With about twelve games left to finish the regular round of the 2021 MLB season, the fight for the home run lead in the American League between Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Salvador Perez and Shohei Ohtani is on fire, since all 3 have slipped in the power rankings and only 2 hits separate the first and third classified in that line. However, right now it seems to me that the champion will be between Vladi and Salvador since in the last 6 games played, Ohtani has not hit the ball out of the park, while Perez has done it three times and Vladimir only 1 time. But let's review the numbers of each one.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Actualmente tiene 554 turnos, batea 321 (líder), 46 jonrones (líder) y 105 empujadas (4to), para un promedio de 1 jonrón cada 12,04 turnos o cada 3 juegos, lo cual quiere decir que estadísticamente puede conectar como mínimo 4 jonrones más de acá al final de la campaña, con lo cual finalizaría con 50 bambinazos, lógicamente si mantiene el ritmo mostrado hasta ahora. fuente
He currently has 554 at-bats, 321 (leader), 46 home runs (leader) and 105 runs batted in (4th), for an average of 1 home run every 12.04 at-bats or every 3 games, which means that statistically he can hit at least 4 more home runs between now and the end of the season, which would finish with 50 home runs, logically if he maintains the rhythm he has shown up to now. fuente
Un punto a su favor pudiera ser el hecho de que juega en un equipo muy bateador como Toronto, lo cual le pudiera otorgar unos 3 o 4 turnos adicionales con respecto a sus más cercanos rivales para inclinar un poco más la balanza a su favor.
Otro factor interesante es el hecho de contar con un bate productivo y muy peligroso como Teoscar Hernández bateando detrás de él, lo cual le posibilita ver buenos picheos.
Factors in his favor.
1) A point in his favor could be the fact that he plays in a very hitter team like Toronto, which could give him 3 or 4 extra innings with respect to his closest rivals to tilt the balance a little more in his favor.
2) Another interesting factor is the fact that he has a productive and very dangerous bat like Teoscar Hernandez batting behind him, which allows him to see good pitching.
Factores en contra
Vladimir tiene un factor de peso que juega en su contra, ya que actualmente está luchando por la triple corona de bateo y eso le pudiera generar más ansiedad de lo normal ya que debe preocuparse no sólo por los jonrones, sino también por hacer contacto en procura de generar la mayor cantidad de imparables para mantener o mejorar su promedio y ya sabemos que muchas veces procurar hacer contacto implica sacrificar poder.
Factors against him
Vladimir has a weight factor that plays against him, since he is currently fighting for the batting triple crown and that could generate more anxiety than normal since he must worry not only about home runs, but also about making contact in order to generate as many hits as possible to maintain or improve his average and we already know that many times making contact implies sacrificing power.
Salvador Pérez.
Tiene 578 turnos al bate para un average de .275 con 46 jonrones y 115 empujadas con un promedio de 1 jonrón cada 12.5 turnos al bate, lo cual es ligeramente superior al de Vladimir, pero que a la hora de los promedios pesa mucho. Proyecta un total de 49 jonrones. Fuente
He has 578 at-bats for a .275 average with 46 home runs and 115 runs batted in, averaging 1 home run every 12.5 at-bats, which is slightly higher than Vladimir's, but weighs heavily when it comes to averages. He projects a total of 49 home runs. Fuente
Factores a su favor.
1)Está encendido y con muy buena racha de bateo, lo cual le otorga mayor confianza a la hora hacer swing y ahora mismo me parece que tiene la sartén por el mango para derrotar a Guerrero Jr.
2)El hecho de jugar en un equipo sin oportunidad de meterse en la postemporada le quita presión, por lo que en cada uno de sus turnos pudiera estar buscando conexiones de 4 esquinas sin ningún problema y sin reprocharse nada.
Factors in his favor.
1)He is on fire and with a very good batting streak, which gives him more confidence when swinging and right now I think he has the power to beat Guerrero Jr.
2) The fact of playing in a team with no chance to get into the postseason takes pressure off him, so in each of his shifts he could be looking for 4-corner connections without any problem and without reproach.
Factores en contra.
Lo más resaltante sería que no tiene un bateador de calibre que lo proteja, por lo que pudiera estar recibiendo muchas bases por bolas en lo que resta de campaña, lo cual sería un hándicap para pelear el título del poder.
Factors against him.
The most outstanding would be that he does not have a caliber hitter to protect him, so he could be receiving a lot of bases on balls in the rest of the season, which would be a handicap to fight for the power title.
Shohei Ohtani
El tercer gran candidato a llevarse el trofeo de jonronero y ahora mismo uno de los favoritos para el MVP, ha tomado 498 turnos para un average de 257 con 44 jonrones, 94 empujadas y promedio de 1 jonrón cada 11.3 turnos al bate, proyectando un total de 48 jonrones. Fuente
The third leading candidate to win the home run trophy and right now one of the favorites for the MVP, has taken 498 innings for an average of 257 with 44 home runs, 94 runs batted in and averages 1 home run every 11.3 at-bats, projecting a total of 48 home runs. Fuente
Aún cuando de los 3 rivales es el que necesita menos turnos para sacar la bola del parque, es innegable que en el mes de Septiembre, Ohtani ha perdido terreno en la carrera por el liderato de cuadrangulares y ha cedido la vanguardia primero a Salvador y luego a Vladimir y obviamente ya no depende de sí mismo para retomar el liderato.
Even though of the 3 rivals he is the one who needs the fewest turns to knock the ball out of the park, it is undeniable that in the month of September, Ohtani has lost ground in the race for the home run lead and has ceded the lead first to Salvador and then to Vladimir and obviously no longer depends on himself to retake the lead.
Factores a su favor.
1)A su favor pudiera ser el promedio de jonrones por turno, ya que en ese apartado necesita un turno menos que sus rivales para sacarla y ese es un factor importante con 12 juegos por delante.
2)Lo otro sería el hecho de que su equipo ya está matemáticamente fuera de postemporada y eso le libera para hacer swing grande en busca del jonrón, algo similar a Salvador.
Factors in his favor
1)In his favor could be the average of home runs per inning, since in that section he needs one inning less than his rivals to get it out and that is an important factor with 12 games ahead.
2)The other thing would be the fact that his team is already mathematically out of the postseason and that frees him to swing big in search of the home run, something similar to Salvador.
Factores en contra.
El hecho de ser pitcher y bateador puede jugar en su contra puesto que el hecho de estar lanzando en un partido le puede restar uno que otro turno al bate a fin de darle descanso.
Factors against him.
The fact that he is a pitcher and hitter may work against him, since the fact that he is pitching in a game may subtract one or two at-bats in order to give him rest.
Si nos atenemos a los fríos números y basándonos en las proyecciones de cada uno, podemos dejar entrever que cada pelotero pudiera conectar 4 jonrones más, lo cual dejaría el título en manos de Vladimir porque ahora mismo tiene menos turnos que el venezolano. No obstante, las cifras mostradas no dejan de ser probabilidades, lo cual quiere decir que no son tácitas y que la tortilla se puede voltear para cualquiera de los 3, siempre y cuando uno de ellos se meta en una buena racha y los otros se apaguen. Ahora mismo el más encendido de los 4 es sin duda Salvador Pérez quien está dispuesto a dar pelea para llevarse el título del poder en la liga americana a lo cual adicionaría el liderato de empujadas en el cual cada también mantiene una cerrada lucha por ese liderato.
If we stick to the cold numbers and based on the projections of each one of them, we can guess that each player could hit 4 more home runs, which would leave the title in Vladimir's hands because right now he has less innings than the Venezuelan. However, the figures shown are still probabilities, which means that they are not tacit and that the tortilla can turn around for any of the 3, as long as one of them gets on a good streak and the others turn off. Right now the most on fire of the 4 is undoubtedly Salvador Perez who is willing to fight to take the title of power in the American League to which he would add the lead in pushes in which each also maintains a close fight for that leadership.
A fin de ilustrar un poco lo anterior, a continuación les dejo la tabla con los líderes de dicho renglón.
In order to illustrate the above, the following table shows the leaders in this category.
Todos los párrafos son de mi propiedad, excepto los numeritos que me han servido de apoyo para el desarrollo de los mismos.
Mi lenguaje nativo es el españo y la traducción la realicé a través del traductor DeepL en su versión libre.
Gracias por leer mi post.
Un abrazo
All paragraphs are my own, except for the numbers that I have used as support for the development of the same.
My native language is Spanish and the translation was made through the translator DeepL in its free version.
Thanks for reading my post.
Best regards.
macolina69
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