There is a lot changing in the world. One of the areas that we focused our discussion upon is the shift in work. This is something that most can see happening in real time. Employers are trying to deal with the new paradigm, something radically different from the pre-COVID days.
Over the last few months, I outlined how we are also going to see a major transition in real estate. This is something that is going to get extremely competitive. Politicians and leaders who keep operating like they have a monopoly are going to end up destroying their cities and towns. Ultimately, this is going to be a global situation.
In fact, we are already seeing the early stages.
This is an idea I laid out in The Layout For The Globalization Of Real Estate.
Source
Bitcoin To Relocate To Arkansas
Anyone think of Arkansas as a high-tech center for the United States? There is Silicon Valley, Austin, and NW Arkansas? Not exactly what most people think.
Regardless of our viewpoint, there is a growing tech sector in the state that is looking to draw in more talent. For that reason, the offer is $10K worth of Bitcoin along with a bike to relocate to the state. This is an example of the competitive nature that is going to start arising as workers are sought.
“Northwest Arkansas is one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, and we’re now seeing more explosive growth in our tech sector,” Nelson Peacock, president and CEO of the Northwest Arkansas Council, said in a statement. “This expanded incentive offer — Bitcoin and a Bike — not only embraces the growing trend toward the use of cryptocurrency as a payment option by employers, but also helps increase our pipeline of talent to benefit tech employers, startups, cities, local businesses and the region overall.”
This is an updated version of an earlier initiative. The change is to pay in Bitcoin in an effort to tap into that aspect of the tech sector.
The original initiative, launched in November 2020, has generated over 35,000 applications from people in more than 115 countries and 50 states that wish to move to Northwest Arkansas and grab the cash bonus and the bike. Those who relocate can now opt for the incentive in bitcoin or cash and a street or mountain bike.
Not bad for a state like Arkansas. Evidently more than 35K people from around the world believe it is worthy of consideration.
We see this move on top of Italian cities that are paying people $33,000 to move there. Get ready, this is just the beginning.
Remote Work
The gamer changer is the concept of remote work. While the likes of Jamie Dimon and Tim Cook are trying to get people back into the office, the entire world is opening up to a completely new paradigm. No longer is it just employer and employee involved in the discussion. We are now seeing Mayors, Governors, and eventually, Presidents stepping up.
The fact people can work from anywhere means they can also live wherever is desired. Hence, the competition is going to ratchet up over the next couple decades. Cities and towns have great incentive to attract newer residents.
At the top of the list is the demographic issue many countries are facing. With a declining birthrate, many towns, especially smaller ones, face extinction. The goal is to attract newer residents even if bribery is necessary.
We see the same thing applying to those areas that seeking industry. It is not secret a talented workforce is required. Since many areas do not have it, they are going to turn to importing. No longer is it only products and raw materials that are imported. People, from all walks of life, will be targeted.
Part of the hypothesis regarding real estate is the simple fact that people are no longer going to flock to the expensive areas. The high cost of living is not worth what is being offered. As we can see, different geographic areas are starting to turn it into an incentive-based system. Those areas that try to operate according to the old model will find things change greatly over the next couple decades.
Certainly there are some who just have to live in a NYC, Boston, or London. For most however, this is not the case. The attraction to those areas was the high salaries that more than offset the cost of living. With the expansion of remote work, these areas could hold less allure to many people.
Here is where the transition of real estate is going to take place.
Global Real Estate Prices
Ultimately, we will see a drop in real estate prices. Of course, we have to keep in mind real estate is always a balancing act. Some areas will rise as others decrease. Nevertheless, the most valuable real estate in the world is going to get a haircut since it is the most populated ones.
In short, people are going to start migrating away from urban areas. This will reverse a trend that started 70 years ago.
Lower cost areas will see a jump in prices as more people move into them. In the 2030s, I predict, this will happen on a national level for many countries that target people in the developed countries. With a cost of living orders of magnitude cheaper, the potential to attract 250K residents making $65K-$70K (from a country like the US) exists. This can radically alter the economic outlook of many countries.
Before it goes global, my guess is we see a lot of movement within the nations themselves. This going to increase into the middle of the decade when I asset it will explode. By that time, the concept of work from home will be the norm for many industries. In other words, it will not even be questioned.
Areas that are built up and have huge budgets that need to be met are going to have trouble. These governments are not going to have monopolies on people any longer. For this reason, they are going to have to think more like businesses. This will be great for people who are willing to be mobile. For those who "just have to live somewhere", or are stuck, they are going to suffer.
The globalization of real estate is starting to come to life. It is in the very early stages right now yet it will consistently accelerate over the next decade. By 2035, I predict it will be in full bloom, with many living as "digital nomads". The ability to make money looking at a screen means people can do that from anywhere.
Quality of life and cost to achieve it are going to be important factors. The artificial urban real estate bubble is about to pop.
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I would have never thought the attention economy would begin with physical cities offering a bounty for people to move there. What a wild twist of fate.
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Yep. Areas need bodies, especially talented ones.
It is going to become a competitive environment.
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I'm just sayin'... I know how realt.co is built and handles their token sales... I can replicate if someone wants to be the money bags to get started... lol... wink wink
A lot that is going to take place with Real Estate and tokenization.
It is going to be interesting to watch how much resistance there is to change. A lot of hands in the real estate pie.
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For sure, I thought my hands were going to be in that pie too, but looks like things are falling through, at least for now, but that will change in the future, lol.
Feels like a lot of people are moving with the changes to what used to be every day life and with that we got the great real-estate boom. Going to be interesting here in a year or two when things start to cool off again. I have noticed a big trend taking up of more preppers and homesteaders looking to get away from all the crazy and kind of get back to the basics again. This entire situation of the last few years has really been a wake up call to many people. Imagine still taking in huge amount of city tax when people don't have jobs or lower paying jobs now. It's not going to happen over night but I think it's going to start shifting here soon. Makes me question if I should make some moves with my REITs I have.
Eventually I see this going international. It will take into the next decade though. In the meantime, we are going to see some interesting things happening with real estate within the US.
As for REITs, the only ones I would trust are those with exposure to industrial parks. I think they do well. For me, other commercial and residential are just too up in the air.
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I think that the best way to attract more workers to cities is to provide real estate and opportunities for them. Remote work is required in light of the current pandemic, but employment cannot be dispensed with.
Do you think it's better for the cities to offer incentives to get more people? I think it works more for the more labor intensive jobs because they tend to be the people who can't just do remote work. I guess it may be possible when these jobs die out due to automation though.
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I think many cities are going to have a problem. The ones who are locked in, like you said those who cant remote work, are going to suffer. I have a feeling those who can flee are going to.
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The ones who can flee have probably done so already. I remember all videos about people thinking that it was just time to leave the urban cities because it has lost its appeal and it is just much cheaper to no longer be there.
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Hard for many to flee. Those who want to are likely locked in. Only those who are knowledge workers can move unless people can somehow find a job where they are going.
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Everyone experience change and change is constant in life so for globalization of this changes in real estate it's amazing
@pixresteemer(1/10) gave you LUV.
interesting post… I also liked the concept of digital nomad
Yes it is. I am going to be putting together an article about that. We will try to tie it in together.
A lot of good stuff happening.
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I too am convinced that good things will happen ... we must resist until 2025
It's fascinating to think about what the population distribution will look like in ten years. Urban vs Rural is starting to flip. Why pay $2000 a month in rent when you ear your living on your laptop... you can work on a beach in thailand!
Things are certainly going to open up. The remote work movement is going to change a lot of things.
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People respond to incentives. Alaska has had an offer for people willing to relocate to the state. I can't remember the exact offer I think it is land and cash. A person would have to be a real Grizzley Adams :-D
To move to Alaska is going to require incentive. So yeah, they best start their own crypto.
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The remote work movement is going to help advance this.
One other idea is the digital nomad. This could foster in another era of migration.
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