I have no data but my first thought would be that Web 2.0 is subject to business cycles because ad revenue depends on them. Why would the crypto space be exempt from that if most cryptocurrencies end up currency used in business activities?
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What kind of business activities do you see cryptocurrency being used for?
What happens when people are paid for their walking they do? Or the posting that takes place online? Or their appliances interesting with other devices? Or gaming that people partake in on a daily basis?
Are any of these apt to go through business cycles? And none depend, at least solely, on advertising.
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Any business fiat is used for today.
That will be akin to UBI.
Some. The walking and posting parts not so much.
That depends on who or what entity buys the tokens giving them value. I don't think it's going to be the government because they will most likely issue their own tokens. The tokens might be given value to by companies buying them to reward consumers for activities in a cashback type of set up like loyalty points. Speculators like now? That depends on the rate at which central banks keep debasing the currency. If it gets even crazier than now the value of the tokens could be substantial but that would still make it a government sponsored situation like now. Central banks have no choice but to pump insane amounts of QE money into the system to keep it from crashing. This is why major corporations have begun to buy crypto. This is the way some of that money trickles through the legacy market into crypto. The crypto space is still so small that QE has a drastic impact on valuations in crypto. When the total market cap is 100-1000 times larger that impact will be less.
It might be although nothing about it will be universal since it will not be the same for everyone since people will be choosing what they are involved in.
Ultimately, the value of crypto, in my view, will come down to the activity provided by the users. Governments and corporations will do their thing but it will be small in comparison. Look at the activity on Facebook, it is pretty much recession-proof. Take that same idea and spread it across many activities that people do daily or where they provide data. Plus, with technology, we will have smart everything which will generate data on an ongoing basis that is needed by researchers and such.
In a world where more is being automated, the only question is who owns it. Right now, it is in the hands of a few. Yet over the next two decades, I expect that will reverse course.
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