I have been thinking (and writing) a lot about time lately, because despite it "not existing" except in nature, it does exist in our consciousness and therefore, impacts on our actions. We are easily manipulated by time, where for instance if there is an artificial clock put on a discount or deal, we are more likely to react, even if we don't actually want what is offered anyway. Our body is also affected by the time it seems, where for instance, my wife has been working a lot, but now that she goes on holiday for a week (schools are off for a week also), she gets sick. This is common, as it seems that the body clock knows when it has to push through, and when it can afford to get sick. However, while the body might see a holiday break as good sick opportunity, they are also the times that events are planned where good health is needed.
But time also influence our activities in other ways that have severe consequences on our future, because we have the ability to kick the can down the road and not deal with future problems we know will arise from our current behaviours. The state of the environment is a good indication of what happens when we ignore the future problem in order to keep profiting from the current activities. We keep cutting down trees, polluting the oceans, and pushing ever increasing amounts of more and more complicated chemicals into the atmosphere and food chain, that are changing humans at the genetic level. There are millions of things going on simultaneously, and there is very little understanding of what consequences the interactions will have on the future.
Yet we keep doing it, because there is money to be made.
In a discussion post yesterday looking at of the current geopolitical situation in the world, @aussieninja gave a list he had seen recently that explained the process of birth and death of the economy. This is something that I have also described many times, but far less eloquently.
I saw a video today which was super interesting... it basically explained that there is a pattern:
- The wealth gap increases ->
- the very rich convert their money into political power to get richer ->
- authoritarian governments rise ->
- there is a war, plague or revolution that wipes out that excessive wealth ->
- the people take back the government and institute policies to help everyone ->
- over time it erodes and the cycle starts again.
Essentially, it is also describes how centralisation always fails, because as they consolidate power of control over the masses, they actually end up becoming less capable of controlling, meaning the decisions made get increasingly bad to the point that they destroy themselves, by the people rising up to destroy them. It is a tale as old as time, but this process is also described through multiple dystopian stories, like the Matrix.
Time plays a major part in this process because with so much future uncertainty and such a high level of spend now mentality, we don't think that much about our actions now on the future. It all becomes someone else's problem, and it might not be one or two generations away, it might be five or six. But when that kicked can arrives, it can be devastating.
I think that we are fast arriving at that can now, where the wealth gap has gone parabolic, as more wealth and therefore control, has been consolidated into fewer and fewer hands. As an indication of "converting wealth to political power", Trump has something like 13 billionaires surrounding him in positions of political (and therefore social) influence. Elon Musk is just the wealthiest of them - but they are all extremely wealthy.
And as we can see from the behaviours of the current US government, it is looking evermore authoritarian, even siding with the obviously authoritarian government of Russia. And that leads us into the next phase of "war, plague or revolution" that wipes out excessive wealth. And while it could be easy to see Ukraine and Gaza as these points, I don't think war is going to be the thing that wipes it out this time, because war has been repositioned in the economy as a monetized industry. In the past, a regime would have to fund the war before going to war, including equipping an army. But now with debt availability and the possibility to globalise access to weaponry, war is a just another wealth generation mechanism, even if not going to war at all, and only selling weapons. Win or lose, the business of war always wins. The war in Ukraine and the drive for NATO nations to re-weaponise, is just another wealth grab, funded by taxpayers, on debt that will impact them for generations to come.
War is good for the military business.
It is also good for social control, because the fear of going to war, being involved with war, being against going to war, being against getting involved and a thousand other opinions, means that people defer to authority in the hope to protect themselves and that which they care about.
Plague is a possibility for the redistribution of wealth, especially since we create diseases we are not able to deal with effectively. Though Covid was a huge money spinner and control lever for those who become even more wealthy and got even more control.
Elon Musk
Mark Zuckerberg
Bernard Arnault & family
Without looking at any actual numbers, do you notice a trend in the wealth of billionaires? 2020 was a good year for the billionaires, and it hasn't really slowed down for any of them, despite their industry. Plague and war is good for many kinds of business at the top end, despite the purchasing power of everyday people going down enormously in the same period. All that inflation pumped into the economy that drive prices up, got transferred into the pockets of the few, so their wealth grew at a high rate and above the inflation rate, while everyone else's fell further behind.
That wealth gap keeps growing.
And that leaves revolution. But this has a problem now, because unlike the past where revolution has a target of a head of state or a royal family, wealth isn't distributed like that any more, putting it out of reach of attack. Not only that, the wealth hasn't been accumulated directly through tax or theft, it has been pushed through economic mechanism and goods and services that the people rely on. So, how exactly does one go about bringing down Google, Microsoft or Tesla?
The revolution can't be a direct attack, it has to be in a change of behaviour. It isn't a guillotine taking off the head, it is death by a thousand cuts that slowly bleed them of the income flow they rely on to maintain their power. A revolution to redistribute wealth, is a change in consumer behaviour.
How likely is that?
In my estimation, not very.
It is far too inconvenient to change our consumer behaviours that enable this small fraction of the global population to have wealth, power, and control over us. We want to be comfortable now, even though it is going to cost us comfort in the future. Which as stated at the top, is an indication of how time influences our behaviours.
And what this means is that the second to last point of "people take back the government and institute policies to help everyone" is unlikely to happen, because we are essentially too lazy and too accustomed to being controlled, that we don't want to take responsibility for ourselves. Sure, people say they want "freedom", but what they really want is a way to get what they want, without having to do anything for it. And what we end up doing is appealing to authority to provide what we want, at the expense to others, or ourselves in the future.
The economy as we operate it is very sick, because it will continually crush down the quality of life for the many to create increasing amounts of wealth for the few. This will keep happening, until something forces a redistribution of wealth, or a revaluation of what it means to be wealthy. For instance, the drive for decentralisation is a way that could lead to a redistribution of wealth and power, but not a redistribution of centralised currencies. If everyone moved to decentralised cryptocurrencies as their trade token, it would effectively defund the majority of the wealth generation mechanisms. The businesses that operate now could still trade, but the capital markets would be heavily disrupted and the ability to accumulate wealth without business activity would change at the core.
Again, unlikely.
So, perhaps where we are headed is into a situation where the power and control at the top is so extreme, that the only way out of it is that decisions will be made that are cataclysmic to not only the economy, but humanity as a whole. For pretty much the first time in history, the power wielded at the top has the ability to create a global extinction event. And at that point,
The illness of time is healed.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
It is funny that a lot of the wealth we're talking about is not actual real wealth. These billionaires don't necessarily own physical assets that are valuable (although Gates buying up a ton of US farmland is worrying) it's all on paper and it would be wiped out in an instant with a stock crash.
I think, from memory, the US stock market has twice the 'value' as the real economy - which is bananas.
The problem is that even though their wealth is mainly on paper, the political equity they buy is real... and it's all in the name to increase the wealth gap because even though they have more than everyone else, it's never enough - and they're happy to burn the world down through authoritarian governments to get more.
Edit: I'm not sure we can count Covid as a proper plague in this instance... plague would normally redistribute wealth, when, like, a third of the population dies. Not to say your points aren't valid... but a proper plague would wipe out poor and rich alike in a significant way, whereas Covid deaths were a low percentage of total population and affected poorer people way more than the middle class and wealthy people.
The beauty of monetary inflation, without any tether to something like gold. We still believe it is valuable, even though it isn't.
The derivitive market is estimated (a lot of it is OTC and invisible) to be worth about 4 times the entire value of every other thing in the world - including all the land, corporations, gold, diamonds...
Exactly. And this impacts on us in reality too. Most of what they do is also useless for our health as a society, and often a detriment.
Yeah, I get this. But it is also a bit different now than in biblical times too. Most of the wealth isn't held by the individual, it is held by companies that have more rights than individuals, like paying less tax. And they don't die.
Oh... that's a really good point, I hadn't thought of companies and trusts and other financial vehicles holding onto wealth even as the owners die - but you're right, that would obviously hamper the redistribution of wealth.
I did not know the derivative market is 4 times the value of all things. You'd have to think that a crash has to be on its way...
Not a very comforting thought is it?
Billionaires are like those whales in crypto. When they see certain indicators, they can dump a portion of their stake, directly impact the market and cause it to correct hard, leaving the plebes wrecked, panicking, and getting wiped out with liquidations. Not only can they scoop it back up for pennies on their protected dollars, they can spur another bull run to pump up the value of their stakes and do it over and over again.
Definitely a sobering and worrying angle to see the economics of war and the opportunity in unrest. French Revolution time!
And yes, that is what they are doing over and over and it seems, their cycles are getting shorter, because their appetites for wealth and power are increasing.
The guillotine would be if everyone moved to decentralised currencies and cut their wealth down to what they held physically.
Ya I think that is rose coloured glasses as those Dinosaurs also write the rules and have the ability purchase a controlling or manipulative stake in crypto too. Doesn’t stop me from stacking though!
I actually think that wealth gap is a big part of the reason the election turned out the way it did. Unfortunately at least right now people are finding out that many of the promises were empty and that it really didn't fix the problems they thought it would. Sadly, there are others who are still holding out hope things will change and they are likely going to be very disappointed when they finally realize nothing is going to change.
I don't think the average person really understands how economies work at even a basic level. They are making decisions in an election on items that they feel something about, without considering how they are going to feel when the bills come in that the people have to pay.
Yeah, I think that is likely very true. I am even prone to that as well. My knowledge of economies is probably just stuff I gathered here on HIVE. Then you have people who vote based on a single issue like abortion or something like that and it leads to ill-informed decisions.
I love the plot!
In US with the current govt. Elon and other billionaires are firmly in control of the politics. They are essentially running the country. Trump is just a puppet and doing monkey stunts, and he is good at that.
For all practical purposed Elon is the president, for now :)
Take what was drained from the swamp, and use it to fill up the government.
Would you have predicted this kind of situation a decade ago?
A very interesting article! It’s made me reflect on how time manipulates us in ways we don’t even notice sometimes. When you talk about how we react to an artificial clock on a discount, even if we don’t want what’s being offered, I feel called out. I’m guilty of that: sometimes I see a countdown deal and feel this urge to act, as if I’m going to miss out on something crucial. I think Keynes was right about how we get swept up in the now, that need to consume in the moment without thinking too much about what comes next. He said that in the long run we’re all dead, and it seems we live as if that’s an excuse not to plan beyond today.
What you mention about your wife getting sick right on vacation feels familiar too. It’s like our bodies know they can let their guard down when there’s a break, but at the same time, as you say, those are the moments when we most need to be well. And then there’s that idea of postponing the big problems, like the environment or inequality. I see myself in that too: I prefer the comfort of my current habits, buying what’s cheap and easy, even though deep down I know I’m contributing to that “can we keep kicking down the road” into the future. Keynes might say it’s human to choose immediate pleasure, but I wonder if we’re not taking this temporal preference too far, to the point where the cost will be paid by others—or worse, by ourselves in a few decades. Your article leaves me thinking: can we break that inertia if we’re so hooked on the now?
Yet at the same time, we say we care about others. It is virtue signalling, isn't it?
Keynes was great for the time, but he never saw the globalised world we have now. Which is why the governments that keep trying to apply Keynesian economics to their local environments, are doing more harm than good.
Totally agree, Keynes "saved the world" from the Great Depression of the 1930s with his theories of aggregate demand, but obviously it was neither sustainable nor the solution to the big challenges of today's economy.
You know, I’ll write an article about Keynes! Your article reminded me of some things. Thanks.
The rich don't care about anything, what matters to them is to be richer. They want to sell weapons and drugs to earn more money. The interesting part is that states also protect and support their rich. Because they need the rich. This system needs to change.
They support the rich, because that is who supports them to get re-elected. Most politicians aren't slumming it, and those that are, are trying to get into a position of wealth and power too.
I think the biggest challenge lies in our awareness as societies of our ability to break this cycle, not by waiting for a revolutionary event but through gradual changes in the way we consume and deal with the economy and politics.
The gradual change means we would have to change our consumption habits, but we seem to more and more double-down on maintaining the current power structures.
Late stage capitalism at its finest...
I think that pandemic and the subsequent economic policies were created for wealth transfer in the world.
I agree. Whether created or not, that is what it quickly became as governments and corporations capitalised on the situation to our detriment.
I legitimately think that Trump being in charge in the US in 2020 and the complete fraud that was the PPP loans were a huge driver in this wealth transfer... we had a situation around the world where workers were quitting and rethinking their decisions - workers had so much more power than usual and corporations were desperately hiring; causing wages to go up and a lot of workers saving through remote work....
... but the PPP loans were massively abused by companies that didn't need them, and were entirely forgiven which meant so many companies invested in stock buybacks and asset prices went crazy in 2021.
We can never really know, but I do think the wealth gap could have significantly decreased at that time if someone else had been in charge.
Very possible. But it is like an arms race - it happened globally. And due to globalised banking, the same companies and large shareholders are invested everywhere simultaneously. It doesn't matter which country.
It really serves to highlight how bad policy in the US can affect the rest of the world.
Well wishes to u and ur wife.. ☺️🙏
oh man.. more control?! uh.. another covid.. :(
(i actually didn't mind covid at all.. I stay home 95% of the time anyways)
I don't see people in US or any other country suddenly getting smart and changing their behavior to cause death by a thousand cuts to the companies or billionaires controlling their government.
Before the last election in US there were great documentary movies about the candidates and mountains of evidence against Trump and it didn't do anything.
People still thought he is like them and understands them and will help them...
I find this the most infuriating. I've already accepted defeat when it comes to my air quality here in Bushwick, Brooklyn. But I do my very best to ensure an organic food supply from reputable brands or local farmers. These are the pollutants I am most worried about.
This is the worst time line. War can no longer be used as a means of redistribution of power. Instead it just consolidates more power in the hands of the arm dealers and business conglomerates. War will be the tool that elites use to control the population as they set countries to destroy each other. We really should be waging a war on wealth disparity.
This is another uncomfortable truth. I would happily relinquish freedom for ease of life. I've already made some of these sacrifices based on living in a big city and working in the public institution of education. I rely on the state to pay my bills, wholly unable to support myself from the land or my skills alone. Troubling times to consider what I would be able to accomplish on my own if forced to survive without my two monthly paychecks.