A couple really expensive housing markets that do not fit this narrative are Washington and Hawaii, both places are very expensive in terms of housing and neither is showing significant migration out of the state! In fact Hawaii is positive.
"In the report, Seattle ranks fifth in the U.S. for the highest median home price, trailing major metro areas like San Francisco ($1,160,000), Los Angeles ($925,000), San Diego ($875,000) and Bozeman, Montana ($737,250)."
https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/5th-most-expensive-housing-market
I am guessing people are not leaving Washington because we do have a lot of well paying tech jobs... Also, after Covid there was a trend of people working remotely and moving to cheaper or better locations, that trend is going back in reverse with all of the RTO (Return To Office) mandates...
Even locally I know of people who sold their homes and moved to cheaper states or areas of Washington and now they are looking for new jobs and some are considering coming back to the Seattle metro area...
I don't know about Washington much, but can speak of Hawaii. It's a difficult but desirable market. So not significant inflow or outflow. The Maui fire is impacting locally, but the numbers are small. Majority of the population is Oahu and that population is not really dependent on "jobs" that much.