I'm delighted to see you mention the correlation between the US presidential election and Bitcoin performance with your TA. Yes, the 4 year cycle is important and we are only 5 months from the last halving but I truly believe the US election influenced Bitcoin movements in both the 2016 and 2020 US elections.
Let's be honest so much has been going on since 2016 when US presidential elections have become bigger news than normal. In one of my previous posts I extensively evaluated Bitcoin movements and the US election cycles of 2016 and 2020, what I discovered is that they were almost mirrors of each other in terms of pattern but obviously not price.
In the month directly preceding both 2016 and 2020 elections Bitcoin starts to climb. As we move closer to election day BTC climbs even further. Then once the election is over BTC continues its vertical move. Within a few months we are in a full blown bull market. The only difference is the 2017 bull happened later than when the 2021 occurred.
I truly believe this is not a coincidence and that given the power and influence of the US economy on other economies throughout the world Bitcoin is happier when there is no political uncertainty in the only superpower remaining in the world. China still has some way to go!
However, it must be noted that we are not witnessing the exact parallels in this current election with Bitcoin price as we did in 2016 and 2020. But there is still a related pattern. This time BTC is getting more and more buoyant, I have been discussing this on chain for weeks now. Bitcoin's recent performance is encouraging, especially yesterday's. There is an energy about and it is gearing up.
The confidence and vertical price movement we are seeing in Bitcoin is encouraging for sure but it doesn't reflect the type of climb we were witnessing from BTC back in the 2016 and 2020 US election cycles. But of course it doesn't matter.
Bitcoin is clearly gaining confidence and there is a distinct whiff of bullishness about it, although we're not there yet. So far it has sustained above the $70k mark since yesterday, again another encouraging indicator. I would imagine Bitcoin is waiting for the political turmoil in America to be concluded and the new US president decided.
I think there are a lot of factors that feed into the crypto cycle. The halving is a big one, but there are too many to mention. I didn't put much weight on the US elections in previous cycles but this time its fairly clear that risk assets are getting pumped across the board (not just crypto). It's just that crypto is much more volatile / sensitive to sentiment so the RISK ON attitude Mr Market is taking is really giving us a good boost in crypto.