Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Markets have been underperforming
It's clear that Alts haven't been in a great spot this cycle. So far they have been lagging behind past cycle's performance. The reasons for this are manifold and we'll have to see what will happen in the supposedly "bull market" of 2025. It definitely seems unwise to call it off early as Alts have always been strong in the last year of the 4 year cycle. The trend is your friend as the saying goes...
Hive's deviation from "the chart"
Until last month everything looked perfect. Hive was following "the chart" that had predicted pretty much all of Hive's movement since June of 2024. It's clear now that Hive is not quite following this outline to the letter anymore (not that this should be surprising). In my last post we stood here:
It seemed as Hive was gearing up for the final push to around $1.4. Although a retest of the "red line" seemed reasonable. What we got, however, was not a retest but a break down to under 30 cents.
So the question is: was the peak at around 70 cents already the "local top"? If so, it could mean that the peak for 2025 could also be lower than the $5 target. Currently there seems to be good support from the thin blue line which held until June of 2024. Price has now reclaimed this support which should be a stepping stone for higher highs. A confirmation of 36+ cents for the weekly close would also solidify support from the red line which is necessary for pushing higher. The last time, in 2021, when price almost did a 10x price crashed back down to 16 cents. We haven't seen such volatility in the latest run up that started in November.
In other words, I am favoring the scenario in which ~70 cents hasn't been the top yet and price could reach ~$1.4 in the coming weeks. I will modify the chart slightly to incorporate these latest developments:
The movement is essentially the same, but with a stronger intermediate correction and a higher top. It's going to be clear very soon if this is "hopium" as I would expect price to rally until March/April. I don't really see an alternative (unless perhaps the magnitude of this movement) since going under 30 cents would be extremely bearish for a "bull year".
Conclusion
Hive is still in a pretty good spot at the moment and has outperformed many other alts in the last few months. The next days will be telling if Hive can actually rally as outlined in the chart - if not, it's back to the drawing boards.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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If we not get soon this wow 1 $ ... I not hope we even get something good end of year also ... so I have to hold ready plan B 🥶🥶 we been to long low now .
Can you share a bit what is your plan B?