What’s the state of the general aviation industry?
That’s a question we hear a lot at Air Facts, sometimes by prophets of doom looking for confirmation, sometimes by new pilots trying to get a handle on the community they have just joined, and sometimes by outsiders who genuinely don’t know. Unfortunately, there’s no simple answer, although plenty of pilots are willing to offer one.
Answering the question is hard because, for a start, “general aviation” includes a huge variety of airplanes, pilots, and operations.
With all those things in mind, here is a look at some interesting charts that offer a glimpse at General Aviation in the 21st century, TOGETHER they suggest a few trends. But more than anything, these charts show how general aviation is changing.
Airplanes and Activity
1. New Piston Aircraft sales still stink.
According to the GAMA (General Aviation Manufacturers Association) 2018 Annual report, it has been shown that new piston airplanes sales still stink and it is quite obvious after the great recession it has not been covered yet.
2. But experimental airplanes are more popular than ever.
With new piston deliveries so weak, is there a bright spot? Yes – experimental airplanes are growing in popularity and make up an increasingly large part of the GA fleet. They are also increasingly sophisticated and packed with advanced technology that is driving the market in many cases.
The term experimental aircraft is usually used to refer to aircraft flown with an experimental aircraft. In the United States, this includes most homebuilt aircraft; many of which are based on conventional designs and hence are experimental only in name.
3. GA airplanes aren’t flying as much as they used to.
General aviation activity – at least with approach control and centers – has likewise not recovered from the Great Recession, although it has leveled out recently. This could be a result of less flying overall, or simply less use of ATC services.
Pilots
4. ATPs will soon overtake private pilots.
Here is that chart of active private pilots, but instead of just looking at the trend line, consider it in comparison to ATPs (Airline Transport Pilots) and you’ll see a major trend. The pilot population is increasingly professional, not recreational.
Active Private Pilots = Airline Transport Pilots
5. Airline hiring is booming.
According to FAPA (Future and Active Pilot Advisor), it has been shown that after the 9/11 the airline hiring declines and when it’s started to grow the great recession happened and the airline hiring again fall but now the airline hiring is booming again which gives a new pilot to chase a career.
Safety
6. Fatal accidents are declining.
Besides the number of pilots and airplanes, one important measure of industry health is safety, and fatal accidents are the place to start. Obviously this could be due to either safer flying or lower levels of activity. The FAA attempts to measure an accident rate (fatal accidents per 100,000 hours flown), but this is, at best, a rough guess. Even using that measure, the same trend holds a steady but slow decline.
7. The Causes of Accidents Are Not New.
Beyond the total, it’s worth exploring why pilots crash airplanes. The story is depressingly familiar, with loss of control leading the list. This has received massive amounts of attention in recent years, but note how many accidents are caused by power plant failures and runway accidents.
CONCLUSION:
None of these charts tells a complete story, but when it combined it is easy to determine the state of the industry. The 2009 financial crisis blows general aviation activity; general aviation is still recovering from it. The private, professional pilots and drone operators are increasing. The safety record is also improving, but the airplane still crashes because a pilot lost control or ran out of gas.
“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” –John Zimmerman
Thank You
P.S. The chart is made according to my researches.
Bibliography:
GAMA-2018-Annual-Report-2.pdf
https://airfactsjournal.com/2017/09/general-aviation-trends-12-charts/
https://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp
https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=21274
https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/Pages/aviation_stats.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experimental_aircraft