Niall Ferguson rebuts John Mearsheimer: Don't Underestimate the China-Russia-Iran Axis
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Niall Ferguson rebuts John Mearsheimer: Don't Underestimate the China-Russia-Iran Axis
#niallferguson !summarize
Part 1/6:
The Looming Threat of a New Axis and the Decline of the Liberal World Order
The Divergence Between the US and Australia
As we approach the 50th anniversary of the founding of this great institution, we are also nearing the 50-year mark since Henry Kissinger had to contemplate whether the United States should give up on Australia. The relationship between Kissinger and then-Prime Minister Gough Whitlam was a tumultuous one, marked by Whitlam's criticism of the US bombing of North Vietnam and his desire to pull Australia out of the Vietnam War.
Part 2/6:
This tension between the US and Australia is not entirely a relic of the past. Last year, Professor John Mearsheimer's Neville Canard address, which was well-received in Australia, argued that the US focus on Ukraine and the Middle East was distracting it from the greater security threat posed by China. Mearsheimer advocated for a realist foreign policy approach that prioritized the containment of China over the security of democracies in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Challenging Mearsheimer's Worldview
Part 3/6:
While I share Mearsheimer's skepticism about the so-called "liberal international order," I profoundly disagree with his and Elbridge Colby's arguments that the US must prioritize the containment of China over the security of other democracies. Tonight, I will explain why they are wrong and what it means for Australia.
The Emergence of a New Axis
The biggest debate on foreign policy in recent years has been the debate within the Republican party over the wisdom of supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. This new realism within the Republican party, exemplified by figures like JD Vance, recognizes that the United States faces a new axis that unites Russia with China, Iran, and North Korea.
Part 4/6:
This axis is a genuine threat, akin to the one formed by Germany, Italy, and Japan before and during the Second World War. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are now openly cooperating to support Russia's war effort in Ukraine, supplying Putin's "Orc Army" with a plethora of weapons.
The Failure of Deterrence and the Threat of War
The failure to deter this new axis is a grave concern. As Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of the US Indo-Pacific command, has warned, China wants to offer the world a "short, sharp war" against Taiwan before the world can respond. This raises the specter of a Third World War, as the contest between the US and this new axis could easily turn hot.
The Importance of Rearmament and Deterrence
Part 5/6:
Deterrence depends on military readiness, and yet many of our allies, including Germany and Australia, are failing to adequately invest in their defense capabilities. This policy of appeasement is dangerous and must be addressed.
The Potential Return of a Realist Republican Foreign Policy
As the 2024 election approaches, the parallels between Donald Trump and Richard Nixon are striking. Like Nixon, Trump understands the limits of American power and the importance of carefully assessing national interests. He also regards most American allies as freeloaders who should pay their way in return for America's friendship and protection.
Part 6/6:
This means that allies like Australia need to brace themselves for the eventuality of a second Trump term, one in which there will be no more "Mr. Nice Guy." The potential for a drastic reassessment of the US-Australia relationship, as Kissinger and Nixon contemplated 50 years ago, looms large.