When Hive pumped & dumped some days ago I made the case that Hive was on track to higher highs
But today is unexpected. Hive made a lower low after the pump and was briefly down 11% even before the whole crypto market dipped lower! This essentially means that the pump we saw was used to dump Hive rather than accumulate it (at least in the broader sense of the market participants). Not so good news overall, but perhaps it was just somebody trying to get out of Hive (was it you Justin?). In the past, pumps often retraced often almost to the start of the pump but it is hard to find a case like today when we actually went significantly lower...
I was arguing that Hive would stay above ~48 cents as going lower would invalidate the step ladder of recent months where we always saw a higher high after a significant pump. But today Hive fell as low as 46 cents which means it even retested the macro support.
This macro support is, however, different for every exchange where it is traded. On the HIVE/USD pair (calculated by Trading View) it is lower than on the HIVE/USDT pair. For the HIVE/KRW pair on Upbit it is between that. The reason is that the support line is dependent on the crash of June 2021 when Hive went to about 16 cents. But this low is different for every pair and in turn the support line also varies.
If we look at the HIVE/KRW pair which has the largest volume we can see the support where price currently is sitting on. We can see that price went below that in June of 2022, but only for the daily chart. The support held nicely on the weekly chart. In fact, if we look at the weekly chart there is still a bit room left
In the last post I pointed to two scenarios after the pump of which the first one seems to have been confirmed now. This would see a rejection on the daily trend line and see a retest of the macro support. Price is doing that exactly now, although the "fierceness" of which it is doing that is, again, surprising.
In general it seems to me that the trend lines are pointing to two major wedges which are running out of space. The orange one is from the previous highs while the blue one (overlapping) covers the horizontal resistances. Note that both of the wedges were often broken to the upside, but failed to do so on the weekly chart (for the orange horizontal line this would be starting from May 2022). Generally speaking, price breaks out to the top or bottom before it gets stuck to the very end.
My best guess and hope is that this price correction will merely stand out as an isolated wick on the weekly scale. Price needs to hold at this macro support (a close above the trend line on the weekly chart), otherwise there is no telling where it could bottom out... Well probably between 20-30 cents, but that is not where we want to be going.
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I was honestly surprised to see HIVE taking a dump in this current market condition. That's because I was expecting it to hold the position of around 48 cents. But either way, I was able to grab some HIVE, in the price range of around 46 cents.
While HIVE coming down might be a surprise for now. But getting some cheap HIVE is always the best.
Btw, if Hive gets to 20-30 cents it would really harm some goals to achieve but to a point thinking long term I am expecting it to be taken as an opportunity. I am slowly getting out of stables and by seeing today's sudden dump it's probably time to get some stables just in case.
Maybe get some HBD
Indeed, I wish I had some fiat left!
Yes, we certainly don't want to head to 20cents.
Exchanges have been down for two days or more because of the upgrade. How could the dump be possible?
Anyway, I think this crypto dump might get tricky. A bigger dump or a very big pump is coming.
I think 2023 will be green!
I think only deposits and withdrawals are down. Trades should be still possible. 2023 should be the turnaround:)
Trueeeeee! Forgot :)
2023 flat as fook. The accumulation zone for smart money, but it wont be at these prices, much lower is just a long slow bleed out to a buy zone that is just back the truck up, problem is most people will be skint as fook. Not willing to borrow money at high interest or gamble with crypto that will have burnt so many people. So many shit coins also means so many failed investments, and so thats just that. It will be 2025 my guess. Only strong people survive ie people already rich enough not to care too much about needing to make money.
Clearly we don't want to see hive at 30 or 20cents... Its often times difficult to know the genuine reasons behind these pumps, the best things we do is read chats and move on
Definitely, especially when one is thinking long term. I would have bought some more Hive if I had some cash
As much as I would hate seeing $0.25 Hive I'd be buying plenty more Hive at that price range.
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yep, it's sale levels basically (although I think currently it's a good entry point as well)
Sad about the lower low, as you say loose trend line -> 30 cents seems likely, hopefully a W bottom or some sort..
Thanks for the information and prediction.
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