Im my experience, confusion works like how Copperpitch describes it. You have 50% to hit your intended target than the other 50% is split evenly over the remaining possible targets. So in your second example, Rhino has a 50/50 to hit each frontline.
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Thanks, squid. We've got two devs saying different things and a gray area due to 100% to hit what you target when it's the only valid target. I'm going to wait for devs to get back, get some clarification, and then update the post accordingly.
Honestly wouldn't be surprised that the devs are wrong, some of them didn't know about the mulligan change in 2019.