You raise some good questions.
What happens if they just stop shipping to the US?
This would harm China more than the US. They are already in economic trouble. They need to export. Whereas the US can substitute goods from other countries. There is evidence that such changes are possible. For example, after China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, they shifted to purchasing them from Brazil. The US was able to redirect most of the soybean exports to other regions, notably the EU, Mexico, Argentina, and other Asian countries. In addition, US internal consumption increased and farmers also started shifting to other crops.
Similarly, if China stops shipping to the US, they'll have to ship somewhere else. In the meantime, the US would have to source from other places until internal production catches up to demand.
How much are Americans willing to pay for an iPhone?
Fortunately, iPhones are a bit of a luxury item, which means there is plenty of margin. However, Apple has shifted some production to India and Vietnam. Furthermore, Apple is investing in building production within the US. Both India and Vietnam have reacted to the tariffs by dropping their own tariffs. However, China is still dominant in iPhone production. But that can be changed, which hurts China more. The US will still get iPhones, but decreasingly from China.
As for vehicles and their components, they are largely exempted from tariffs by USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Even then, Mexico has already agreed to drop tariffs.
In a recent interview on Triggernometry, Jim Rickards expressed some degree of support for the actions and stated that whatever China does, "that's China's problem". I think the sentiment is similar to the approach the Trump administration is taking.
You are right in thinking that the tariffs would cause some level of inflation. However, whenever there is inflation, the Federal Reserve tends to drop interest rates. And the US Government needs interest rates to drop as they have a significant amount of debt that needs to be refinanced at a lower interest rate. The inflation is expected to be mitigated by higher domestic production, which would also result in more wages. Inflation will be temporary as Trump has already secured trillions of dollars of foreign investments to build up manufacturing in the US.
With regard to discontent, the numbers don't support it. Trump's approval ratings continue to rise. And he has even gained support by worker unions, which have never supported Republicans.
All this is not to say that there won't be economic pain. President Trump, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have a plan that they have discussed quite often leading up to the election. The plan necessarily requires killing globalism, which has been the source of economic problems for the US, Great Britain, the EU, and other developed countries that have gutted their production capacities and economically strangled their middle classes. If they follow the same plan, they will also benefit.
This is an economic reset. It is definitely having an effect like knocking over an ant hill. But the expected end result is that the US will be able to grow its economy faster than the growth of the national debt by rebuilding the middle class through domestic manufacturing and killing trade imbalances.
I recommend watching interviews with Scott Bessent, who has detailed the plan for months before and after the election. He wasn't keen on tariffs, but he has come around to understand their place and incorporated them into the overall plan. It's a massive undertaking the involves tariffs, tax cuts, refinancing national debt, attracting investment, austerity measures (DOGE), deregulation, and lots of negotiation.
I am heading to bed, so will get back to this later, but you have missed the point perhaps - I am not saying if China stops shipping to the US, I m saying if the entire rest of the world stops shipping.
Where would they get dollars? Part of what makes selling to the US beneficial, besides the massive market, is getting paid in dollars. If the US didn't have the world's reserve currency, the tariffs would just be a fart in the wind. Reserve status insulates the US from the consequences and compounds them on other countries that try to "punish" the US.
And you'll always have holdouts who decide to play ball with the US, getting maximum economic benefit at the expense of the boycotting nations. There is more upside for defectors than for boycotters. And there are already a few nations that have dropped their tariffs.
A reserve currency is only useful when there is some level of trust and stability. That is not the case now. Currencies are just tokens, and they can be replaced.
There is more upside in the US, but not with other trading partners. Very few countries are self-sufficient, or can thrive with only one trading partner.
This is a money grab, and while in the short term it might look promising for the average American with all of the "investment" coming into the country, they shouldn't believe the hype. That investment isn't in them, or for them.
I don't claim that you don't have legitimate concerns or thoughts. I just want to get across that although the media portrays Trump as capricious and haphazard, what is happening is planned and deliberate. The more I have researched the actions and the people involved, because it's not just Trump doing it on a whim, the more clear it is that the "chaos" is planned. Unfortunately, it requires breaking the status quo to bring in a new economic reality that primarily benefits the USA, but can also result in prosperity for other nations.
Much of the current international trade is based on post WWII decisions that no longer serve the US or the EU. The abrupt change is understandably worrying. But it is not happening based on the caprice of one man. There's a plan.