building a Good Future
[...]
Part 3/4:
Connor emphasizes that a good future does not happen by default – it requires active effort and hard work. He argues that there are no "adults in the room" when it comes to AI development, and that we as a society must take responsibility for shaping the future we want.
This means demanding responsible development of AI systems, building the necessary institutional capacities and regulatory frameworks, and engaging with policymakers and the public to ensure a just process for deciding the future. Connor believes that individuals and private entities should not be allowed to unilaterally impose their vision of the future on society, and that a collective, democratic process is essential.
[...]
Part 4/4:
The compendium produced by Conjecture is a crucial tool in this effort, providing a comprehensive overview of the AI safety challenge and potential solutions. Connor encourages readers to engage with the compendium, provide feedback, and get involved in the broader effort to build a good future with powerful AI systems.