A Key Demographics
It is election season in the United States and media is all over understanding and analysing the 'potential' result. Disclaimer first: I have no clue on how the result of the election will turn out. I know I will vote Harris and all the democratic option down ballot, which is more important in my city. However, to be honest as I live in Texas, my vote doesn't matter much because of the electoral college. Regardless of my voting, Texas will be Red this year too, and that's that. So this post is neither about my political view or prediction. In fact if I am being 100% honest a Republican ticket victory is highly beneficial to my personal gain and it is highly friendly to the industry I work in. That said let us dive into the issue of a particular demographics.
The plot above is from a NY Times article I was reading, titled:
They Used to Be Ahead in the American Economy. Now They’ve Fallen Behind
In 1980, white men without a college degree earned about 7% more than average American worker. I have close friend named Dustin, who is born in Utah, said something to me that I will always remember. It was something his dad said to him. He said you can earn two ways in the work force, either with your body or with your brain, both will get you same amount of money, but one is better for your body than the other. Dustin's dad was a farm worker early on, then in construction, and then a roughneck in the oil field. Dustin is a geoscientist just like me. We both chuckled more recently about his dad comment (his dad is retired now), and said to each other, back in his dad's days, it was true, but it is no longer true in the United States. The chart above showed exact that. White men without a college degree, earn about the same today compared to 1980, but inflation adjusted their true earning is much less compared to the average american workers today, about 12% less. In fact they are the lowest earning demographics in the United States.
What happens in a Capitalist Economy
I am a capitalist, and I live and thrive in a capitalist economy. However, there is one thing you must understand, in a capitalist economy, the relative value of everything is conveyed with money. It is not just your perception of well being but how you are compared with another citizen is totally based on how much you earn. I do not like this personally, but that is the US capitalism at its best or worst depending on your perspective.
Please understand, the data above and the discussion that will follow is a national averages, there can be pockets of economy where this may not be true. However, as I look around and read/listen/watch, this is a fairly accurate description. That particular demographics in question saw their 'value' in the society drop with every government for the last 40 years.
There are multiple reasons for the manufactuing job decline off course (we are not going to get into that), but the fact that it happened and is real, is undeniable. In this backdrop there can be a 'change narrative' in messaging to the people of this demographics.
- Go to college, get educated, get a better job, earn more money
- Look at 'them', 'they' are the reason for your decline, you need to fight back and take control
The first narrative is not easy to implement, and in certain societies very hard and slow to implement. It also goes against the natural instict of the people and they are starting now from behind. It will take them generation to overcome the decline.
The second narrative is the 'victim mentality' and it is easy to communicate, and sounds 'fair'. It matters not whether it is easy or hard to implement, but it is music to the ears for the people. Trump excelled in giving that second message to the American people, and he is incredibly successful in doing so. I have no idea if that would be enough to get him pass the finish line for the second time or not, but if it does, it is this demographics and this message that will do so.
Joe Rogan Podcast Interview
That leads to the recent 3 hr interview of Trump taken by Joe Rogan at the Joe Rogan Experience. Full disclaimer: I do not like Joe Rogan podcast most times, especially this particular episode was painful to listen for me just because of poor quality of the talks and rambling, but it is what it is.
Live Link Episode #2219:
Joe Rogan said something here that resonated with me. Joe was answering why Trump is popular. I think Joe nailed it here 100%
JOE ROGAN: You said a lot of wild shit. You said a lot of wild shit, and then CNN, in all their brilliance, by highlighting your wild shit made you much more popular, and they boosted you in the polls, because people were tired of someone talking in this bullshit, pre-prepared politician lingo. And even if they didn’t agree with you, they at least knew, whoever that guy is, that’s him, that’s really him. When you see certain people talk, certain people in the public eye, you don’t know who they are, you have no idea who they are, it’s very difficult, and you see them in conversations, they have these pre-planned answers, they say everything, it’s very rehearsed, you never get to the meat of it.
I watch a lot of CNN, especially during the last four election cycles; and I must say this is 100% correct. With that I am going to stop writing. Good luck to us in 2 weeks or less!
Here is an interesting perspective on a related topic, and from personal lived experience.
it's about the value of labour, but in a more general sense of the earning capacity relative to the "cost of living over time"
Regardless of your demographic, you still have a limited time each week to work and earn, you can move up the scale of "earning potential" and earn more for your time, but in a very real sense the "value" of your earning is manifest in your social class/lifestyle and the family you support
Here goes...make of this what you will.....
My grandfather left school at 14, grandmother the same. He worked at sea, started as a cabin boy and ended his career as Chief Steward ( a management position), my grandmother never worked. They supported and raised 5 children and were in the "own your house/car" demographic, so not poor, not rich
My father left school at 16, my mother the same.He went into the textile industry, worked up to Management, my mother started to work when we were past early childhood ( she ended her career as a nurse when they married), I was a teenager and my youngest sister 8 or 9 at the time. They had 3 children and occupied the same "class" as their parents, with the same lifestyle.
I am educated to post graduate lvl, my wife to degree level, I have worked for myself in my early career , now I am in middle management and work internationally. We both work and my wife started working when our youngest started school, but we needed au pares to held with the kids. We have two children and are in the same social class again.
Note the drift upwards in education standard, the need for more incomes to support the same lifestyle and the decreasing number of dependants that can be supported.
I think its a similar story from a different angle.
Thanks for the food for thought
P.S. I'm about 30min into the JR podcast, I catch JR in instalments when walking the dog, think the dog may get a longer walk this morning. Trump sure is a "case study" imo
It's the same personal story. What your family did to maintain the same standard of living is got educated more and more through the three generations. That is the right way to climb and maintain the social ladder.
We just can't have a repeat of 2016. The world is not ready for a second Trump presidency. I would fear for our society as a whole.
Well Duce ready or not it has a near 50% chance. Unfortunately I am not much help as I live in Texas. But I hope our friends in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania stand up to the challenge!
I don't have much faith in the "Big 10" college states. A bunch of shadows ruling in minority but I have faith that Texas can change in time (like Arizona did). That's what Abbott and his team are so hellbent on preventing because that will be the end of the republic as we know it. Or if Arcadia decides they've had enough.
“Turning Texas Blue” is a social campaign for the last quarter century or more. I am sympathetic to it but we have no results to show. We tried very hard with Beto’s campaign against Ted Cruz. We came close but not close enough. We are trying again with Cruz this time around with Collin Allred, who knows what will happen!
Mind you if we can turn Texas blue in some decade in future, it is game over for Republican Party in this country :)
We'd surely have war before Texas turned quietly in the night.
What is happening at the Madison square garden right now? How did we get all these people at NYC? He bus them? :)
Probably just a Billie Eilish concert 🤣🤣
The man says he's going to tear up the Constitution. He's going to be a dictator on day 1. He's going to strip the Civil Service of career appointees and replace with sycophants. Etc. Etc. Etc. If someone tells you what they are going to do, believe them.
And people are voting for him because he makes them laugh??? He makes them feel comfortable?
Game over.
Yes he said all that and much more. I think if given his way he means it too. For any other politician it would be game over if you say 2% of that, but with him it's not. People cheers and claps.
I don't think it's game over. Even if he wins govt is still 50-50 and we will stonewall against his every move. I think there will be some damage he can accomplish but not a lot. That's my hope.
Yes!
But it would be nice if we don’t have to. If my some way we can beat him then I think we got rid of him for good politically.
I voted Harris and all democrats on the ticket. My vote will not matter just like yours as I am in blue state. But it will matter for local initiatives and candidates.
To add to what you said Trump is speaking at a 4th grade level and he is resonating with the masses. Watch a movie Idiocracy... it is practically here...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy
I haven't seen it. Putting it on the list to watch
Just be sure to be ready for very crude humor.
People from other countries following the US election are also worried. Those that care about Democracy, that is. I don't think the current system is perfect, but taking the authoritarian route will most definitely not make it better.
The electoral college system in the United States is imperfect. However that is not the main problem. The problem is the rise of conspiracy theories post 2016 and even earlier. Essentially what we call the era of Trump politics. There is no such thing called truth or facts anymore. That’s the problem.
I feel your pain. I may live on the far side of the world, but my home State is Indiana and so that is where I vote via absentee ballot (which, I guess, according to Trump means my vote is fake). Meaning my vote almost never counts as the State is almost always Red. Ho hum... so it goes.
Rogan is just so incoherent most of the time. Even when he has a good point, he can't seem to get it out without a ton of digression, backing up, repeating himself, segueing into stories about his mixed martial arts days, etc. It is so painful to listen to him. That said, that is a pretty good quote you pull. I detest Trump. But there is something to what Rogan said there.
Yes at Indiana your impact is probably similar to mine. I do think I impact the down ballot though. Houston is heavily democratic. Our house ticket is democratic. Senate is tightly contested although Ted Cruz should win if the polls are remotely accurate.
Back to Rogan. During Covid when he gained popularity he was deranged to probably outright dangerous. That said that stuff sells in America now and he knows how to sell it. He is popular and his podcast is incredibly popular no denying that. Since I am a fan of spoken words I must keep a tab on the narrative whether I like it or not. I absolutely don't like Joe Rogan.
That dang electoral college huh. I really feel like it is an idea that has kind of passed it's prime. It sounds like you and I tend to lean the same way though in Michigan, I think my vote probably holds a bit more weight. I know what you mean about a right victory not being the worst thing personally. My hope is that the crypto lobby has grown powerful enough that it won't matter as much as people are thinking. Though the idea of a second civil war should the left win could throw a wrench in everything!
You vote at Michigan is a big deal! 😂
No, I don't think there will be any civil disobedience even this time if Harris wins. He will thwart it swiftly as they control the governance. So I think we are generally safe there.
I think crypto is neutral regarding the partisan politics.
Really? You think he is going to graciously accept defeat if he loses? You are far more optimistic than I am! I think my side of the state is more democrat with all of the unions. The west side of the state is far more conservative. Then the rural areas are a whole different story!
lol no they won't accept and will try their best to disrupt. Difference is this time the government and the judiciary apparatus is ready to handle such things. So disruption will be isolated at best. That's my hope. Yes I am optimistic :)
Okay, I understand. That is definitely a good point.
Election in your country has gone pretty wild especially last election. There are wild claims that are not proven but a lot of people still believe in. Just check twitter and there are threads about unverified claims that a lot of people agree with.
That is why I don't have a twitter account. It is now a propaganda machine
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You say you are a crapitalust, and having grown up in this current paradigm, that is not surprising.
But, my question is, can you debunk the math in chapter 9 of this book?
IF you can't, you might want to start looking for alternatives to crapitalism.
Not sure if I can or can not, it is subjective and highly biased. Are you talking about this?
(The Worker) X (The Worker's Needs) = (The Worker's Power)No, I'm talking about how the system is designed so that all the money ends up in the hands of those with the most.
IF the economic system is designed for the poor to spend everything and the rich to perpetually grow their capital from that spending, the inevitable result of this is when the poor burn it all down having nothing left to lose.
Reading chapter 8 may help with the characterization.
I know you are busy, perhaps you can farm out the actual reading.
So, to be clear, my understanding of what chapter 9 illustrates is that the poor spend all their money back into a system that funnels it to those that already have most of it.
The rich do not spend all their money on surviving, their 'extra' money goes into making more money.
Nothing wrong with that situation, per se.
But, the inevitable ending is when the poor riot because the rich extracted too much and rioting costs the poor nothing.
This book offers a better split of the profits, yet retains the basics of crapitalism.
This short story offers a monkey wrench, but wage slaves, in general, don't read anything they are not forced to read.
Comfortable slaves never rebel.™
I have not read the book, after your comment only able to skim through the chapter. More time is needed.
However, what you say in the comment is a well known problem of 'trickel down economy" that is a by-product of capitalism. No argument there.
Take your time digesting the concepts expressed in these books, the inevitable will play out on its own time schedule, or it won't.
I was just hoping you could explain to me why what I have determined to be true from having read and digested the concepts expressed in these books is wrong.
No hurries, if you can debunk the math of chapter 9 you will be the first.
I've asked people that make their livings from math, and they refuse to respond to the question.
Just giving you a chance to not join that list.
It's interesting to see how the demographic composition of Joe Rogan's audience influence public sentiment! I never thought that podcasts can form a new "intellectual elite"
I heard there is woman campaigning for the presidential election, how is coming along up there and who has ur vote