Beginning with Genesis, the subpar win rates you witnessed in the Welcome and Core sets begin to take noticeable steps towards seeming less pathetic. There are potent cards available to Deception players, but they tend to be quite costly compared to other domains that have more strength in their lower rarities. Even though Genesis features several highly popular common/rare cards, the lower average strength across cards means they carry quite the price tag.
Now that I've established Deception is more than just the crappy win rates in their F2P sets, @jungleboy1 and I present you the December 2021 Deception breakdown for the Genesis set!
DECEPTION - Genesis Set
A Real Man
I understand the intent, but the inability to attack makes Pinocchio, here, function like a delayed draw spell that relies on your opponent's cooperation. The ability to Hide a friendly creature is certainly appealing, but Deception has so much access to Hidden that it seems unnecessary.
This opinion is supported by the unpopular play rates and poor win rates at all levels, but the current price is an abnormality I wasn't expecting. The lack of effectiveness in influencing the numbers in a positive way leads me to believe this price is moderately overvalued compared to other similarly performing commons.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 49.2%
- Games Played — 1,598
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.6%
- Win Rate — 42.9%
- Games Played — 478
Price — $4.14
Ambush
First, RNG bouncing is most efficient on a sparse board, something you're most likely to see at
the beginning and end of games. In the early-game, this spell can combo with Gleeful Pillager or
Vault Vagabond to knock a threat off the board and then copy it for later use. There are quite a few 2/3-cost creatures Deception would love to borrow from other domains. Come late-game, being able to stall your opponent when you're both racing to slap down creatures on the board can decide matches.
Second, this provides instant card advantage. How? You're denying your opponent their next draw by replacing it with something they've already cast. When paired with the above combo, Ambush provides a 2-card lead on your opponent by turn 3 in a best-case scenario. So, why don't the numbers agree? My best guess is most players would rather drop a 3-cost creature like Jinxblade Duelist or Ludia's Dedicant.
Personally, I think there's value, here, that's being overlooked, as so few players are running Ambush that the win rates can't be taken at face value. If you're running a Deception deck built on Card Advantage through imitation, consider giving this spell a go. I'd even go so far as to suggest the current price is slightly undervalued.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 42.4%
- Games Played — 151
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 37.5%
- Games Played — 72
Price — $2.49
Ancient Curse
Mana Bind is a 3-cost card that drains 1 mana at the start of your opponent's turn. This curse guarantees your opponent must spend 4 mana in one turn to drop this card, otherwise they'll have one less mana for the rest of the game (barring self-discard effects). Unfortunately, the win rates are miserable at higher levels of play, and its popularity leaves much to be desired.
That aside, I can think of two use-cases where including this in your decklist could make sense:
- You're playing Aggro Deception and this gives you a spell to stall your opponent when they're about to reach a known mana cost for important card plays (i.e. board wipe).
- You're playing Control Deception and you need a useful 3-cost card to play inbetween your removal and late-game deploys that brings you closer to your strongest turns.
Either way, this spell is niche in how it can be used, so make sure you have a plan when running it. With that in mind, the current price is probably fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 46.4%
- Games Played — 1,106
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 39%
- Games Played — 259
Price — $1.33
Apate Conspirator
All you need to envision is the following: It's turn one, and your opponent plays Wild Boar. . . then you play Apate Conspirator. What. A. Waste.
This is simply a bad card that is trapped behind the Genesis lockdown. The poor play/win rates are entirely deserved, and the current price as the cheapest Genesis rare is fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 35.5%
- Games Played — 141
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 15.4%
- Games Played — 26
Price — $1.52
Avatar of Deception
The raw stats on this bad boy combined with Hidden and a useful Roar ability is what makes this Avatar a top performer at all levels of play. Sleep doesn't fall off a Creature until the end of the controlling player's turn, so the Roar acts as a form of denial that can help you take control of the board in the early-game.
If not for the highest price tag of the set, I'd imagine the play rates would be considerably higher. I have a hard time agreeing that any card is worth hundreds of dollars, but this is a time where its performance makes it hard to argue with the current price.
All
- Play Rate — 0.8%
- Win Rate — 59.1%
- Games Played — 8,959
Mythic
- Play Rate — 7.3%
- Win Rate — 60%
- Games Played — 6,252
Price — $329.65
Charm
This has the combined effects of Umber Arrow and Cutthroat Insight for only one extra mana and with no targeting restrictions. It's unlikely you'll play this very often, but the win rates at all levels suggest that the inclusion of one copy can produce results in games that make it to late-game.
The current price isn't terrible for a Genesis rare, as the high cost to cast likely keeps it at reasonable levels. I'd argue it is ever so slightly overvalued simply because your likelihood of using it is low.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 54.2%
- Games Played — 4,171
Mythic
- Play Rate — 2.2%
- Win Rate — 53.8%
- Games Played — 1,901
Price — $6.68
Deception, Unshrouded
Larceny is a 2-cost God Power that summons a 1/1 Rogue Skulker (no abilities) and copies any card from your opponent's Domain at random. If you're running Thievery, this spell acts as a direct upgrade to it but with less consistent results.
While the high cost inherent to Genesis legendaries limits play rates, win rates at all levels suggest dropping AoE Sleep as you enter late-game can be effective when paired with a God Power upgrade. It probably helps that you can endlessly pump out creatures afterwards, something Deception doesn't normally have access to.
All
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 55.8%
- Games Played — 3,784
Mythic
- Play Rate — 3%
- Win Rate — 55.9%
- Games Played — 2,597
Price — $165.06
False Peace
There are two uses for this feigned peace: After you've attacked to avoid any negative side-effects, or before attacking if you plan on killing your opponent's Creatures. Best case is to cast after clearing your opponent's side of the board through whatever means available.
Unfortunately, likely due to the faster pace of the current meta, play rates are low and win rates take a hit when moving into higher levels of play. For a rare, the price might actually be slightly undervalued when compared to other Genesis rares with weaker rates.
All
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 51.1%
- Games Played — 3,616
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.6%
- Win Rate — 44.7%
- Games Played — 555
Price — $3.12
Fill the Coffers
For an epic, your coffers will feel rather light after casting this dud. Landing at 6 mana, this
card needs to provide strong influence over the board to feel worthwhile in the mid-game.
Instead, it's the ultimate coin-flip. The fact that you burn your turn and gamble for cards
makes this a hard pass for everyone at pretty much all levels of play.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 46.5%
- Games Played — 202
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 0%
- Games Played — 0
Price — $13.28
Gleeful Pillager
In terms of raw value, you don't play the Pillager for any other reason than to pillage cards from your opponent. However, the amount of readily available removal that is well-suited to putting an end to your pillaging ways makes running this at higher levels of play less effective. Even something as basic as Vanguard Axewoman will net a free kill.
With that in mind, pillaging isn't as popular as it used to be, so the current price tag is likely fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 51.4%
- Games Played — 3,842
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.5%
- Win Rate — 34.7%
- Games Played — 395
Price — $1.05
Guerilla Sabotage
This is what removal looks like when it can't decide what to do. "Should I kill it? But what if I want to play with it later? Okay, let's just put it back in their hand!" Everything about this spell is inefficient because it combines the 2 damage of a 1-cost spell with the Pull effect of Trapdoor, a 2-cost spell, for 3 mana. Sounds good, right? Wrong! It slaps RNG on the damage portion and uses the Pull as a backup when the RNG understandably fails to do anything reliable.
Sabotage seems like a fitting name if we're talking about self-sabotage, and neither the play rates nor win rates disagree. It's surprising to see this included in Mythic decks given Hunting Trap renders this spell obsolete in most cases. The price tag seems low for a Genesis common, but I'd argue that in the current meta, it's actually overvalued for anything other than collecting.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 50.8%
- Games Played — 1,744
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 41.7%
- Games Played — 360
Price — $0.81
Hall of Mirrors
It's a shame that this is an epic because there's definitely value in gaining two Frontline Creatures for 1 mana. Win rates appear to suffer in Mythic, and this is likely contributing to its currently lack in popularity as much as the higher price tag is.
I suspect the popularity of Nature in the current meta is also undermining the value of Confused, but somehow these mirrors are seeing more play than any other epic. I have a hard time supporting the current price, as Identity Thief is nearly two-thirds the price with a much better performance.
All
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 50%
- Games Played — 3,487
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.7%
- Win Rate — 45.2%
- Games Played — 637
Price — $33.39
Heads or Tails
While much of Deception's "Aggro" theme is locked away behind expensive price tags, this coin-flip manages to remain affordable in the Genesis set. While there's a chance you'll hurt yourself, the greater emphasis should be placed on dealing 3-4 face damage for just 2 mana.
Play rates are middling, even for a common, but the win rates land in the top three for all commons (top ten overall!). The current price is fairly valued given both scarcity and performance. If Deception ever expands its inventory of cheap Aggro cards, expect this to enjoy a nice price bump.
All
- Play Rate — 0.5%
- Win Rate — 55.8%
- Games Played — 5,250
Mythic
- Play Rate — 3.1%
- Win Rate — 54.7%
- Games Played — 2,682
Price — $1.22
Hypnos Puzzle Box
With 4 anims, enchanted weapons, and runes each, there is a distinct possibility that for just 1 mana, you'll give your opponent an advantage they didn't previously have. Sure, you'll get to use what you receive first, but the amount of RNG involved in simply putting a creature to Sleep is risky.
Risk is something to be managed as you enter higher levels of play, and both play and win rates clearly indicate that average results are stored inside this box. The current price is somewhere in the middle for a rare, and I can see potential for future value if the Deception Sleep theme is ever expanded upon. As such, I consider this fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 47.5%
- Games Played — 2,064
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1%
- Win Rate — 49.4%
- Games Played — 882
Price — $4.00
Identity Thief
This Guild member peddles in card advantage, pure and simple. While it's unlikely you'll be able to cast the copied creature right away, this can be used to mirror your opponent's win condition back at them while gaining 4/4 fodder. The effectiveness of such is highly variable, as bouncing something with Roar may actually help your opponent by allowing them to benefit from it twice.
Play rates are pitiful at all levels of play, but a few players in Mythic might be including this thief with positive results. The important thing to remember is tempo is crucial when deploying high-cost creatures. If you aren't receiving near immediate results, there's likely something better you could have played, instead.
Identity Thief leaves room for counter-play that could ruin your plans, and that vulnerability likely explains the poor play rates and lower price than would be expected given the (probably distorted) win rates.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 53.7%
- Games Played — 721
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 56.6%
- Games Played — 198
Price — $24.03
Ignean Roulette
Much like Fill the Coffers, this is a combination of topdecking and multiple coin tosses. Either you play this hoping to draw what you need without sending other useful cards to the bottom of your deck, or you play this early on to (again) hopefully remove junk cards from your hand.
For just 1 mana, accurate play could eke out 1-2 better cards than you started with and the ability to play one of them immediately. This is particularly true if you're running multiple forms of card duplication where you'd rather have more of your own cards than random nonsense you pulled from your opponent's domain.
As such, I recommend viewing this, ironically, as a stabilizing spell that helps you overcome poor duplication RNG with. . . additional RNG. This playstyle isn't very popular in the current meta, which explains the poor play rates, middling win rates, and likely undervalued price.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 48.6%
- Games Played — 747
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 54.7%
- Games Played — 117
Price — $0.83
Kidnapper
When highly accessible cards like Onyx Nightblade or Light's Levy can cleanly remove a 6-cost creature from the board, you've got a problem. At 6 mana, you expect something with strong board
presence given what's usually hitting the board for 6 mana cost in the current meta. As I repeatedly blab on and on about, the immediacy of a card's effects is important.
The complete lack of board presence when playing Kidnapper is mirrored in the lack of popularity and poor win rate when moving to Mythic levels of play. I'd argue the current price is considerably overvalued, considering Labyrinth Minotaur (from the same set!) is a 4/7 with the option of directly attacking another creature when it is deployed. You know, something immediately useful :P
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 50.8%
- Games Played — 1,706
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 44.4%
- Games Played — 151
Price — $36.69
Labyrinth Minotaur
Speak of the Minotaur, there's a heckuva lot to like here, but a surprisingly poor response from Deception players has likely contributed to dismal win rates. The strange thing for me is his stats don't give up much for the two optional Roar abilities, one of which doubles as removal. If you're playing first and make it to 6 mana before your opponent, you can either knock something off the board or gain Hidden to limit your opponent's options for countering the deploy.
As has been the case with other cards, the prevalence of Nature decks in the meta dilutes the flexibility offered here. Giant Pangolin represents a situationally better version of this, and Lightning Strike has no issues getting around Hidden. I'd contend the current price is moderately undervalued when compared to Kidnapper (more than double!), something I'd never run over this.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 51.1%
- Games Played — 1,132
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 47.5%
- Games Played — 177
Price — $17.22
Laertes' Vendetta
With how popular Hunting Trip has grown to be, I feel like these offbeat removal spells have been largely overlooked. In this case, it's important to understand the "best case" scenario in order to properly gauge the value of this kind of removal.
First, Makeshift Shiv (the most winningest Deception card from the Core set) is tailor-made for this. With Godblitz and Flank, you're looking to play this spell as part of a larger combo. Either you already have the relic in play, or you've waited until 5 mana to drop both to follow up on some other creature's attack.
In this case, you'll trade a spell and (possibly) a weaker creature in a 2:2 trade that is favorable to you. I'd offer this up as a strong candidate for both Aggro and Control decks that want to either clear obstacles for face damage or clear the board in order to stall. These play/win rates are undeserved, and I'd gladly make a case for this being worth ~$1.00 given the price range for Genesis commons.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 49.1%
- Games Played — 513
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 48.6%
- Games Played — 0
Price — $0.66
Lightfoot Informant
Occupying the same space as Gleeful Pillager, the addition of Hidden and a guaranteed spell through Roar makes this informant strictly better in the general sense. Yes, Gleeful Pillager can potentially net you multiple cards, but the lack of protective abilities like Hidden severely dampen all hopes of a life filled with wanton pillaging.
The guarantees built into this creature are a large part of why play rates and win rates are significant. This all builds up to the second highest price tag among commons which appears to be fairly valued in the current meta.
All
- Play Rate — 1%
- Win Rate — 56.8%
- Games Played — 11,514
Mythic
- Play Rate — 6.9%
- Win Rate — 55.3%
- Games Played — 5,979
Price — $8.13
Lord of Whispers
As the older brother to Vault Vagabond, both the extra Strength and Health pushes him just out of reach of removal staples like Blight Bomb and Onyx Nightblade. He's still vulnerable to Nature's RNG removal, but that's a different bag of jaguars altogether.
Oddly enough, the win rates are barely better than Vault Vagabond which suggests the delay before being able to duplicate cards might be vulnerable to the faster meta at higher levels of play. Play rates also suffer from to a legendary price that lands at the midpoint for Genesis legendaries.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 52.2%
- Games Played — 2,151
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.7%
- Win Rate — 45.6%
- Games Played — 645
Price — $144.66
Mana Thief
Being the only other card (besides Fill the Coffers) with ZERO games played in Mythic, let's breakdown what's gone so wrong that this thief has been seen in less than one hundred games across all levels of play.
First, you're paying 5 mana to swing 1 mana from your opponent to yourself. Cool! Except. . . it's immediately reversed when this 3/1 dies. You know, something any source of damage is capable of achieving. Without hidden, this creature is a cheap parlor trick that wastes a turn at an important time in most matches.
Second, Ancient Curse from the same set is only 3 mana and achieves the same thing with guaranteed results. You spend 3, your opponent loses 1 mana on their turn, and they'll continue to do so until they pay 3 to "end" the curse.
The current price is massively overvalued from the perspective of playability, as there's not much reason to buy this beyond completing your Genesis collection.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 43%
- Games Played — 93
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 0%
- Games Played — 0
Price — $1.55
Master of Surprises
For a legendary, this one really misses the boat with most players. My best guess is RNG for the sake of RNG is hard to plan around.
The initial effect has value in facilitating surprise power turns should you stack your deck with 1/N creatures that are suddenly lethal. This contradicts the general trend for Deception creatures, however, as many early deploys feature a higher Strength than Health.
After the initial deploy, the rest of the match is pure chaos until this jerk is ejected from the game. This seems like the simplest reason for why he remains unpopular and largely forgettable in Mythic. It's easy to understand why he's stuck with the lowest price among legendaries.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 51%
- Games Played — 210
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 46.7%
- Games Played — 30
Price — $93.01
Me Two Three
I can see the intention for this mechanic given creatures like Made Mark, as you're diluting your opponent's strategy with cards that delay important draws. The problem is it's not worth adding "bad" cards to your own deck to make better use of this spell.
In a fast-paced meta, you're better off running useful cards that are independently strong with the potential for added synergy, something the win rates clearly support. I can't explain why the price is so high, but I'd readily argue it is significantly overpriced until more cards come along that are useful for you but harmful for your opponent.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 47.1%
- Games Played — 1,233
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 47.3%
- Games Played — 376
Price — $3.52
Merchant Prince
If you're running Thievery and/or card duplication, this royalty is an interesting pick for making the extra cards easier to capitalize on. Unfortunately, the standard for 4-cost creatures is 4/4 or better, and these stats are identical to a 2-cost Skeleton Heavy.
Further, card duplication has a hard time getting off the ground in the early game at higher levels of play. This only further cements the issue by providing another weak creature that relies on other weak creatures to put off-domain cards in your hand. Play/win rates are mediocre, and the current price is fairly valued among rares.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 47.1%
- Games Played — 1,178
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 47.3%
- Games Played — 319
Price — $3.52
Mimicus
As the winningest Genesis card for Deception at higher levels of play, there's a lot to like here!
First, you have constantly updated information about at least one creatures in your opponent's hand. That information is immediately useless if your opponent plays said creature, but you can get early warnings of trap plays if you gain a copy of something your opponent doesn't immediately play but clearly wants to after baiting you.
The added flexibility of being able to respond to your opponent with their own cards isn't something to scoff at, as play rates are high for a legendary and boast excellent win rates. I'll never really support price tags in the hundreds, but the metrics clearly indicate a valuable buy.
All
- Play Rate — 0.5%
- Win Rate — 56.7%
- Games Played — 5,921
Mythic
- Play Rate — 3.5%
- Win Rate — 60.2%
- Games Played — 2,977
Price — $255.67
Mirror, Mirror
Unlike Me Two Three, you're playing with fire, here, due to an extra layer of RNG you can't control. Whatever you draw, your opponent gains double down the road.
The non-existent play rates suggest that someone has included this in a deck that might not actually be using it in any meaningful way. This implies an inflated win rate, especially given that the current price is so low.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 42.9%
- Games Played — 133
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 54.3%
- Games Played — 46
Price — $0.70
Mugging
Removal is sparse for Deception, so anything that provides a cheap source of damage is going to have value above the norm. In this case, there's the added upside of summoning and killing off 1/1's (hello Enraged Ally) which has limited opportunities for synergy. The downside is any amount of Armor negates this spell entirely.
Used thoughtfully, the win rates indicate great potential that is supported by popular demand and the second highest price tag among rares. I think it's slightly overvalued but something worth tracking for a nice discount opportunity.
All
- Play Rate — 1.4%
- Win Rate — 54.9%
- Games Played — 15,605
Mythic
- Play Rate — 8.7%
- Win Rate — 54.8%
- Games Played — 7,490
Price — $15.95
Needle-Fang Chameleon
For the neutral line of Burn creatures, their lack of Hidden gives the opponent an opportunity to deal with them before they can apply Burn. In this case, you get a 2/2 worth playing when going first (unlike Vanguard Axewoman) that will eventually kill what it attacks through Burn.
While not the most popular Genesis card, win rates are at least respectable across all levels of play. I can't argue with the current price given the various uses that immediately come to mind relative to other less effective rares.
All
- Play Rate — 0.6%
- Win Rate — 54.1%
- Games Played — 7,212
Mythic
- Play Rate — 2.5%
- Win Rate — 50.9%
- Games Played — 2,130
Price — $6.60
Nightmare
The cheap damage is nice and practical for newer players competing at standard levels of play. There are enough sources of Sleep that you can realistically land the bonus damage of this spell enough to be worth using for a while.
As soon as you start pushing higher levels of play, however, the win rate quickly drops off. This suggests to me this is a budget card you run until something better like Piercing Bolt (a direct counter to Armor in the meta) becomes available to you.
The current price is significantly overvalued given the subpar performance relative to many other cheaper Genesis commons.
All
- Play Rate — 0.8%
- Win Rate — 52.5%
- Games Played — 9,493
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.6%
- Win Rate — 43.3%
- Games Played — 1,418
Price — $2.40
Overclock
I honestly can't tell you why overclocking your creatures is statistically garbage in Mythic as indicated by these metrics. I get that Sleep is a problem if you don't kill off the boosted creature, but that feels like the entire point of adding Twin Strike: swing for face damage before ram into something for a 1:1 trade. If the creature is bulky enough, ram into two creatures for a 1:2 trade and no Sleep to worry about.
I feel strongly that the poor win rate is undeserved, but I also know there are better options like Dark Knives if you're going for raw damage output. The current price implies an interest in the card that doesn't match the win rate, but I'd still say it's fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 46.2%
- Games Played — 2,337
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 36.5%
- Games Played — 299
Price — $0.95
Piclpocket
The uses for this are extremely limited given that the entire point of build a deck is planning how you'll win in advance. For example, if your opponent just board wiped you, this spell won't help unless you now need to do the same. Unfortunately, you'll need two turns to do it.
I can understand running one as filler if you have a legendary throwing off your even pairs, but this isn't something I expect to win you many games. It feels like filler for when you're holding back or lack something better to play. Something better you might have drawn if this weren't in your deck.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 48%
- Games Played — 2,014
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 30.5%
- Games Played — 131
Price — $0.86
Shade Walker
This is the kind of creature that helps Deception stay relevant in an Aggro-heavy meta. With multiple ways of re-applying Hidden after the first attack, you can apply serious pressure if you've already built up a chain of face-swinging Hidden creatures.
Boasting the highest price for a rare and well above average rates, it's fairly clear that players want it in their decks and are willing to pay the current price to make it so.
All
- Play Rate — 2.2%
- Win Rate — 55.5%
- Games Played — 24,859
Mythic
- Play Rate — 13.4%
- Win Rate — 54.7%
- Games Played — 11,502
Price — $37.06
Shady Merchant
A perfectly average card, but one that adds a slight variation to the normal card duplication common to early-game Deception creatures. Enchanted Weapons are actually somewhat useful, as they all have Blitz and a secondary ability Deception can make use of.
The downside is Hidden only lasts one turn, so you'll need to take steps to protect your assets if you want a free relic each turn. The current price might be slightly overvalued, but I suspect some are still willing to pay it.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 50.9%
- Games Played — 4,497
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.1%
- Win Rate — 48.6%
- Games Played — 939
Price — $1.24
Sleep Dart
Although the kill is delayed, it's almost certainly assured, sooner or later. The reason players are so willing to wait out the process is the initial Sleep can be extended with effects like Gorgon Gargoyle or Satyr Hypnotist. In other words, even if you take some face damage, your target will die eventually.
That kind of guarantee makes this a highly efficient source of removal with a flexibility that has made it the most popular card in the set. While win rates aren't absolutely spectacular, Sleep Dart is growing into a staple card at higher levels of play. This makes the current price fairly valued if only due to demand.
All
- Play Rate — 3.5%
- Win Rate — 54.6%
- Games Played — 39,401
Mythic
- Play Rate — 22.1%
- Win Rate — 53.6%
- Games Played — 18,972
Price — $8.46
Smoke Bomb
The preapplied Burn 1 puts a hard cap on how many times you can spread Hidden, but imagine this alongside Shade Walker. Until your opponent figures out how to indirectly kill them, you'd have untargetable beefcakes swinging for the fences.
Again, likely due to Nature screwin' up the meta with their RNG removal (Canopy Barrage), the effectiveness of Hidden seems to fall apart at higher levels of play. In order to address Nature removal, you'll often spread wide making the RNG targeting of the Hidden unreliable. This leads me to believe the current price is fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 51.5%
- Games Played — 2,970
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.6%
- Win Rate — 38.6%
- Games Played — 542
Price — $1.02
Spellbound
As intimidating as Death's frequent AoE Sleep sources can be, sometimes you don't need more than a couple creatures to conk out in order to get the job done. The minimal cost of 1 mana leaves plenty of room for playing a card normally in addition to locking down the board.
Both play and win rates support the notion that selective Sleep can be just as effective at all levels of play, and the currently elevated price reflects that. I'd argue it's slightly overvalued knowing the Core Set Refresh is on the horizon, though.
All
- Play Rate — 1.9%
- Win Rate — 53.4%
- Games Played — 21,533
Mythic
- Play Rate — 10%
- Win Rate — 53.9%
- Games Played — 8,575
Price — $4.40
Spellstealer
While the guaranteed spell is nice, for 5 mana you want something that'll have an impact on the board. Guild Enforcer is one such 5-cost creature that has earned quite the reputation, but even Ogre Archer is more appealing with a built in spell-like 3 damage that doesn't require RNG and additional mana to use.
It's not surprising to see negligible play rates and what I'd argue are meaningless win rates.I'd suggest this spell thief somehow found its way into one player's deck where it couldn't resist the urge to steal credit for some wins, too. The current price is fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 50.4%
- Games Played — 371
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 50%
- Games Played — 6
Price — $0.66
The Mastermind
Mind Probe is a 2-cost spell that deals 1 damage per 2 cards in your opponent's hand at the end of their turn. Once you slip the first one into their hand, you're guaranteed to gain some value from it, but the fragility of this brainiac is laughable. Nearly every form of removal puts an end to the mind games.
It's interesting to see middling play rates for such a marginal legendary, but the win rates are quite clear: There's nothing special going on here. Even with the second lowest price among legendaries, it's probably still overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 51%
- Games Played — 2,297
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.1%
- Win Rate — 50%
- Games Played — 984
Price — $96.43
Three's a Crowd
Even after combining 2 Trap Door spells and a 3/2 Creature into a neat bundle, this spell still manages to remain efficient. The question is, how often will this benefit you more than something like a Rapture Dance or even Aether Vanguard (Roar: 2 x 2 damage)?
If it weren't for the hefty price tag, I doubt many players would mind running this for removal filler. Unfortunately, the numbers we do have suggest the spell is average at best and commands a premium most are unwilling to pay.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 49.7%
- Games Played — 509
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 50.5%
- Games Played — 184
Price — $15.21
Trapdoor Assassin
For how aggressive these stats are, it's surprising a Hidden 4/1 capable of guaranteeing face damage if it survives a turn doesn't see more play. Sure, there's a bit of a struggle transitioning to Mythic, but I don't see why that earns this assassin the lowest price of the set. This feels undervalued to me, and the current affordability makes it one many should consider giving a try.
All
- Play Rate — 0.5%
- Win Rate — 52.2%
- Games Played — 5,670
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.1%
- Win Rate — 44.4%
- Games Played — 969
Price — $0.45
Underhand Thug
The goal for this ability is clearly to disrupt your opponent's hand. The problem is you've got an incredibly squishy 1/2 asking you to pay 3 mana for the privilege of a miserable death.
There are significantly better alternatives available, even within the same set, so I firmly believe the current price is overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 46.5%
- Games Played — 469
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 43.8%
- Games Played — 105
Price — $0.89
RANKINGS by Category
All
Play Rate
| 1st | Sleep Dart | 54.6% | 1.71 Copies in Deck | 39,401 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Shade Walker | 55.5% | 1.57 Copies in Deck | 24,859 total matches |
| 3rd | Spellbound | 53.4% | 1.6 Copies in Deck | 21,533 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 40th | Apate Conspirator | 0% | 1.32 Copies in Deck | 141 total matches |
| 41st | Mirror, Mirror | 0% | 1.38 Copies in Deck | 131 total matches |
| 42nd | Mana Thief | 0% | 1.03 Copies in Deck | 93 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Avatar of Deception | 59.1% | Unique | 8,959 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Lightfoot Informant | 56.8% | 1.5 Copies in Deck | 11,514 total matches |
| 3rd | Mimicus | 56.7% | Unique | 5,921 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 40th | Mirror, Mirror | 42.9% | 1.38 Copies in Deck | 133 total matches |
| 41st | Ambush | 42.4% | 1.38 Copies in Deck | 151 total matches |
| 42nd | Apate Conspirator | 35.5% | 1.32 Copies in Deck | 141 total matches |
Price
| 1st | Avatar of Deception | $329.65 | Legendary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Mimicus | $255.67 | Legendary |
| 3rd | Deception, Unshrouded | $165.06 | Legendary |
| . . . | |||
| 40th | Spellstealer | $0.66 | Common |
| 41st | Laertes' Vendetta | $0.66 | Common |
| 42nd | Trapdoor Assassin | $0.45 | Common |
Mythic
Play Rate
| 1st | Sleep Dart | 53.6% | 1.71 Copies in Deck | 18,972 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Shade Walker | 54.7% | 1.57 Copies in Deck | 11,502 total matches |
| 3rd | Spellbound | 53.9% | 1.6 Copies in Deck | 8,575 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 40th | Laertes' Vendetta | 0% | 1.06 Copies in Deck | 0 total matches |
| 41st | Mana Thief | 0% | 1.03 Copies in Deck | 0 total matches |
| 42nd | Fill the Coffers | 0% | 1 Copy in Deck | 0 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Mimicus | 60.2% | Unique | 2,977 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Avatar of Deception | 60% | Unique | 6,252 total matches |
| 3rd | Identity Thief | 56.6% | 1.13 Copies in Deck | 198 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 40th | Apate Conspirator | 15.4% | 1.32 Copies in Deck | 26 total matches |
| 41st | Mana Thief | 0% | 1.03 Copies in Deck | 0 total matches |
| 42nd | Fill the Coffers | 0% | 1 Copy in Deck | 0 total matches |
Conclusion
In summary, Mimicus, Avatar of Deception and Lightfoot Informant are stomping the yard despite Sleep Dart, Shade Walker and Spellbound being top favorites. Mirror, Mirror is a surprising outcast among Deception players given its success at higher levels of play.
Laertes' Vendetta and Smoke Bomb are commons that might be getting overlooked despite their respectable board influence, and Labyrinth Minotaur is getting the short end of the stick when it comes to valuations despite a better performance record than other higher-priced epics.
Sources
Images
https://market.x.immutable.com/
What a Godly Report! Man on fire keep it burning!
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Wow, what a great card showdown! Too bad I don't play this elemental.
Nuts job once again. Always great to take a look at those cards and stats.
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Much appreciated!
The Genesis sets are always a doozy, but it feels good to look back on the numbers when it's all done. Really paints a clearer picture regarding where the playerbase is gravitating towards.
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I was curious when you were gonna drop this on us again. Glad to see it. I admittedly do not know the deception god that well. So seeing a break down like this is pretty helpful for me. Just so I can take a look at what people are running. I know I could look at GUdecks and find that out. But it being right here is a nice little neat package. You must be exhausted as I know you are writing so many different things. You really went head first into Hive. Congratulations you deserve it for all the handwork you are putting in.
Thanks for the support!
It's been a great undertaking, but we're back at it and angling to finish all the domains before the CSR hits! Fingers crossed we actually make it xP
Great breakdown, this is awesome!
Glad you enjoyed it!
The effort put into this meta report is just ridiculous! Awesome job @entrepidus and @jungleboy1 !!!
We aim to please! Thanks for taking the time to read it :D
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