Good day Hiveians!
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There are different ways to define a bear market
Personally, I am defining it as the time when price makes lower lows from the ATH and hits an ATL for the cycle. Price then reverses until it makes a new high for the cycle or an ATH. But it never goes back to make a newer low again during that phase. Yet this cycle seems to be a bit different.
Hive is trading at 28 cents again which is just 3 cents higher from the ATL of the cycle... With only a bit more than a year of the "bull market" left, it ain't looking great. I could say this for many other coins/tokens or projects though. The best alts, however, seem to be around 5-10x up form their ATL of the cycle.
Technically, we could still be in the accumulation/consolidation zone atm with the real alt season still before us. I definitely think this is still the case, but I am starting to wonder if it will be a complete dud. Maybe there is only a 5x in front of us? Maybe Hive will barely scratch $1 before heading down again? Would you sell "the top" at $1? Probably not. 99% will probably hodl and hope for higher highs just to see price make lower lows.
This chart from 2 months ago is still in play, but I have had to constantly lower the blue "support":
Worst case scenario
The wick in June of 2021 has been staring me in my face for several years. Deep in my mind I was thinking that the real ATL for the cycle should be under it. Not sure if this has any basis to it, but the thought has been there. It would mean that Hive would first have to go under 16 cents to finish the cycle. The true bear would then be an extensive 2+ years... is that unheard of?
This chart actually doesn't feel wrong. Everyone would panic I am sure, but if we actually go back to 15 cents or so, this would be in summer/fall, around 1 year before the end of the cycle. We would then have exactly a year to do the crazy gains we saw in 2021. If we get a same move this would catapult price to around $5.
I hope I am wrong (or am I?), I mean it would work out in the end, right?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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Great post! Read doubts, it will come I hope, we just need patience, I'm very sure otherwise it will disappoint against my SOL from 12 or silly PEPE did 16x.. Hive has something to prove! And I hope it does!
If so then we will mirror Steemit in previous cycle, a lower ATH.. I shared a chart once with this in mind, thats the bearcase as you say $1
Agree, a bear trap as last cycle as nov-dec 2020 (my blue scribbling :p)
I thought we are at the beginning of a bull market!
yep, me too 😅 but price is just not moving.
Too many new alt coins and meme coins to distract attention and energy! Competition!
This market has been a bit different from others having BTC out performing a lot of altcoins and others not moving for example Hive, for all of us who believe in the network and the multiple projects going around I dont think the market conditions at the moment matter that much, we were at similar levels on January, its odd considering how much BTC has gone up and down Hive remain on the same range above $0.24 now getting closer, good times to accumulate and I will remain doing so, no worries atm 😎✌️
I want hive to reach that $5, hive deserve it🥰
If the price was allowed to go back below .15 too many of the unwashed would back up their trucks and the sellers would feel the loss.
We can hope, but less than .2 is unlikely, imo.
If you look at the chart, it will never come together. Holding power is the main one. The key is not to exit until the target price is met under any circumstances. The market will try its best to get you out. @tobetada
I'm so disgusted in Hive price performance. It has stopped me from posting much any more. Hive looks like a failure or a manipulation by the devs. After 6 years here I've lost so much in btc value that I invested. What a sad blockchain. No growth. No real social engagement. No good posts. A few whales. That's all. So much potential but it's dead here. I'll never recommend it to anyone any more. I fear the worst. My wealth is all lost here. I have no faith in seeing the ATH around $3.