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🧵 2. 🤔 Comparisons to past wars provide insight: Russo-Japanese lasted 1 year, Crimean War 2.5 years.

🧵 3. ⏳ If Crimean War is a template, the current conflict may end in August 2024.

🧵 4. 💥 Major wars tend to last longer; odds suggest end within a year, with near certainty by September 2025.