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I doubt that prices will rise from there.

Ah see that's were the difference lies.
I would say if prices go that low they are guaranteed to go back up.
That's exactly where I want prices to be before I go long.

of course they will rise again, but it all depends on the scale one is looking at. I think there could be 1-1.5 years of downward movement until the halving

Again, I would say the halving is totally irrelevant at this point.
90% of the tokens that will ever exist have already been minted.
Cutting inflation in half again is no longer significant.

good point