Price of Hive
Price is Hive is simply the price it is currently trading at Bittrex, Binance, Ionomy or any other exchanges. Or you may say it is the price expressed in the price feed of a witness server. Perhaps even the "average" price reported at coinmarketcap. Whatever, your cup to tea it might be in terms of price, I think we all understand that they can be slightly different (highly variable in some rare cases) but more or less they tend to converge. In other words, since Hive is a publicly traded instrument, its price is the cumulative net result vector of all the external forces that is active at any given time. So I must say the price of Hive is 'right'. Yes, it is 'right' today, it was right yesterday, and it will be 'right' tomorrow. At any given time, the price of a publicly traded instrument is right.
4-hr chart of Hive from Tradingview
Although that is easy to write, but it is not an easy concept to warm up to. It is simply because we are taught in a way that is quite strikingly different from that concept. We are told that price of certain objects can be cheap or expensive or fairly valued at a given time. There is nothing wrong with that statement. The price of a Madonna Concert ticket bought at a few days before the major announcement that this is Madonna's last public show, can be very cheap earlier, but very expensive now. What I am trying to say is the price of an object varies, and therefore, there is a fundamental intuition of intelligent species like ours tend to think that, we can 'value' certain object, perhaps related to others, and therefore can call it checp or expensive at the present time; in expectation that its price may rise or fall in the future respectively. Here we enter the strange world of price prediction! This is where all the mess and debate starts actually. The concept of right and wrong among other things.
Enough philosophy! What's the Price of Hive tomorrow, next week-month-year
I am sorry to dissapoint you, but I do not have the first damn clue! Also, here is the bad news, neither do anyone else. This is the fact, and it is undisputed. Then why is all the non-sense, you ask..Well, I have the good news. There are merits to both technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis (a bit difficult for a token, but possible). What it means, that although you can't predict the price accurately, or at all, but if you are a moron, like the rest of us, and you happen to be in a trade, then you can use TA to manage it effectively. A classic example is the recent price rally of Hive from 2000 satoshis to 12000 satoshis. Yeah, I use Hive/BTC exclusively; because to me, I personally never bought hive with USD, so its only BTC for me. Anyways, when that rally happened (or was happening at the time) if you knew TA, you could have doubled... trippled your trading capital. I explained that in a previous post. Point of that post was, when a fundamentally driven rally happens (in our case Huobi exchange listing and associated airdrop), it gives many opportunities within a short time frame to capitalize the gain. Then the rally fizzes, and the party is over (in terms of trading). Usually that is the deal with most alt-coins.
The expectation for the long-term investors and/or content creators at Hive is after each short-term rally, we hold a higher and higher low after the subsequent drop. Then on the next rally expectation is we will hit a new all-time-high (ATH). Higher-lows, higher-highs, defines the uptrend.
In the simple cartoon above, which supposed to represent the idealized Hive chart (LOL!), you can clearly see the expectation. However, reality will likely be quite different looking. As long as we hold some kind of gain after each listing, we will be good.
What's in the Long Term
Oh Boy! That to me can be a strange and funny phrase. Here is my take on it. In Long Term we are all dead. Okay, with that out of the way, let us look at the real- life daily chart of Hive:
Ok, so first the bad news. TA is completely useless with this little data (only little over a month). But that doesn't mean we can't try. We can and we will. Right now the key things I am looking at in this chart is the low base and the ATH. I have no price prediction for you. But personally I'd love to buy anywhere inside the Green Box. The boundary of the box is between 1000-2700 satoshi. That is a fairly wide range. Are we going to get there? That's prediction, like I say, I have no idea. But if we get there, I like to buy Hive at 2700 and anywhere inside the box.
Ok, so when to sell. I can't tell you. But I can tell you what I will do. I am not planning to sell anything, as I am trying to build my position, so my personal pattern in one sided. But I might sell some of my earning or do some flipping in the exchanges. I like to do that at new ATH. I love ATH, and so should you.
Disclaimer: This is NOT professional financial advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. I am NOT a Certified Financial Adviser. Consult professionals for any financial, accounting or legal related questions you have.
Charts are created in Tradingview.com, which is a free service.
we have eyes, we know price of HIVE
Good for you!
This is hilarious coming from you, lmao.
So...do nothing!
Got it.
For me; I am buying a bit in the 2700.
If enough people are buying before that it might not dip down there at all! :P
Will be interesting to see how it affects buy pressure once the steem powerdowns are done for mostly.
If it doesn't great! I will be the happiest. I will buy here then :)
Yes @azircon ...
... and we can "take that to the bank!" 😉
Seriously, nice effort to give us the benefit of some of your expertise. Thanks! 👍
Well, I try me make fun of the fact that lots of predictions are usually touted towards us; but what I have learned over the years that there is no wise old man in the financial markets.
Agreed ...
... although there seems to be no shortage of those continually trying to prove otherwise.
Yes, during the 90s bull market and even coming out of it in the early 2000s, respectable firms like Vanguard used to say long term = 10 years. But right after financial crisis of 2008, they promptly changed long term = 15 years. Now when you talk to them, they will tell you long term = “very long time”....
Sliding scale, eh?
Yep! 😉
#mortalproblems
I have to read this a few times, I am not good at technical thjngs. But this looks so interesting! Thanks for sharing.
Very true.
I have changed my strategy a little. When it comes to liquid Hive, no point im hodling too much but or sell. As for HBD I tend to wait to convert until hive is lower in value unless I think Hive will moon. If not it doesn't really matter.
That said, I think the value of HP is very different than the value of Hive, we trade liquidity for inflation. When I feel Hive is trading flat, I power up. I'll keep some, but right now I like volitility trading.
In the early days of a token volatility is common. It can be used to ones advantage. So keeping some as liquid can be a good idea. That is a good way to increase your net BTC reserve without buying BTC.
That's exactly my thinking, long gone are the days of an ICO where simply creating a token creates demand. If I'm not careful, I end up with too much investment in altcoins. I'm going to try to hold BTC roughly equal to its dominance % with the rest in a few others I closely follow like ETH and Hive (not including HP).
I think these days 2000-7000HP is required to use Hive to its full potential, 25k~150k is required to have influence. Hive is still very new and it hasn't found its level yet. There are also a lot of power-downs happening. My thought is this is great for distribution and the long term outlook, but in the medium term, we could see a little decrease to a price similar to that before the split (15~20 cents). I'm following the statistics closely and so far I like what I see.
My previous HIVEBTC TA went terribly wrong. Haha.. I think I will write another one in my next post.
Fully agree to the statement above 🙃
TA assumes good price and volume action and and liquid market. Volume moves price; liquidity is volume. Neither are available in any cryptocurrency other than BTC. Therefore rest of the alt-coins essentially follow BTC and underperforms. Coins like hive are new and volatile and news driven. TA will only have trade management use in this case.
I was using my STEEM to buy HIVE but as my last lot was at 11c, I can no longer bring myself to do it. Psychological, of course..
Same here. I am looking to swap some steem for hive. But steem prices are tanking, so that does not help the cause.
Yeah, i have been playing with hive for few weeks now and honestly it seems there are no specific patterns to follow in order to predict the price.
Yesterday, hive was traded around 3290 sat at one point until someone bought big and push the price all the way to 3500.
Day trading is exhausting af. Need to prioritize ratio above emotions.
Day trading is tough. Only advisable for a younger crowd, and with other people's money. My personal thoughts of course.
I do like some philosophy behind the lines :)
As you mentioned in another comment, the early days of a token (or stock, etc) are tough to track, but one thing you can mostly guarantee is volatility.
Your buy range is quite chunky, the high and low of that range is a 4x - 10x to 10000 Satoshi, a big difference!
Lets see where we go - I have a little liquid just in case we get some positive action :D
Those philosophical thoughts are mostly not written in any books. I have learned them over the years doing numerous mistakes.
1000-2700 do seem big. But if you measure the daily volatility of hive during the only rally and drop it fashioned, you will see it is reasonable. During the rally; April 24-26, and the drop April 27-28; the price range was higher than my green box. That is sort of the rational behind the big range.
Also technical hive consolidated in range before the spike rally, so value proposition suggest I buy in that range.
Again, I am not predicting the price will go to that range. I have never done prediction in my life on any instrument. But I am simply saying, if the price goes in that range, I will be looking to buy.
My trading is basically a series of if-then statements! Now I see someones eye lighting up! :)
Yes, that's why I appreciate these posts over a the 'here is a chart, this is where I think the price will go' posts.
If abh12345 buys then sell :)
Ha ha; we can set up a bot, eh? :)
It’s perfectly hedged and market neutral.
I'm sure you know someone who can provide :)
Would be interesting to see just how the bot performs, I'm sure pretty well!
Good news, sir ... I don't really know about the world of blockchain
waiting for a slight dip as bitcoin is not in a good zone can pump or dump from here on and it will have a impact on alts so just for that perfect moment to average it down :)
Let the price flow....
I was fortunate I sold my holdings when it was 0.74$ . Now planning to buy a bag of it again .
I was around during the SBD madness and have sold almost everything I had in order to obtain a flat...since then I didn’t rly have anything to invest into the system that I owe so much to. Now when we forked and Hive pumped (i sold at 9k satoshi) + iwas powered down and sold most of my Steem right after the snapshot) I am finally empowered again and I’m looking to strengthen my Hive positions as much as possible. I love it here and I owe it to the community. And I plan to me engaged.
Trading-wise…Actually my first buy targets were from 3,5k - 3,3k satoshi. I bought back about 15% in that range...Vast majority of my buy ins are tho in your range too so we were kinda on the same boat:)Since I think that BTC will still find new local high due to the halving it should push Hive somewhere into that range imho. But just to be safe I bought something even now!
BTW You made me laugh so hard:D them little jokes...:P
Well, you got your 3300 right now, what do you say?
I had to fail to convey what I wanted...one thing that I wanted to convey is that I already bought back 15% of what I sold during the pump between 3,5-3,3k satoshi.
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As an Altcoin, it is at the mercy of the Market. 4th qtr and before it will look much better IMHO.
$4 would be nice
That would make it a top 15 coin. I don't think this place is quite there yet.
Good thought though.