25/04/2021১১ই বৈশাখ ১৪২৮
𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝖂𝖊𝖊𝖐𝖑𝖞 𝕿𝖚𝖗𝖓𝖎
Catch a Falling Knife
Few days back, crypto market took at sudden dip and there was panic in the beginning. Many members at BDC have turned into traders over the last 6-8 months. Not just any traders, but opportunist traders. Any major dips in the markets were taken as a buying opportunity and many people did the right thing, and that is staying solvent and have cash on hand. One of the most difficult things every trader has to face is to deal with this:
“the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” … John Maynard Keynes
For those who do not know who Keynes is, probably heard about the term Keynesian economics, which is currently the doctrine most major central banks follows. It is a macroeconomic policy that has radically changed how governments reacts to any kind of economic crisis or recession. It is a departure from classical ‘free market’ thinking that, in short or medium term, a free market will automatically provide full employment. Now in modern times, we know that is not the case. So, the central banks must have a monetary policy to control both the bubble and the recession. They typically cut the money flow when they see a bubble and flood the market with free money (stimulus) when there is a recession or crisis. This is considered a safety mechanism.
This theory is not just written for/in books and no reason to think that this is no big and doesn’t apply to personal finances, because right now on hive, I can show you that it does. Just like many other crypto, hive is volatile. Since we are here all the time and transactions are feeless, we always have a use for hive both inside and outside of the ecosystem. Typically, when prices rally, people tend to sell towards the high or at least into the rally. Also, they tend to buy then the prices are low. However, trouble is:
1. How low is low, and how high is high?
2. Also let’s assume that someone sold at the high, and now waiting with cash (stable coin) to buy at the low; when does the buy program starts?
3. If you buy all at once at any given price, the price can move below your buy price
4. If you buy in batches, price can go below your last batch of buy
So, there is the fact, you might think market is irrational and should bounce, but market doesn’t listen to you and can continue to go down. So, Keynes was correct after all! Also, Keynesian economics can be application to our little personal finances.
Therefore, it is always recommended to keep some cash (stable coin) at hand. Never go completely out. It is not an easy thing to do in real life, but we should all try and practice it. If you struggle with it, you can set up a wallet that is not easy to open and keep it away from common use. You can do several layers of this and hopefully, you never have to go to the last layer.
Catching a falling knife means buying something as the price is dropping. If is usually not recommended, but people do it all the time. I personally do not have any problems with it. As long as you have lots of bandages available! 😊
Denial
Throughout our life, we get reality checked by a number of events that in nature are out of our control. The ongoing pandemic and the causality of it is a testament to that statement. That is because we often take the peaceful conflict free lives of ours for granted. And so, often, or to be more accurate most of the time, we are completely underprepared for the mishaps that befall us. May that be a simple sickness or a life changing event. But a fascinating thing to consider is that most of us almost always think we are above and beyond such adversities.
At times we even fantasize about how if we were to get entangled in such events, we would do this, that and voila, we have solved the global food crisis and vice versa. For example, I am certain that most of us who have watched movies about zombie apocalypse or a dystopian future, have imagined ourselves in the shoes of the protagonist and imagined how we would have approached those situations and what we would have done differently. We find cheap grandeur in doing so. But, what we fail to see is that those characters, heroes and saviours are protected by plot armor. And so when troubles actually start hitting us, we are in complete awe!
For example, only a few weeks back, right before the lockdown I had a lengthy discussion with a local shop owner. He was saying that the imminent lockdown due to the second wave of covid is a sham and it's actually hurting small time, financially not that solvent business owners like him. In his opinion, it's better to keep the shops, malls and markets open. As it is the time of Ramadan and Eid, now is when they make most out of their businesses. Well, his logic is firm and solid. It's natural to fear hunger over a low probability of catching a highly contagious virus. But, what he failed to see is that even if he profited double what he usually makes, in a country like Bangladesh where public health services don't work , where one has to depend on very expensive private hospitals and clinics, if he gets infected, the opportunity cost would be too illogical and massively one sided. A few days ago he and his father tested positive for covid and the father as he is very old is having a tough time. Even though he was vaccinated, it failed to develop immunity against the newest triple mutated strain. Now, I am not someone who likes to see others in dismay and says “told you so” just to prove a point, but the point was proven nonetheless.
Les sièges de l'Alcazar (1989)
I usually don't write short reviews, because, for one, I like to talk, and, two, I feel like the audience is being cheated. But I will make an exception today, since the film I want to shed some light on, will only attract only a few.
The protagonist of this film is a film critic of the famous film magazine Cahiers Du Cinema. He's an eccentric fellow and everyday he sits with the children at the cinema theater so he can be at front, the best viewing experience in his notion. He sits there, brings up his notebook and writes down criticism while viewing the film—in real time!
One day, he suspects that a woman is spying on him. A film critic who belongs to a rival film magazine, Positif. An unlikely love-hate relationship is about to be knocking on the door.
That's the story. The director of the film is one of the minors of French New Wave and some of the remarks from the film might sting even beyond their humor. You can't retaliate, also can't laught it off! For instance — one of them says, filmmaker antonioni stole everything from Cottafavi. What nonsense! Haha!
Even though this is a meta film, and essentially a bait for cinephiles, I think people from the mass might like it as well.
Source
সেতু
আমি তখন কেবল কলেজের গণ্ডি পেরিয়ে বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ের চৌকাঠে পা রেখেছি। একাধারে সম্মান শ্রেণীর এবং পারিবারিক সম্মান রক্ষার্থে আমি তখন নিরস রসায়নের রস সংগ্রহে ব্যস্ত। বরাবরই আমার সাহিত্যের দিকে ঝোঁক ছিল কিন্তু মাধ্যমিক এবং উচ্চ মাধ্যমিকে পদার্থ, রসায়ন এবং উচ্চতর গণিত পড়ুয়া ছেলে বাংলা বা ইংরেজী সাহিত্যে পড়ে মাস্টারমশাই এবং বংশের গোষ্ঠী উদ্ধার করবে তা তো আর হতে দেয়া যায় না; তাই অগত্যা রসায়নের ঘাড়েই ভূত হয়ে চেপে বসলাম।
এই প্রথম মায়ের আঁচল, বন্ধুদের বৃত্ত এবং গ্রামের মায়া ছেড়ে বের হতে বেশ কষ্ট হচ্ছিল। তবে শহরের নিয়ন আলো, গোল্ডলিফের নেশা এবং রবি ঠাকুরের লাবণ্য ও কেতকী দের ভিড়ে সেই কষ্ট ভুলতে খুব বেশি সময় লাগেনি। নাগরিক কৃত্রিম চাকচিক্য, কার্বন মনো অক্সাইড মিশ্রিত দূষিত বাতাস, হঠাৎ করে পাওয়া অবাধ স্বাধীনতা ক্রমেই ফেলে আসা স্মৃতিকে ছাপিয়ে উঠতে সমর্থ হয়েছিল।
অবাধ স্বাধীনতা যে মাঝে মাঝে পরাধীনতার কারণ হতে পারে তা আমি বেশ বুঝতে পারলাম যখন এই গতিশীল নাগরিক সভ্যতার সাথে তাল মিলাতে গিয়ে দেখলাম পকেটটা বেশ ফাঁকা। অগত্যা ছাত্রদের ক্ষেত্রে টাকার যোগান পাওয়ার যেটি সহজ পন্থা সেটা করতে উদ্যত হলাম অর্থাৎ একটা টিউশনি খুঁজে বের করলাম।
আমি ক্লাস সেভেনের যে ছেলেটিকে পড়াতাম তাদের বাড়ি ধানমন্ডির শংকর এলাকায়। বিশাল জায়গা জুড়ে একটি দ্বিতল ভবন যাতে কিনা কম করে হলেও ১০ টি কক্ষ রয়েছে। বাড়িতে আমার ছাত্র, তার বাবা, মা, দাদি এবং কেয়ারটেকারসহ মোট ৬ জনের বসবাস। আমি যখন পড়াতে যেতাম তখন প্রায় প্রতিদিনই দেখতাম ছেলেটির বাবা ড্রইংরুমে বসে বিশাল টিভি স্ক্রিনে হয় ক্রিকেট খেলা অথবা সিএনএনের নিউজ দেখছে।
পাশের ঘরে ওর মা হিন্দি সিরিয়াল দেখতে ব্যস্ত এবং ওর দাদী বারান্দায় বসে একাধিকবার পড়া হয়ে যাওয়া খবরের কাগজটি আবার নতুন করে পড়ছে। সদ্য প্রয়াত কবি শঙ্খ ঘোষ এর নিচের লাইনগুলোই আমাকে বহুদিনের পুরনো এই ঘটনাটি আবার স্মরণ করিয়ে দিল।
তাকাও না আর চোখের দিকে, আমিও চাই না ।
না-তাকাবার অজুহাত তো আছেও হাজার হাজার ।
একটা কথাই ঘুরতে থাকে অন্দরে-কন্দরে
তোমার আমার মধ্যে এখন সেতু কেবল বাজার ।
আজ ওদের চারিদিকে অবাধ স্বাধীনতা, তার পরেও কোথায় যেন ওরা পরাধীন। নিজেকে নিয়ে সবাই এতটাই ব্যস্ত যে একে অপরকে সময় দেওয়ার কিংবা চোখে চোখ রাখবার মতো সময়টুকু পর্যন্ত কারও নেই। হয়তো রাতের একটি নির্দিষ্ট প্রহরে প্রাকৃতিক নিয়মে কিংবা শারীরিক চাহিদার কারণে ক্রোমোজোমের আদান-প্রদান হচ্ছে ঠিকই কিন্তু মনের দূরত্ব বাড়ছে যোজন যোজন।
তাই আজ এই পরস্পরের মধ্যকার ক্রমাগত ক্ষয় হয়ে যাওয়া সেতুর মেরামত করা খুব জরুরি হয়ে পড়েছে। কিন্তু দুঃখের ব্যাপার হলো এই সেতু তৈরির কারিগর গুলি ক্রমশই আমাদের ছেড়ে চলে যাচ্ছে অজানার দেশে, যেমনটি চলে গেলেন শঙ্খ ঘোষ। কিন্তু তারা চলে গেলেও তাদের লেখা এবং আশার বাণী গুলো বেঁচে থাকবে আজীবন; যেগুলো পড়ে মানুষ একে অপরকে কাছে টানবে এবং ঘুচাবে মনের দূরত্ব।
এইজন্যেই আমরা বলি যে কীর্তিমানের মৃত্যু নাই, তারা কখনোই মরতে পারে না, যেমনটি শঙ্খ ঘোষ বেঁচে থাকবেন প্রজন্ম থেকে প্রজন্ম এর মধ্যে সেতুবন্ধন হয়ে।
Fallacious
Flawless - there’s a reason why this word exists. Although now a lot of debate circles around the meaning and subtext within it, and some might even go to the extent of changing the very definition of it. The perfection, the flawlessness seems somewhat soulless; I wonder if that’s the reason people feel so different about it. Some hail it and some disregard it, but the word still endures all that paradox. As if flawless, being flawed, or however mean, will always survive. It can get muddied by conjectures, but it will sustain.
Worry was setting in on her. She was twisting her fingers, trying to distract herself from what was about to happen. Her heart beating like a drum so loud that she can hear it. She was thinking of something else; anything else, the dinner with her friends the next day, the dress she will pick, the accessories. It was futile; trail of thoughts went back to the competition. Discontent with her preparation, she felt frustrated, even though she practiced day and night. She doesn’t believe she gave it her best effort. Kept mumbling the song she was about to sing in presence of the audience. This is the first time she’ll be appearing on stage. The stage has been a lifelong dream and a nightmare, mostly because she perceive herself as an average. An average is flawed and imperfect; she longed to be impeccable like her idol. What if she forgets the lyrics? Fear of losing was becoming monumental, she’ll be a laughingstock if she made a mistake. All her thoughts came back to what she was facing at the time. She knows her competition, and that only caused her to be more nervous and couldn’t sit down anymore; she started walking. Standing in front of the mirror, the questions echoed in her mind. Tugging her hair behind her ears, she took a deep breath, and then another. It’s too late to back out at the moment. “Why am I not perfect?” She thought. She forgot to question what is perfect.
Flawless isn’t achievable, it’s impossible; but that is half the truth. We have our own set of notions about transcendence and imperfection. A garden full of beautiful flowers and trees at its pristine condition may appear as divine to some and hollow to others. As humans, we are adapted to having assumptions; we accept some opinions that are suitable to our liking and we detect loopholes in others. Perfection is impractical because we ourselves are complex beings will consistently find a flaw even in the most proper of settings. We made it unachievable, and flawless became a random word in the dictionary, repeatedly used but seldom understood. Even the most immaculate structures may be perceived as hollow, and a broken down palazzo may look majestic with debris falling off of them.
What’s attainable is excellence, and it often requires millions of mistakes to reach that highest peak; we often call it perfection, but excellence or greatness is not even anywhere close to becoming perfect. The pursuit of perfection is a lost cause, and people often lose their individuality while chasing a myth. We ourselves are flawed beings and our flaws make us unique; our flawed nature will only appear flawless through our own acceptance and care. She doesn’t have the same voice, no one’s voice is similar. Expecting to sound like the original singer is unrealistic; she’ll lose her uniqueness in the process. All she can do is sing her heart out, give it her own flare and own the stage like this is where she belongs. So, even though she will not sound exactly how the song was supposed to, it will be her own way of singing and that will be her impeccable performance. Her originality will make her memorable. If we all were perfect, then all our beliefs will be the same, there won’t be room for contradictions or conflicts. Isn’t that unnatural?
Dispute
Misunderstanding! One of the most deadly things which cause us huge damages. A few months ago I shared an experience of an organization that works with books in our city. The founder of the organization stays abroad and he has some volunteers who manage everything. I was one of those volunteers but I couldn’t give proper time but I am always connected with them. It is a nice platform that lends books for free for reading to book lovers. So this is a great place for the students who can't afford to buy huge numbers of books.
Managing this kind of organization is pretty hard. Sometimes there needs to be some strict rules and regulations to maintain everything properly. Recently a dispute came among the core team over a tiny issue that became public. People are very hard to digest insults or punishments publicly which created mass chaos in the core team and the team is being divided and leaving the organization. There was a member who had taken 30 books and kept them for more than 90 days without proper explanation and that's against the rules. So it was declared by the founder that the membership of that person will be canceled and instructed not to receive those books from that member in the future. One of the volunteers received the books avoiding the instruction of the founder which started the dispute and it ended up in the fall of the organization. He was melted by the requests of that member and avoided that instruction. Actually, he didn't expect that the situation would worsen. Nobody knows the future of the organization currently.
Some things could be sorted out if discussed with patience. When one side is heated up then the other side should cool down and handle the situation, find out the problem, and solve it calmly. These kinda things we do face in our personal life too. We all encounter this thing "misunderstanding" many times and make things worse.
𝕰𝖓𝖉 𝕹𝖔𝖙𝖊𝖘
Well written truth is, when it comes to Crypto at I use to say we can't be 100% wrong or right. Sometimes we tend to be permutative or predictive as a result of charts and patterns but then our expectations can be cut short. We don't really know the bottom and we don't know the highs, we just well or buy when we perceive or deem it to be correct. In the long run it boils down on luck rather than our ability to make the right decision.
To my opinion, crypto trading is the combination of luck and experience. Charts are good but not workable always.
I consider myself as an inept person in the field of crypto trading. There are much brainstorming happening in our native BDC community discord about crypto trading where Dada, Reazul bro and Sakib bro giving some valuable input but maximum things goes above my head. But, so far I could understand and Reazul Bhai agreed with me that crypto trading is the combination of luck and experience. Many of the times it doesn’t follow the prescribed charts. We don’t actually know where is the bottom or up. So, better not to get panicked. The most important thing what I realised from today’s editorial is to keep some safe amount in hand which might support you in bear market. Because we don’t actually know how long this bull will be continued 😉
True, I am also realizing this same thing. And the thing about panic is what leads me to some wrong steps. Now learning to cope with that. Today's editorial was really helpful for us to pay attention to some important things.
Denial
Sometimes I wonder how prepared one can be for adversities. Life always has a way of surprising us. Things never follow the script.
I have been thinking recently about stashing some money--emergency funds. Just in case the security issue in mY country worsens and I have to migrate my entire family.
I am always thinking about the possibilities of things going wrong but I cannot prepare for them all. This is why most people handle things of this nature by denying or being indifferent about them.
I agree with this. I often hear people say buy the dip. But what happens when it keeps diping and you keep buying. Eventually you will become illiquid and the only other option will be to sell which may inevitable result in loss of some kind.
Denial
What we sometimes fail to understand is we can never truly prepare for what reality will throw at us. We will always be thrown off guard before we regain composure and sometimes we are still not able to appropriately handle the situation
Dispute
Like you rightly stated there are more constructive ways to resolve disputes but sometimes people like to take the high way first.
oh wow after a decade our head clerk finally wrote something... we're so blessed
Good Suggestions for crypto trading.
Yes, these are definitely great suggestions as long as we can follow. But as the editor mentioned, it is something difficult to follow always and we do the mistakes. Have a nice day.
Really true fact! How low is the low and how high will be the high not known! Keeping some cash for the unavoidable time is always wise!
Nice job done.
Nice to see you in Turni-
Yes, that’s an important point. If you put everything, there is a possibility to gain. Similarly, you might loose everything as it is the word of volatile crypto market.
Catch a Falling Knife
Although I do not like playing the market this is valid. I always advise people to have a safety net, a fund you could also use when the market goes below your expectation and that for me would be a 50-60% dip.
Yeah, that's a good strategy. I should follow this too.
The editorial was helpful as usual. Need to change my strategy! Some things are not working out as per my current way.
Well written everyone. Another amazing piece from our beloved Turni.
It was my mistake this time that I didn't have some cash in hand, I was take entry at high price with all of them. That is why when the whole market get crashed I regretted that if I had some Usdt I could buy. But the lesson is that, I will keep some cash in hand from next time. And I have to change my thinking that the market will always be the same. Though I'm just starting to get used to it. I hope I can learn from you guys gradually.
For sure, BD community has helped many a member become an expert in trading, and also the advice and help are above the ordinary. I loved reading all entries.
I think crypto has established its ground as a goldmine which might not be displaced in generations.
এইজন্যেই আমরা বলি যে কীর্তিমানের মৃত্যু নাই, তারা কখনোই মরতে পারে না, যেমনটি শঙ্খ ঘোষ বেঁচে থাকবেন প্রজন্ম থেকে প্রজন্ম এর মধ্যে সেতুবন্ধন হয়ে।
এই অংশ টুকু হৃদয় ছুঁয়ে দিলো। অসাধারণ লেখনী।