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I don't want to say I told you so
But 2 weeks ago I told you so. I cautioned that Hive was just one dump away from bear market territory. And yesterday we got the seemingly impossible: HIVE makes a new lower low in a so called "bull market"! Call it intuition or over half a decade of TA, but it became increasingly clear to me that Hive had not finished its bear. In my last post I gave you this chart which is currently completely on spot.
@edicted rightly pointed out that there was a support line missing in this chart:
But it has been completely demolished as can be seen in the chart below.
So what now?
Time to panic? Nope, we just ride it out like always. You probably saw in the chart what I am expecting to happen, so let's quickly dive into that. Why do I have the bottom at around 15 cents?
It's all got to do with the wick from 2021 which took price back down to 16 cents. It was a brutal correction and over the years this has stood out to me in my TA. For me it makes sense that a bear only finishes once price goes under the correction from a "B" wave in an impulse wave (i.e. the bull market). But I think there is room from the candle close to that wick: price could bottom out anywhere from 15-22 cents (see black lines).
The good news
I think there is a very high probability for Hive to finally enter into the bull mode once we finish this real bear market correction. It essentially suggests that Hive has a different cycle mode than most coins: Hive falls for 3 years (yikes), and then there is one year of crazy green.
If we take the movement from last time (up from 9 cents to $3.4) we could end up with a movement taking us from around 15 cents to around $4-5.
Sounds crazy? Well if someone would have said Hive would fall back to the teens when we were at above $3 that would have sounded crazy too... We have one more chance and it should start in fall of this year. Fingers crossed.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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Hive price is heavily impacted by Upbit ... months ago we started to see the balance of HIVE on Upbit going down, and coins move to Binance ... meaning HIVE is being dumped on Upbit and arbs are moving coins to Binance .... Upbit had 140M in HIVE, now is 118M, Binance had 26M now is 40M.
Honestly I hope this process continues and their is less HIVE on Upbit, since that many coins are a weak point and treat to the chain itself... hope we get even down to 50M HIVE on Upbit... users who wants to accumulate let them have their chance :)
Nice to hear that Upbit is unloading that was becoming such a heinous systemic threat.
Probably by this time HIVE will be around $0.10
Great entry price :)
I must admit that's far too close to HBD haircut territory for my taste !
It's not though because the haircut will move down with the price.
There's a 1000% chance that HBD will be converted to Hive during that time.
Also being close to the haircut is not a big deal at the bottom of the market.
Yup, people think that is crazy but it’s actually likely at this point. I said .22 was my target for June when I did my end of May vlog here, looks like I was not bearish enough even though everyone commented I had to be wrong. .18 cents is a certainty. .10 possible
It is good to drain Upbit. Thanks for the info.
That’s not the main reason. The main reason is a lot of hive accounts powering down and selling plus no new user growth
Thanks for the info, who will pay all the HBD interest and DAO now then?
Bottom line is power downs and selling is way bigger than power ups and buying.
More seller then buyers :)
Bottom line is that yes, and this usualy comes to around 1.5M HIVE per month, there are now millions of HIVE dumped in a day, that is from the liquid supply on Upbit and whoever is holding those coins there, that have been accumulating for years
I fear the worst for Hive at this stage. It looks like a dying project. We may be left holding the bags. Rats leaving the sinking ship, why would holders be selling at this poor price?
Its mostly whoever was holding Hive on Upbit ... there is like 120M HIVE on Upbit ...
that's actually great to hear; although there is still quite bit left. I hope we get at least a better distribution from this
Shockingly similar to last cycle
Even without a hostile takeover in play.
Not out of the woods till EOY it seems.
I bought 7000 Hive and powered it up today.
Firmly in my revenge trading range now.
All in at 200-250 sats.
I would buy more, but I am out of cash.. should be a good trade
My plan was to wait until September anyway so I'm going to need to pace myself.
now let's hope for the reversal I got in my chart as well
You got any more TA?
Yes looks like our beartrap is coming.
Probably will happen again, some alts made bottom 6 months before the rest, they will finish 6 months before I belive AI and SOL will be done among the first. I will be looking forward to that $4-5 in 2025 then :))
HIVE is not alone in this pullback into bear territory unfortunately. Many of the older projects from 2017, 2021 are in the same boat... an example being Cosmos chain ($ATOM) and Zilliqa, both of which I have been staking for eyonks.
Most are still up past 12 months. Hive is not in the majority. We can look at 20 random crypto’s off the top 250 and 18 or 17 would be up past 12 months while 3 or so are down. We are being affected abnormally compared to trend, I don’t think admitting this should be ignored.
Yes perhaps manipulation by the whales. It looks very bad. Like a rug pull.
I didn't imagine to see Hive in the teens again, but we will soon be there 😔
Bring on the capitulation. 😋
I didn't expect it so soon tbh. This needle will be next to move...
🤔 If HBD goes of peg, I could just buy with fiat and make 2x when it pegs back, will that work..
Hopefully we don't find out.
yea but if it would be a nice flip :)
I pray things gets better, I believe so much in Hive and I know for a fact that it will thrive.
Thanks for the reminder about money.😊
Was obvious when we broke .30 .20 was incoming with no support at the past .25 cent area. Not just the charts but the selling and power downs out weight the opposite by a lot. I’m glad I posted my prediction on my daily vlogs here as people were calling me crazy two weeks ago when I said .22 was my June target. All that said hive and its future shouldn’t be in question. I’m just saying we are going much lower and likely to .10 cents - .15 cents
Does this affect any function of hive? No! Could it lead to some people leaving? I guess as this isn’t the s falling in a crypto bear market, crypto is in a bull market and we are in bear, this is a first so I’m sure we could see some people bail but I don’t believe this effects much on the long term function. Just have to admit we aren’t growing and it’s a part of this problem unfortunately.
Great TA bud though the price is brutal. I've given up hope in Hive.
I remain optimistic in the long term with HIVE, however, I consider that, for HIVE to enter the Bull Market again, there should be some type of "catalyst" that I do not distinguish today...The developers seem to have disappeared from this blockchain...unfortunately.
I like the area where you said no need to panic. Sure, we've been in this before and I think this is the best time buy more coins and keep.
@tipu curate
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