Hello everyone! Today I want to show you guys my Multi-Year Bitcoin Cycle prediction based on the past Bitcoin cycles. The TLDR of all this is: 200,000$ give or take a few percentages.
The Big Picture
Bitcoin price moves in multi-year cycles, triggered by the halfings, which occur roughly every 4 years. After every halfing, there is what's called a "supply shock" that occurs because of the decreased mined supply of Bitcoin, thus Bitcoin's price rises to meet the demand outweighs the supply.
Bitcoin cycles follow a very neat Fibonacci retracement support and resistance pattern of key levels of resistance and key levels of support.
The First Meaningful Cycle
The June 2011 to November 2013 cycle, can be considered by many to be the first Bitcoin cycle. After a top in June 2011 Bitcoin was a steady drop (The Bear Market) of roughly 95% of its highest value at the time, where it bottomed out. Then came a long drawn-out period of relatively little price movement until the Halfing which happened in November 2012. Shortly after that Bitcoin went on a parabolic rise and ran into a strong level of resistance around 200$, then went on to drop around 80% and found an incredible level of support at the 1.272 Fib retracement level. After a long period of consolidation, it went on to melt through the previous ATH and then finally cool off at the 2.272 retracement line and enter the bear market and the next cycle.
History Doesn't Repeat Itself But it Rhymes
Guess what the next cycle held in store for us?
Look, the graph almost looks the same! This cycle was more steady and gradual after the bottom of its bear market, and look where we ended up at the end of that cycle... The 2.272 Fibonacci Retracement to then enter another Cycle and end up in another bear market.
Now, look what we have here! It's almost the same chart again! This is our current cycle, and you can see that, after explosive growth, we're now battling our way out of a pretty massive correction between the 1.272 and 1.414 levels. If we take the past couple of years and make an educated guess we can say that this looks a lot like the first cycle where we just barely held the 1.272 level for multiple weeks until an eventual explosive move to the 2.272 level.
So When's the Next ATH and How Much?
Well if we take the previous years as an example we can see that the cycle top will probably be the 2.272 level which is around 200,000$! We should expect this top around the end of the year or the start of next year(taking into account that cycles seem to increase in length).
That is all everyone! Hopefully, you are now aware of what to expect by the end of this year. I'll try to keep making blogs about how to trade the ups and downs in between to keep accumulating more and more crypto.
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice, I'm just a dude who loves to look at charts, not some hedgefund :)
Take everything I say with a tablespoon of salt.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
If you like my TA you can follow me, I'll try to do these on a somewhat daily basis!
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