Greetings fellow mortals!! I hope everyone is having a nice day!
I am excited to announce Odds Unchained! It's a new tool built by me and @fmarins to help you in deck design. It provides the probability of a set of selected cards be found in your starting hand if you hard mulligan for it. It's the first iteration yet, so any feedback from you is most welcome to help us improve it.
This post is a guide to how to use the tool, and shows the odds of one staple deck that people have been curious about, myself included! Let's check out!
TL;DR
- Go to Odds Unchained: https://oddsunchained.netlify.app/
- Insert the deck code (from Share Deck in game or GUdecks.com decks)
- Select up to 2 cards you want in your starting hand
- Check the odds of that hand happens
Death Zombie
Why not select one of the most card dependent deck? This deck needs a zombie generator card from the start to begin flooding the board with zombies. It usually runs 2x Cursed Obelisks and 2x Necroscepter as the early game zombie generator. Ideally, we need at least one of these cards in hand from the start of the game.
The first thing we need is the deck code. You can collect it from decks at GUdecks.com or at game's workshop, by clicking in Share deck button.
I used one from GUdecks, it has the following deck code:
GU_1_1_CCcCCcIABIABHAFHAFICOICOIBZIBZCDSCDSIBJIBJIADIADIAJIAJIACIACIAFIAKIAKCCGCCeCCeIBXCAgCAgIBP
Now, heading to Odds Unchained, we paste the deck code in the field (1), click in Load Deck (2) and select Necroscepter and Cursed Obelisks from the list (3) and finally ask for the results (4).
There're some information in the dashboard!
The first row (1) brings the probability of finding at least one the cards you selected:
- Odds of finding the cards being the first player only
- An average of both: starting half of your games as 1st player and another half as 2nd player
- Odds of finding the cards being the second player only
The second row (2) is related to a Weekend Ranked. If you always hard mulligan trying to find the selected cards:
- It brings the most likely number of matches you should start with the cards in hand during the Weekend Ranked;
- The minimum number of matches you expect to find your cards at the start of the game. You should start at least this number of matches with the cards in hand;
- The minimum number of matches where your cards will NOT be found. Plan to play at least this number of matches without your cards in hand, even hard mulliganing for them. Remember, this number is the minimum, it can (and probably will) be greater than that.
Looking at the numbers it seems there's a great chance (70.9%) of finding at least one Cursed Obelisks or Necroscepter (even both) at my starting hand.
Still, looking at the second row, I can expect 18 matches (or around 18) with one of those cards in hand at the start of the game in my Weekend Ranked, only if I hard mulligan for them. But even at an unlucky WR of mine, at least 12 starting hands should contain the desired cards. Finally, I'd expect at least 2 matches where the cards will not be found at the starting hand, even in a lucky WR.
That's it for today! See you next time!
Cool stats tool. It's nice seeing the odds going first or second and expected numbers of bricking during weekend ranked.
I think using a hypergeometric calculator and punching in the numbers would get you with in 10% relative to what actually is the odds.
The weekend ranked tab is very useful in my opinion, really liked this outcome!
The values were simulated using 20k samples, so there might be some deviation from the true value, around +- 0.7%.
I'm always amazed when I see such a great work coming from a game's community. Congrats @mbaggio and @fmarins!
Thanks! Indeed the community build many great stuff moved by passion only.
This is a fantastic tool! This way, I can be smarter about trading off 2x of all my cards vs putting in legendaries to see how it affects my mulligan chances. Thank you!
And we have plans to add new features yet!
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