Being first helps a lot but remember MySpace was first before Facebook. Technology and ideas develop and some times the initial ideas, although good, can be greatly improved upon by others. I agree there is no obvious candidate yet but usability, utility and transaction speed have to be key success factors.
A do believe though Bitcoin will be around for years to come, perhaps not as the everyday currency for transactions.
Thanks for sharing these sound thoughts. I am compelled to agree with you, especially with the logic of arguments.