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SPS‘ Fall
It’s been some time since I analyzed SPS. The last time I covered it, things still seemed a bit brighter. To be frank, I never thought we would see SPS below 1 cents, I even didn’t think 2 cents was likely over a year ago. With SPS falling to half a cent back in August, everything seems to be on the table again. There is a real possibility of SPS actually ending up as a failed token Perhaps some are already saying that it is. However, Splinterlands itself is still alive and running and has even gathered DHF approval of its controversial proposal to fund SPL directly with HBD. I think it is worth a try, although I would count that already as a second chance to revive the game and its economy – there probably won’t be a third.
The drop in price was quite novel in June since it broke the support of previous lows which hadn’t happened on that scale until then.
The thinner blue trend line is where price should have found support. The only thing positive about that development is that the blue supporting trend line‘s downward slope is overall decreasing. In other words, the rate of decline is getting lower, which would make sense if the token’s „health“ is improving. Since the dao and the team have reduced immision of the token and we are now at around 55% of overall distribution, it seems that this is slowly being reflected in the chart.
And yet there is only around a year more of steam in the „bull run“ – obviously that should be taken with a grain of salt since market performance has been overall very unimpressive. But it still marks the end of the 4 year cycle, and currently I don’t see any reason why this cycle should be different.
The curve that wasn‘t
Last year I started to put in a curve that seemed to nicely reflect and project price development. You can see it here again in green:
While it did seem to work out quite nicely, that correlation stopped in June when price dropped down a cliff. It projects a target of around 10 cents and perhaps that still has some validity. In fact, if SPS were to reach that level we would actually get a new ATH for MC since so many more tokens are now in circulation than when we were at around $1.
Projection and Resistances
On the right you can see what SPS would have to do if it were to reach the $1, 50 cents and 10 cents targets. It’s a very very steep slope! At this point I think the best we can hope for is 10 cents.
There are also 2 major resistances marked in red. These are at around 1 and 2 cents for 2024/5.
Conclusion
I honestly think there is still a chance for SPS to at least reach 10 cents since the game does have a core player base and it is currently receiving DHF funding. Apparently the game will also receive some marketing pushs which could bring in some new players. The „flywheel“ has only worked for some months in late 2023 and will only become active again once DEC reaches it’s peg. Overall there is a lot of uncertainty about the game atm and it remains to be seen if the team, dao and the community can still make this a success.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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