There’s widespread agreement there’s been impressive progress in AI/ML in the domains of vision, natural
language, and game playing in the last decade [Krizhevsky et al., 2012, Xie et al., 2016, Silver et al., 2018].
However, there’s massive disagreement as to how much progress in capabilities we should expect in the near
and long term [Grace et al., 2017]. For this reason, we believe measuring overall progress in AI/ML is a
crucial question, because it can ground the discussion in evidence. Measuring AI progress is critical to policymakers, economists, industry leaders, potential researchers, and others trying to navigate this disagreement
and decide how much money and attention to invest in AI.
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