Tesla Valuation: Unpacking the Wall Street Perspective
Analyzing Wall Street's Tesla Forecasts
Gary Black, from Future Fund, shared his insights on how Wall Street analysts typically calculate their forecasts for Tesla's valuation and stock price. He explained that many Tesla investors still inflate the company's valuation and stock price, but his view is that Tesla's earnings estimates and valuation have declined over the past two years as the company's 2024 earnings per share fell by around 60%.
However, Black believes that as Tesla's auto gross margins bottom out and the company launches a new $25-30,000 compact model to increase its total addressable market (TAM), analysts will start increasing their earnings per share estimates again. This, in turn, should lead to higher analyst valuations and price targets for Tesla's stock.
Unpacking the "Covid Surge Pricing" Effect
Jeff Lutz provided a detailed explanation of the "Covid surge pricing" phenomenon that impacted the auto industry. He described how supply chain disruptions and material shortages during the pandemic led to increased costs for automakers, which they then passed on to consumers through higher prices.
Lutz argued that Tesla was able to navigate this challenge faster than its competitors, allowing the company to make "price corrections" earlier than others. This was not due to Tesla wanting to increase volume, as some analysts had suggested, but rather a necessary adjustment to reflect the changing input costs and supply chain conditions.
Comparing Tesla's Valuation to GM and Waymo
Some have questioned why Tesla's valuation is so much higher than that of traditional automakers like GM and the self-driving company Waymo (owned by Alphabet). Lutz provided a nuanced perspective, explaining that Tesla's vertically integrated approach, its battery technology, supercharging network, and progress in autonomous driving all contribute to its higher valuation.
He emphasized that Tesla is not just an automaker, but a company that is "leaving the Auto industry" and moving towards a future where software, services, and autonomous capabilities are key drivers of value. This makes it difficult to simply compare Tesla to traditional automakers using conventional valuation metrics.
The Importance of Nvidia's Potential Investment in Elon Musk's xAI
The news that Nvidia is in talks to potentially invest in Elon Musk's xAI startup was discussed. Lutz highlighted the importance of the speed and efficiency with which Elon and his team are able to build AI factories and infrastructure, which he believes is unmatched in the industry. This, combined with the potential synergies between Nvidia's technology and xAI's initiatives, could make the investment a strategic move for Nvidia.
Warren Buffett's Cash Accumulation and Buyback Halt
Finally, the panel examined Warren Buffett's recent actions, including the sale of over $100 billion in Apple stock, the halt of Berkshire Hathaway's stock buybacks, and the growth of the company's cash balance to a record $325 billion. Lutz emphasized the need to look at Buffett's cash position relative to Berkshire's market capitalization, rather than just the absolute cash figure.
He noted that Berkshire's cash as a percentage of its market cap, while high, is not necessarily an outlier compared to historical levels. Lutz cautioned against reading too much into Buffett's moves in the short term, given the investor's long-term track record of success.
Overall, this discussion provided a comprehensive analysis of the various factors influencing the valuation of Tesla and other companies, as well as insights into the strategic decisions being made by industry leaders like Elon Musk and Warren Buffett.
Part 1/7:
Tesla Valuation: Unpacking the Wall Street Perspective
Analyzing Wall Street's Tesla Forecasts
Gary Black, from Future Fund, shared his insights on how Wall Street analysts typically calculate their forecasts for Tesla's valuation and stock price. He explained that many Tesla investors still inflate the company's valuation and stock price, but his view is that Tesla's earnings estimates and valuation have declined over the past two years as the company's 2024 earnings per share fell by around 60%.
Part 2/7:
However, Black believes that as Tesla's auto gross margins bottom out and the company launches a new $25-30,000 compact model to increase its total addressable market (TAM), analysts will start increasing their earnings per share estimates again. This, in turn, should lead to higher analyst valuations and price targets for Tesla's stock.
Unpacking the "Covid Surge Pricing" Effect
Jeff Lutz provided a detailed explanation of the "Covid surge pricing" phenomenon that impacted the auto industry. He described how supply chain disruptions and material shortages during the pandemic led to increased costs for automakers, which they then passed on to consumers through higher prices.
Part 3/7:
Lutz argued that Tesla was able to navigate this challenge faster than its competitors, allowing the company to make "price corrections" earlier than others. This was not due to Tesla wanting to increase volume, as some analysts had suggested, but rather a necessary adjustment to reflect the changing input costs and supply chain conditions.
Comparing Tesla's Valuation to GM and Waymo
Some have questioned why Tesla's valuation is so much higher than that of traditional automakers like GM and the self-driving company Waymo (owned by Alphabet). Lutz provided a nuanced perspective, explaining that Tesla's vertically integrated approach, its battery technology, supercharging network, and progress in autonomous driving all contribute to its higher valuation.
Part 4/7:
He emphasized that Tesla is not just an automaker, but a company that is "leaving the Auto industry" and moving towards a future where software, services, and autonomous capabilities are key drivers of value. This makes it difficult to simply compare Tesla to traditional automakers using conventional valuation metrics.
The Importance of Nvidia's Potential Investment in Elon Musk's xAI
Part 5/7:
The news that Nvidia is in talks to potentially invest in Elon Musk's xAI startup was discussed. Lutz highlighted the importance of the speed and efficiency with which Elon and his team are able to build AI factories and infrastructure, which he believes is unmatched in the industry. This, combined with the potential synergies between Nvidia's technology and xAI's initiatives, could make the investment a strategic move for Nvidia.
Warren Buffett's Cash Accumulation and Buyback Halt
Part 6/7:
Finally, the panel examined Warren Buffett's recent actions, including the sale of over $100 billion in Apple stock, the halt of Berkshire Hathaway's stock buybacks, and the growth of the company's cash balance to a record $325 billion. Lutz emphasized the need to look at Buffett's cash position relative to Berkshire's market capitalization, rather than just the absolute cash figure.
He noted that Berkshire's cash as a percentage of its market cap, while high, is not necessarily an outlier compared to historical levels. Lutz cautioned against reading too much into Buffett's moves in the short term, given the investor's long-term track record of success.
Part 7/7:
Overall, this discussion provided a comprehensive analysis of the various factors influencing the valuation of Tesla and other companies, as well as insights into the strategic decisions being made by industry leaders like Elon Musk and Warren Buffett.