As some of you might be aware, the markets are down a bit from the recent highs, and HIVE is down a fair bit from its recent highs that saw it hit close to $0.70 at the start of the year. Some would call the current prise of $0.25 as circling the drain, but really, the sink is still half full compared to where it could be.
Is this a problem?
Fuck no.
Before any significant run on Bitcoin (which drives the market of course), there is a period of FUD that is triggered by some kind of ridiculous events. China or Korea banning Bitcoin, Mining energy, Mining being shutdown in China, SEC announcements, Corona, Celsius, Three Arrows, Terraform, FTX... The list is endless. And, this latest Trump move with tariffs and threat of war, could be the catalyst of the next run up.
But people seem to only feel down.
The entire global economy is on shaky ground at the moment, as traders are looking to secure or save their various positions, and corporations are panicking about where the money is going to come from. But one thing is for sure, the money will come. Initiatives will be put into place, bailouts will happen, and more debt on the future will be brought forward to finance the present. That debt will be justified as necessary because of "extraordinary circumstances" and people will just say "ok" because they will likely get a taste with some free money. Military expenditure is going to skyrocket. But whatever it is, there is always a large contraction of the crypto spring.
Crypto is far more resilient than people realise when they are just looking at the price, because the majority of Bitcoin isn't up for sale. That means that the markets are only ever playing with a percentage of the supply, which makes it look far more volatile than it actually is. While yes, ultimately the bottom is zero, these kinds of corrections are "shaking the loose hands" as they say, extracting the percentage of tokens that are liquid and people are willing to let go of. But of course, once they have been transferred into the hands of the buyers and holders, there is nothing left to drive the price down - except big news.
The news cycle is in full swing.
The FUD cycle is apparently on, which signals only one thing - we are in for a decent run in the "near" future. For instance, the Bitcoin low in 2020 was around $5000. It "slowly" increased to around $10,000 in October 2020, and then six months later in April 2021, hit around $63,000. This was on the back of Corona FUD. Just after the November 2022 collapse of FTX, Bitcoin dropped to $16,000, only to double 6 months later to $30,000, over double a year later, and then almost double at the recent $100K+ highs a year later again. And these weren't in true bull years.
Now here we are, FUDding again.
FUD is a precursor to breakouts. There are likely many reasons for this, but one of them is that the FUD is often part of larger macro events (like trade tariffs), that will mean a large amount of financial manoeuvring happens creating volatility, a lot of government manoeuvring happens which creates currency inflation, the corporations and traders do all they can to capture it for themselves, and then look to secure it in various asset classes, including crypto. Because they are buying into a deflated and throttled crypto supply market, the price is likely to move quickly and steadily for a decent amount of time until people feel comfortable, then it will explode up. Everyone will be happy, until those with significant bags who have bought the lows, scooped up the loose coins, and held - decide to take their profits. Dumping the market.
Rinse and repeat.
And now, with strategic reserves in crypto being announced by the US, it also means that every other country on earth is going to be doing the same, if they haven't been building already. There are about 55,000,000 millionaires in the world, and only 21,000,000 bitcoin - and most are unavailable to buy at current prices, and prices a fair way up from here. However, there is about 13 trillion held in foreign currency reserves globally, and some of that is also going to be pushed into crypto, or more is going to be added to get into crypto. And of course, the corporations and wealth funds aren't going to be left out of this game either, so they are chasing as well. Then there are all of the consumer buyers wanting a piece of the action.
Once those loose hands are shook dry, it could be a very interesting back half of 2025.
There are lots of reasons to sell. for instance, my wife is worried about our financial situation because I lost my salaried work. However, I still have a trickle coming in from my business and there will likely be some support once the package money runs out. But, if I don't find work, at some point we will start bleeding value, no matter how frugal we are. I am trying to assure her that we will be okay - just not via traditional means. Still, I am not selling. Not now anyway. Now is the time to gather some more for us, not sell into those who are gathering.
It is a bit scary.
We naturally favour security and certainty, not risk. But wealth development nearly always requires a "higher than natural" risk tolerance. This is an interesting area I think I will spend some time on later, but just think how we consider money as a proxy for life these days, and when we risk our money, we feel we are risking our lives - yet that is not actually the case, is it? It is similar to when our amygdala triggers a physical fear response based on conceptual threats, not just physical threats. The proxy is not the thing, but we act as if it is real.
This doesn't mean money doesn't matter, but understanding it is a concept, means that we can improve our mindset and better manage our activities around it. We needn't fear loss as deeply, which also means we don't have to be emotionally triggered as heavily. It might not "feel" good, but feelings shouldn't get in the way of the things that need to be done.
Have you done a needs analysis for yourself?
Before we act too quickly, maybe we all should.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Your analysis is something along the lines of what I am thinking, that is probably why I am slowly accumulating crypto with small buys here and there including on recent dumps. This could be a wrong strategy, as there are real risks that nobody seems to talk about. For example what if having people in charge of the most powerful country in the world using misguided beliefs like tariffs and a really warped views of the world with no moral principles other than trying to pad their pockets as much as possible will lead to a disaster? Also, US has been on a long economic up-cycle driven by money printing, borrowing and all kinds of acrobatics, what if the long cycle is over and we will get a recession or even a depression like in 1929?
To me that is a real scenario, we might get the last crazy pop in all kind of assets including stocks and crypto this year before a crash the likes we have not seen for almost 100 years...
It likely will lead to disaster, but financially I would rather be holding something distributed than something that one country controls. Even if it is just idealistically :)
Yep. The economy is incredibly fragile, because it is so unbalanced. A couple "wrong alignments" and it all comes crashing down. If there is a big upward boom in crypto, I think I will be looking to secure something in the real world, like a little cottage out in the middle of nowhere, with solar arrays and water purifiers :)
Cannot go with a real estate in a low political risk destination. Ukraine real estate would not qualify though :)
This sounds interesting, I'm not sure what you mean.
This was a welcome post today, thank you.
A reflection on what we actually need as an individual in different areas of life. For instance, financially we can probably look at where we are and what are our current expenses on both the "want" and the "need" basis. Then we could also look to where we are trying to be and what we are doing to get there. Perhaps then, we could see that we could get rid of some short-term want expenses and push that into long-term wealth growth instead.
This could be done in other areas too, where we do a bit of a stocktake of what we have now, whether we need it, or if we want to keep it, even if we don't need it - or if we are willing to give it up.
What do we need in our lives, what do we want, and what is just taking up resources for no good reason.
Ah great, thank you.
I think the thing you point out - financial security/wealth vs life - is really important. Although is it really a dichotomy? Perhaps the point you are making :D
Two sides, but one coin :)
🚀
Not quite .25 yet. If it were there my buy order would have filled, but it hasn't yet :) This is one of those cases where people definitely need to remember to zoom out. If you look at the long term pattern of BTC, this dip is really nothing. Even less than insignificant...
Ah, depends where you are buying! When I wrote this it had bounced off .24 on Binance. It later went to .23 - did your buys trigger?
And yep. Definitely a zoom out point for many to realise.
My buy finally did trigger. I am now the proud owner of another 2000 HIVE. I can't access Binance in the US, so those discount prices are off the table for me.
There's always the recency effect, we are all humans and emotional creatures at the end of the day. Haha. Pretty fascinating to see BTC move from 80s to 90s in a day and then back to 80s in another. It's a rollercoaster ride everyday.
Just imagine how some people traded it. And then imagine having that kind of trade in traditional markets. :D
I think most people who trade in traditional markets are not used to this kind of volatility.. Weirdly, after exposure to crypto markets, I realise I can cope a lot of better in the equities market.
Few days ago I already bought a bit Hive. if prices will stay like they are now I hope to buy more in the future. I was planning to buy HBD this year instead but I think that lower Hive prices are too tempting to pass on.
Yeah, it all depends on where the market is at the time If Hive is expected to go up from here, buy that. If it is on the way down, use it to buy HBD.
That's what I have been waiting for. It is time to convert some HBD to HIVE and power up for me now :)
Nice :)
I might do the same with the bit of HBD I have. I buy a little nearly daily with what I get from articles normally anyway.
Do you have a cat?
I remembered you said you don't keep pets because of Smallstep's asthma!Dear my bro @tarazkp !
I always want to talk to you, but it's not easy to understand your wonderful English sentences!😂
No cat. But we will get another dog at some point.
one thing about the market is no matter the lows it always gets back up
Well written post.
Lots to think about here.
I look forward to your next one. Cheers!
It will still high
the future is bright for blockchain
Indeed, building wealth requires patience, Although the current rapid fluctuations illogical. However, I believe that with the increase in users and adoption from institutions, we will face many of these corrections and rapid fluctuations.
I blame (thank) Trump and btc..
did someone call FUD??
Aaahhhhh I think you just identified my "problem" (or perhaps everyone else's problem?! XD). Suddenly a lot of things make a lot more sense :)
We're on the edge of an unimaginable explosion in crypto, with huge amounts of capital soon to be invested into its many iterations. I've been building, growing, and saving as much, as quickly as I can, before that happens. 😁 🙏 💚 ✨ 🤙