Past shutdowns have not been a huge deal for financial markets, with investors pointing to how U.S. economic growth recovered after funding was restored. But any clearing of uncertainty can be helpful when so much of it has been sending the U.S. stock market on big, scary swings not just day to day but also hour to hour.
The heaviest uncertainty lies with President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. There, the main question is how much pain Trump will let the economy endure through tariffs and other policies in order to reshape the country and world as he wants. The president has said he wants manufacturing jobs back in the United States, along with a smaller U.S. government workforce and other fundamental changes.