Lumber futures eased toward $630 per thousand board feet, retreating from a two-and-a-half-year high of $658, as tariff policies from President Trump and retaliatory measures from Canada and the European Union strain global trade and stoke recession fears in the U.S. and Canada. However, the U.S. Producer Price Index recorded a softwood lumber surge of 11.7% over the past year, marking four consecutive months of double-digit annual growth. Tariff uncertainties have led builders to stockpile lumber to avoid potential tariffs on Canadian imports—a strategy that has historically pushed prices up by as much as 25%. Mills are preemptively hiking prices by 25% to 65% amid shifting trade policies and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, the Department of Commerce’s proposal to nearly triple anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood—from 14.5% to a potential 52%—adds further uncertainty, given that Canada supplies 30% of the softwood used in the U.S. for housing and furniture.
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