As we begin, let's get the dismal win rates (on average) of Deception cards relative to other domains out of the way. The current meta is highly aggressive which puts Deception on its heels from the get-go. This frequently defensive posture suggests Deception needs to be efficient and asks more of its players than other domains with straightforward strategies. If you keep that in mind, I'd suggest the learning curve of Deception is suppressing win rates more than experienced players can prop them up at higher levels of play.
So, let's get to it! @jungleboy1 and I present you the December 2021 Deception breakdown for the Welcome and Core sets!
DECEPTION — Welcome Set
Bedeviled Shadow
If we lower our expectations for play/win rates in the Welcome set, this generic Hidden creature holds its own until players undoubtedly obtain better versions of this mechanic. There's not much to say other than it's just above average, across the board, for Welcome set cards.
All
- Play Rate — 36.6%
- Win Rate — 47.9%
- Games Played — 403,092
Mythic
- Play Rate — 11.8%
- Win Rate — 35.1%
- Games Played — 9,668
Glider Assailant
Much like the intro-to-Hidden creature above, this intro-to-Flank aerialist is popular in standard play until just about anything else comes along to replace it at higher levels of play. The stats aren't terrible for a 3/2, but Deception has numerous Hidden 3/1 creatures for 1 mana that push this creature body off the table in terms of strategic viability.
All
- Play Rate — 31.7%
- Win Rate — 47.5%
- Games Played — 349,462
Mythic
- Play Rate — 3.2%
- Win Rate — 23.9%
- Games Played — 2,623
Poisoned Dagger
While useful for its ability to guarantee the death of anything that isn't Protected/Warded, the cost pales in comparison to other options such as Hunting Trap (2-cost spell, Deal a Creature's Strength to itself) that usually get the job done for half the price. It's a decent budget source of removal in standard play, but it quickly drops off when moving to Mythic.
All
- Play Rate — 34.5%
- Win Rate — 47.1%
- Games Played — 380,751
Mythic
- Play Rate — 8.2%
- Win Rate — 32.8%
- Games Played — 6,708
Ransom
Statistically, this removal spell enjoys the best play/win rates at all levels of play among Welcome cards, but I suspect some are missing the subtle implications of increasing the cost of a card.
For example, holding a lowly 3-cost creature ransom will prove futile when it eventually returns to seek revenge, but ransoming a 6-cost creature that was played turn 5 using a mana gem ensures it won't be seen until your opponent has unlocked 8 mana some half a dozen turns later. This is useful, because the duplication mechanics you'll eventually obtain as a Deception player will have a widened window for copying the ransomed creature for your own use later in the game.
All
- Play Rate — 43.1%
- Win Rate — 48.8%
- Games Played — 475,187
Mythic
- Play Rate — 24.9%
- Win Rate — 40%
- Games Played — 20,402
Secrets Broker
The ability to draw cards while behind seems useful, but the win rate at higher levels of play makes it clear this broker is only dealing in expired secrets. She's a decent source of card draw for budget decks in standard play, but the sooner you can replace her the better. Deception players often aim for having more cards in hand which conflicts with her ability.
All
- Play Rate — 20.8%
- Win Rate — 46.8%
- Games Played — 228,818
Mythic
- Play Rate — 3.7%
- Win Rate — 28.5%
- Games Played — 3,035
Spiked Tea
Regardless of the extra Confusion mechanic, Hunting Trap (same effect, half the cost) is strictly better. You're unlikely to have access to the better version right away, so this exists only to provide budget removal in standard play before graduating to Mythic with better cards. The one exception is for those that wish to run both cards, as you might have extra space in your deck after assembling your chosen win condition(s).
All
- Play Rate — 45.1%
- Win Rate — 48.3%
- Games Played — 497,317
Mythic
- Play Rate — 14.1%
- Win Rate — 33.7%
- Games Played — 11,546
Stack the Deck
The theoretical value of this card is in forcing card draw on your opponent with a built-in delay. If you're lucky, you could delay the use of a 6/7 cost card by multiple turns thanks to the multi-turn unlocking aspect of 6+ mana. Unfortunately, there are many better options for deception that leave cheating by the wayside in higher levels of play.
That said, there are "mill" decks that are coming together to force your opponent to draw an excess of cards thus burning off anything they draw beyond their hand size. If you're able to force draws and control the board, a stacked deck could accelerate a milling strategy.
All
- Play Rate — 16.9%
- Win Rate — 44.4%
- Games Played — 186,013
Mythic
- Play Rate — 3%
- Win Rate — 24%
- Games Played — 2,463
Wiznapper
First, let's consider when you'd want to summon this tricksy wizard: When you need to clear the way for a winning attack. Beyond that, a double creature bounce lacks impact if your opponent can immediately return them to play. Yes, you're forcing them to re-spend the mana, but if you have 8 mana unlocked, they're unlikely to have any trouble redeploying. The win rates in mythic strongly reinforce my point, and there are other creatures that outright destroy/kill multiple targets on deploy for the same mana cost.
All
- Play Rate — 16.3%
- Win Rate — 45.7%
- Games Played — 179,486
Mythic
- Play Rate — 2%
- Win Rate — 19.3%
- Games Played — 1,649
RANKINGS by Category
All
Play Rate
| 1st | Spiked Tea | 45.1% | 1.42 Copies in Deck | 497,317 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Ransom | 43.1% | 1.44 Copies in Deck | 475,187 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 7th | Stack the Deck | 16.9% | 1.48 Copies in Deck | 186,013 total matches |
| 8th | Wiznapper | 16.3% | 1.41 Copies in Deck | 179,486 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Ransom | 48.8% | 1.44 Copies in Deck | 475,187 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Spiked Tea | 48.3% | 1.42 Copies in Deck | 497,317 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 7th | Wiznapper | 45.7% | 1.41 Copies in Deck | 179,486 total matches |
| 8th | Stack the Deck | 44.4% | 1.48 Copies in Deck | 186,013 total matches |
Mythic
Play Rate
| 1st | Ransom | 24.9% | 1.44 Copies in Deck | 20,402 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Spiked Tea | 14.1% | 1.42 Copies in Deck | 11,546 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 7th | Stack the Deck | 3% | 1.48 Copies in Deck | 2,463 total matches |
| 8th | Wiznapper | 2% | 1.41 Copies in Deck | 1,649 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Ransom | 40% | 1.44 Copies in Deck | 20,402 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Bedeviled Shadow | 35.1% | 1.51 Copies in Deck | 9,668 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 7th | Glider Assailant | 23.9% | 1.54 Copies in Deck | 2,623 total matches |
| 8th | Wiznapper | 19.3% | 1.41 Copies in Deck | 1,649 total matches |
Conclusion
In summary, most of the Deception Welcome cards are temporary placeholders that introduce you to the domain's common themes before you "graduate" to better versions. The exceptions are Spiked Tea and Ransom that can help pad out a deck, and Stack the Deck which might find a home in Mill decks should the theme gain popularity.
DECEPTION — Core Set
A Toast To Peace
Serving as a soft board-wipe, this hollow peace also has a hollow value in comparison to other forms of removal. Whereas normal board-wipe always has some value if it destroys at least one creature, this toast has highly conditional value dependent upon how many creatures you and your opponent have on the board. The fewer creatures your opponent has, the less useful mass bounce becomes.
This means the spell exists as an emergency reset rather than a planned source of removal that you eagerly await playing. Rapture Dance may not guarantee a 1:1+ trade on a narrow board, but its value shifts from extra damage on a couple creatures to potentially full board-wipes against many creatures. A board-wipe that doesn't slowly undo itself as your opponent redeploys their creatures. And, don't forget: You'll be stuck doing the same thing.
While play rates do increase going into Mythic levels of play, the win rates aren't robust enough to justify running more than a single copy for handling emergencies. The current price is probably fairly valued, but its lack of appeal (for me) has it teetering on the edge of being slightly overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 9%
- Win Rate — 48.6%
- Games Played — 98,424
Mythic
- Play Rate — 13.3%
- Win Rate — 46.3%
- Games Played — 10,885
Price — $3.28
Annoying Bureaucrat
In most board states, your goal is to knock opposing creatures off the board. Thus, whenever an effect relies on your opponent have creatures alive at the end of your turn, it's inherent value tends to be lower.
The Roar offers potential card advantage if your opponent has a card in their hand to discard. If you reach 6 mana, first, and force your opponent to discard something they were relying on to win—most domains have strong deploys at 5-6 mana that try to seize board control—that alone could heavily influence the game in your favor. Having Hidden means there's a solid chance you'll also get to swing for 6 damage on the following turn with flexibility in terms of face damage or trading something nasty off the board.
Unfortunately, win rates take a hit at higher levels of play which is likely fueling the drop-off in play rates in Mythic. I'd wager that while the combined effects of card advantage and Hidden can work, the need for Deception to be extremely efficient in order to survive the current meta is paramount. High-cost conditional cards need to be consistent in their ability to help end matches. With the lowest asking price among Core rares, I'd suggest the current price is slightly undervalued despite the lack of interest.
All
- Play Rate — 5.1%
- Win Rate — 47.9%
- Games Played — 56,077
Mythic
- Play Rate — 2.3%
- Win Rate — 40.8%
- Games Played — 1,919
Price — $0.85
Anti-Magic Expert
To better understand why this creature has more appeal than the bureaucrat despite its higher mana cost and inferior stats, take a closer look at the ability: Godblitz. This card's sole purpose is to "NoU!" uno reverse card an opponent's play after they drop something like Burnished Bull (10/10) or Helian Elite (10/12 Frontline) on the board. That also means your opponent needs to have creatures worth targeting for this costly expert to have value.
Although it isn't worth building a deck around, you could also use Dionysian Drunk as a late-game deploy to flip this creature's stats around for a sudden 10/3 the turn after using your opponent's creature given the extra one round of Sleep.
All
- Play Rate — 14.2%
- Win Rate — 49.5%
- Games Played — 155,957
Mythic
- Play Rate — 12.9%
- Win Rate — 43.6%
- Games Played — 10,522
Price — $0.42
Assassin's Aim
With decent play rates and middling win rates, this flexible spell has a lot to offer. Granting Hidden at EoT is so important to many Deception strategies that I'd argue this is an auto-include in Aggro decks that focus on pushing unblockable damage through as quickly as possible. The Hidden isn't limited to one turn, so there's also added utility in being able to protect support creatures until an opportunity to attack presents itself.
Given the flexibility of such steady aim, it's not surprising this touts one of the highest price tags among Core commons. The price feels fairly valued, but certainly "early" given that most Core cards across all domains tend to be somewhat undervalued.
All
- Play Rate — 31%
- Win Rate — 48.8%
- Games Played — 340,177
Mythic
- Play Rate — 33.6%
- Win Rate — 44.5%
- Games Played — 27,485
Price — $0.87
Cutthroat Insight
While not as popular as the previous card, this is the kind of control thematic for Deception. Know your opponent might be angling to setup a power play? Shut it down and put it in your back pocket. This form of control doubles as card advantage that can be effective even if your opponent doesn't have the makings of a massive turn. Simply reducing their hand to 0 puts them at the mercy of RNGesus while expanding your options.
Although only averagely popular, win rates shift from the bottom half in standard play to the third highest among Core cards when entering Mythic levels of play. This tells me that the current price is moderately undervalued, as improper use of the card might be deterring less experienced players from seeing its value.
All
- Play Rate — 15.5%
- Win Rate — 48.4%
- Games Played — 170,067
Mythic
- Play Rate — 21.6%
- Win Rate — 48%
- Games Played — 17,657
Price — $0.44
Dark Knives
While similar to Assassin's Aim, the lower cost and lack of Health reduction significantly widens your options for how you apply it. The intention is also to allow for either attacking around obstacles via Flank or turning weak fodder into supercharged removal. There's also the case for stacking this on top of Assassin's Aim given that you'll first gain Hidden, then Flank, for a truly scary beastie ready to smash someone's face.
Given a win rate nearly identical to Exorcise, the more than doubled price tag just doesn't make sense to me. Either this is massively overvalued, or Exorcise is a proportionally undervalued sleeper card that has gone overlooked.
All
- Play Rate — 42.2%
- Win Rate — 49.6%
- Games Played — 463,717
Mythic
- Play Rate — 52%
- Win Rate — 46.6%
- Games Played — 42,507
Price — $2.79
Darkdream Hex
Given the clear desire to fit into a Sleep deck, Deception unfortunately lacks reliable sources of Sleep that don't tie up most of your mana. If you need to use two cards to trigger the removal of one, you're actively giving your opponent card advantage. This is in stark contrast to Sleep Death decks that have the ability to AoE sleep repeatedly through Afterlife triggers and Void manipulation.
Thus, unless you have all the Sleep cards available in Deception, the win rates at Mythic levels of play leave little room for debate: This spell is a trap, and the current price as the cheapest Core card is fairly earned.
All
- Play Rate — 7.4%
- Win Rate — 45%
- Games Played — 81,240
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.7%
- Win Rate — 33.6%
- Games Played — 1,420
Price — $0.36
Dionysian Drunk
The ability to flip a creature's stats opens doors to unorthodox forms of removal such as toppling a 0/X wall designed to buy a Control player time in the early game. It can also make low-strength damage sponges easier to tackle or convert your own into a sudden Aggro beefcake.
Unfortunately, this flexibility doesn't appear to hold up under pressure, as play rates are meager across all levels of play and win rates topple when approaching Mythic. Personally, I suspect treating the drunk more like a spell with a creature attached is likely to yield better results which supports my opinion that the current price is only slightly overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 9.5%
- Win Rate — 48.8%
- Games Played — 104,500
Mythic
- Play Rate — 5.4%
- Win Rate — 36.7%
- Games Played — 4,378
Price — $3.85
Double Dealer
At first glance, gaining an immediate 4-card advantage sounds amazing. However, we've got a number of issues attached to this wonder spell that have inflated the mana cost above the 6-mana cutoff for reliable use. You're also wasting the effectiveness of the card if your opponent doesn't have two cards to toss.
Upon reaching 7 mana, most matches are looking for board-wipes, stat-monsters, or other game-ending plays. This is the card you play when you want to deny your opponent cards while also fishing for what you need to win. Chances are good that you'd be better off simply playing a 7-cost card, directly, as you're giving up tempo and allowing your opponent the opportunity to topdeck their win-condition before you.
Play/win rates quickly shift from mediocre to worse when approaching top levels of play, so it's safe to say that the average price tag is fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 3.8%
- Win Rate — 46.9%
- Games Played — 42,032
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.3%
- Win Rate — 35.1%
- Games Played — 1,097
Price — $0.56
Exorcise
Revisiting the Sleep theme, this spell, ironically, is not well-suited for Sleep synergy. The cost prohibits you from playing important follow-ups such as Darkdream Hex until you've unlocked 8(?!) mana, so the more practical application for exorcism is simply to buy yourself time. This shines in both Aggro and Control decks where you either want your opponent's creatures disabled to land a free round of attacks or stalled for a turn while you work towards a more permanent answer like Rapture Dance.
Play/win rates clearly identify this as an above average spell with a measure of success that is maintained up through higher levels of play. This indicates to me that the current price is either fairly valued or massively undervalued (see Dark Knives above for why).
All
- Play Rate — 11.9%
- Win Rate — 47.4%
- Games Played — 130,481
Mythic
- Play Rate — 14.1%
- Win Rate — 46.9%
- Games Played — 11,526
Price — $1.18
Felid Assassin
While initially a solid Aggro creature popular in standard play, the vulnerability of 1 Health becomes painfully apparent moving into Mythic levels of play where indirect sources of damage are plentiful. Nature, especially, loves ignoring Hidden with their numerous sources of RNG removal. This suggests the current price is fairly valued even if only due to the current popularity maintaining it.
All
- Play Rate — 36.5%
- Win Rate — 49.6%
- Games Played — 400,597
Mythic
- Play Rate — 22.1%
- Win Rate — 39.6%
- Games Played — 18,098
Price — $0.54
Hunting Trap
With a price that encroaches upon Core legendaries, it's not unreasonable to expect something robust. In this case, you're looking at a strict upgrade to Spiked Tea for half the mana cost. This has turned traps into an instant 2x staple for pretty much any Deception deck, as removal is harder to come back in this domain.
The lower play rate at standard levels of play is easily explained by an inflated price driven by the immense popularity (and relative success) in Mythic matches. Unfortunately, the lack of comparable alternatives is currently ensuring the current price will remain high for the foreseeable future.
All
- Play Rate — 35.1%
- Win Rate — 51.5%
- Games Played — 386,023
Mythic
- Play Rate — 71.7%
- Win Rate — 48.2%
- Games Played — 58,569
Price — $10.81
Inconspicuous Carriage
Serving as a strictly better version of Thebian Bruiser, it's no surprise it experiences above average play rates. It's unfortunate to see the win rates dipping at higher levels of play, but you're looking at an easy 2x staple for Control decks in standard play. With how often you're likely to play this garden gnome, I'd argue the current price is fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 39.3%
- Win Rate — 50.2%
- Games Played — 432,103
Mythic
- Play Rate — 38%
- Win Rate — 41.6%
- Games Played — 31,043
Price — $1.87
Jinxblade Duelist
As the most popular Core card in standard play, it's good to see it boasting one of the few win rates >50%. This takes a noticeable hit in Mythic, but the board presence offered by a conditional source of limitless passive Health gain is hard to ignore. Playing this duelist often causes your opponent to duel it right off the board in order to limit its impact, but I've seen interesting results when the removal wasn't available. For example, using Assassin's Aim to cloak him while he revs up.
The robust popularity and respectable win rates validate the current price but may suggest it's slightly undervalued when looking to the future. We're talking about *the most popular Core card, after all.
All
- Play Rate — 58.7%
- Win Rate — 50.6%
- Games Played — 644,984
Mythic
- Play Rate — 55.9%
- Win Rate — 43.8%
- Games Played — 45,656
Price — $0.67
Lokian Disciple
For a legendary creature, it's disappointing that you don't get to pick the target that goes to Sleep. Because of this, the distinct lack of both popularity and success at higher levels of play is unsurprising. Not because the abilities are ineffectual, but because anti-Sleep has become popular in the current meta thanks to Death decks. The kit seems more appropriate for an epic creature, and the (deservedly) low current price reflects that.
All
- Play Rate — 7.5%
- Win Rate — 49.7%
- Games Played — 82,376
Mythic
- Play Rate — 6.3%
- Win Rate — 36.2%
- Games Played — 5,167
Price — $11.18
Made Mark
Without any Strength to attack with, this mark serves no other purpose than to eventually die. The only way to prevent that from being a free kill for your opponent is to use some form of pump. At that point, you're effectively playing delayed card draw that also benefits your opponent. The amount of effort you have to put into triggering the draws seems wasteful, and the current play/win rates suggest most players agree. The low price tag is definitely fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 4.7%
- Win Rate — 44.3%
- Games Played — 52,013
Mythic
- Play Rate — 2%
- Win Rate — 37.3%
- Games Played — 1,659
Price — $0.31
Makeshift Shiv
Oddly enough, this relic boasts the highest win rate for Core cards at Mythic levels of play. It's also decently popular and affordably priced. The question is, why is this relic so good?
The only answer I can give is this can pair with the Orfeo's Distraction God power for 2 damage each round. That's enough to bump early-game creatures off the board, and you get 5 attacks for just 1 mana. In other words, the flexibility of the damage provides additional options for controlling the board, something especially useful in the current meta.
All
- Play Rate — 24.1%
- Win Rate — 50.6%
- Games Played — 264,683
Mythic
- Play Rate — 37.3%
- Win Rate — 48.6%
- Games Played — 30,439
Price — $0.54
Rapture Dance
Given how few cards provide an AoE removal source for Deception, I'd be disappointed if this wasn't among the top play rates for Core cards. You'll be delighted to know it actually has the highest play rate in Mythic and second highest in standard play. Deception tends to have a lull in their ability to lock down the board in the mid-game that Aggro decks often take advantage of. Having this on deck for resetting the board allows Deception players to smoothly transition into the late game where their win conditions are more plentiful.
All
- Play Rate — 57.3%
- Win Rate — 50.8%
- Games Played — 629,230
Mythic
- Play Rate — 73.1%
- Win Rate — 45.6%
- Games Played — 59,714
Price — $1.00
Reconnaissance
In my opinion, this spell is best used when following Vault Vagabond's attack (also Gleeful Pillager). If you've already peeked your opponent's top card, you'll know whether or not to grab another copy. Therein likes the weakness of this card, as you're stalling one creature's attack in the hopes that topdecking your opponent's deck will bear fruit.
Given that you're likely to sit with this card in your hand if Vault Vagabond isn't in play, diminished effectiveness of this duplication source doesn't stand up to higher levels of play. The current price is fairly valued for most situations, but I'd argue it's slightly undervalued when considering it for a Card Advantage deck designed around regular interaction with the top card of your opponent's deck.
All
- Play Rate — 16.6%
- Win Rate — 47.7%
- Games Played — 182,890
Mythic
- Play Rate — 9.1%
- Win Rate — 35.4%
- Games Played — 7,396
Price — $1.08
Slip Blade
While certainly an effective form of removal, I question the value of something that clearly wants to kill large creatures when said creatures will likely deal serious hurt to your face in return. You might knock a major threat off the board, but you've given your opponent a free attack on your face in exchange. The most practical use is in sniping key Backline support creatures that you need gone in a hurry, although 4-mana cost would feel more appropriate.
The lack of a strong win rate in Mythic undermines the highest price among Core epics, thus I'm inclined to believe this is moderately overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 9.6%
- Win Rate — 49.7%
- Games Played — 105,565
Mythic
- Play Rate — 8.1%
- Win Rate — 40.4%
- Games Played — 7,459
Price — $3.93
Switch Duelist
Compared to Felid Assassin, this is the safer choice. You only have one turn to utilize Hidden, but the switching stats provide added survivability once exposed. This can get bonkers if you stack on Dark Knives where your 6/1 flips into a 1/6 that is harder to kill. That said, any damage taken translates into reduced Strength on your turns.
The added durability makes for a wildly popular creature at all levels of play and the highest win rate in standard play. There's a slight drop going into Mythic, but the numbers demonstrate a generally reliable early-game deploy. The current price is entirely justified.
All
- Play Rate — 51.1%
- Win Rate — 51%
- Games Played — 562,004
Mythic
- Play Rate — 73.1%
- Win Rate — 47.1%
- Games Played — 59,701
Price — $2.47
Thalia, Charite Temptress
This legendary feels like a wasted opportunity, as it'd be strange for your opponent to hold low-cost cards into the mid-game unless they specific uses in mind. This means you're overpaying for a 4/3 creature that has limited impact, at best. Play/win rates are disappointing, and the current price might even be moderately overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 1.6%
- Win Rate — 46.4%
- Games Played — 17,944
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.6%
- Win Rate — 35.7%
- Games Played — 507
Price — $11.36
Trapdoor
As the budget form of ransom, the lack of increasing costs makes this a stalling tactic that does little to develop your board position. Alternatively, this could be paired with Cutthroat Insight to swipe your opponent's creature, but the win rates in Mythic suggest it's not a winning strategy in the long-term. The current price is likely slightly overvalued.
All
- Play Rate — 22.5%
- Win Rate — 49%
- Games Played — 247,345
Mythic
- Play Rate — 11.1%
- Win Rate — 36%
- Games Played — 9,030
Price — $0.87
Umber Arrow
Although limited to targets with 2 Strength, one particularly nasty use is stealing a Deadly creature to kill any other opposing creature. You can also land 1:2 trades via smashing 2/1's or 2/2's into each other for early-game control. This flexibility helps explain the significant popularity of the spell justified by decent win rates at all levels. The current price is certainly undervalued given the numbers, though.
All
- Play Rate — 43.2%
- Win Rate — 50.7%
- Games Played — 474,540
Mythic
- Play Rate — 61.1%
- Win Rate — 45.2%
- Games Played — 49,947
Price — $0.69
Uncanny Rogue
Spot removal in the form of Deadly is hard to argue with, and the rogue's stats aren't terrible at 4/3. You have tremendous flexibility in deciding how best to use it, and the win rate in standard play supports its effectiveness. The above average popularity takes a decent hit moving into Mythic, as the win rate seems to drop a similar amount.
I can only assume that the abundance of cheaper removal ready to immediately remove the rogue from the board lessens the impact of it's use, especially given the threat range possible with only 3 Health (i.e. Blight Bomb). So, while I happen to think the current price is moderately undervalued given the utility of on-demand Deadly, it's important to note that efficient trading remains highly important for Deception. Don't just trade a 3-cost wimp for a 3-cost tank. Look for skewed opportunities such as 2-cost fodder trading with 6-cost+ all-stars.
All
- Play Rate — 41%
- Win Rate — 50.1%
- Games Played — 450,951
Mythic
- Play Rate — 31.5%
- Win Rate — 42%
- Games Played — 25,708
Price — $0.38
Vault Vagabond
By now, you've hopefully noticed that Deception doesn't have a single card in the Core set above a 50% win rate in Mythic. Not only is the domain less popular, but it struggles to find its footing in the current meta. One of the ways Deception can be successful is by copying an opponent's strategy to use against them.
Being able to duplicate cards before your opponent can use them themselves is great both for information (you know what's coming), but it creates card advantage that makes trading creatures off the board more appealing. If you maintain 1:1 trades the entire game, you will have cards left over to piece together a win. This vagabond is considerably popular for a reason, and above average win rates (for Deception) at all levels of play position her as a solid include in just about any theme. The value of card advantage is no joke, so I'd suggest she's currently slightly undervalued.
All
- Play Rate — 41.4%
- Win Rate — 50%
- Games Played — 454,819
Mythic
- Play Rate — 44.8%
- Win Rate — 43.2%
- Games Played — 36,613
Price — $0.62
RANKINGS by Category
All
Play Rate
| 1st | Jinxblade Duelist | 58.7% | 1.46 Copies in Deck | 644,984 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Rapture Dance | 57.3% | 1.45 Copies in Deck | 629,230 total matches |
| 3rd | Switch Duelist | 51.1% | 1.43 Copies in Deck | 562,004 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 24th | Made Mark | 4.7% | 1.21 Copies in Deck | 52,013 total matches |
| 25th | Double Dealer | 3.8% | 1.05 Copies in Deck | 42,032 total matches |
| 26th | Thalia, Charite Temptress | 1.6% | Unique | 17,944 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Hunting Trap | 51.5% | 1.31 Copies in Deck | 386,023 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Switch Duelist | 51% | 1.43 Copies in Deck | 562,004 total matches |
| 3rd | Rapture Dance | 50.8% | 1.45 Copies in Deck | 629,230 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 24th | Thalia, Charite Temptress | 46.4% | Unique | 17,944 total matches |
| 25th | Darkdream Hex | 45% | 1.15 Copies in Deck | 81,240 total matches |
| 26th | Made Mark | 44.3% | 1.21 Copies in Deck | 52,013 total matches |
Price
| 1st | Thalia, Charite Temptress | $11.36 | Legendary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Lokian Disciple | $11.18 | Legendary |
| 3rd | Hunting Trap | $10.81 | Epic |
| . . . | |||
| 24th | Uncanny Rogue | $0.38 | Common |
| 25th | Darkdream Hex | $0.36 | Common |
| 26th | Made Mark | $0.31 | Common |
Mythic
Play Rate
| 1st | Rapture Dance | 73.1% | 1.45 Copies in Deck | 59,714 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Switch Duelist | 73.1% | 1.43 Copies in Deck | 59,701 total matches |
| 3rd | Hunting Trap | 71.7% | 1.31 Copies in Deck | 58,569 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 24th | Darkdream Hex | 1.7% | 1.15 Copies in Deck | 1,420 total matches |
| 25th | Double Dealer | 1.3% | 1.05 Copies in Deck | 1,097 total matches |
| 26th | Thalia, Charite Temptress | 0.6% | Unique | 507 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Makeshift Shiv | 48.6% | 1.13 Copies in Deck | 30,439 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Hunting Trap | 48.2% | 1.31 Copies in Deck | 58,569 total matches |
| 3rd | Cutthroat Insight | 48% | 1.12 Copies in Deck | 17,657 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 24th | Reconnaissance | 35.4% | 1.17 Copies in Deck | 7,396 total matches |
| 25th | Double Dealer | 35.1% | 1.05 Copies in Deck | 1,097 total matches |
| 26th | Darkdream Hex | 33.6% | 1.15 Copies in Deck | 1,420 total matches |
Conclusion
In summary, Rapture Dance and Switch Duelist are favorites at any level of play, while Jinxblade Duelist and Hunting Trap are reliable staples for any Deception deck. Makeshift Shiv makes a surprise appearance at the top of the win chart in Mythic, while Thalia fails to deliver despite being the most expensive card in the set.
Commons like Assassin's Aim, Cutthroat Insight, and Umber Arrow serve as reliable upgrades on a budget, while Anti-Magic Expert and Uncanny Rogue seem to be getting overlooked despite their situational potential for seizing immediate board control. The same can be said for Exorcise and Annoying Bureaucrat which feature below average pricing despite their useful mechanics.
Until next time!
~ Ent
Sources
Images
https://market.x.immutable.com/
Data
Spreadsheet
Deception - Welcome Set
Deception - Core Set
Solid post like the others. So I will not be long winded. Keep up the great work. I can not wait to see when you have done all the Gods and compile the master post.
Yeah, we're approaching the halfway point and an end to my ramblings are in sight! Kinda excited to be able to look back and compile everything in one post to get a true sense of how each domain is stacking up in the current meta.
Will be interesting to see what things people complain about are true and what things have been missed.
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Boring!! when mage?? XD
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