The Liquidity Cycle and Business Cycle:
The ISM Purchasing Managers Index follows a predictable 4-year cycle based on the debt maturity and liquidity injection schedule since 2008. This matches the presidential election and Bitcoin halving cycles.
The 4-year cycle can be broken down into annual "seasons" - spring, summer, fall, winter - based on liquidity injections and withdrawals. Asset prices follow these seasons.
Forecasting the ISM cycle and liquidity allows for forecasting of asset prices, especially for liquidity-driven assets like NASDAQ and crypto. Models suggest a potential peak in ISM in June 2025 and liquidity peak in Sept 2024.