I hope you can get through this in one piece. I hope I can too, for that matter. This is an apocalyptic scenario, perhaps not in the literal sense like you'd see in a movie, more in the sense this should be a turning point in history. Not necessarily a good one either. I'm currently attempting to methodically stay in a state of overreaction one step ahead of the government narrative, so that I can perhaps attempt to mentally prepare for what's coming.
I'm worried about the virus itself, of course. The UK government seems to think 20,000 dead is an optimistic scenario, having read the reports they're basing these figures off I got the impression double that number would be a more realistic "optimistic" scenario. A bad scenario doesn't bear thinking about. They're also deliberately downplaying the fact this could go on for 18 months.
Truthfully it's nations which are mainstays in the global economy I'm most anxious about, specifically the US and India. I have my doubts about the USA and its ability to cope with this kind of challenge, whereas India has a very serious logistical concern on its hands.
I'm not able to swallow the narrative that this will be a "sharp, but short-lived economic shock". The reality is the financial aspect of this crisis has been looming for years, it's just that no one (including myself) expected a genuinely calamitous event like the coronavirus as the trigger for the inevitable crash. The problem is that modern financial markets are anemic and have a tendency to bleed profusely in times of abject panic.
I think we're potentially looking at a mild to moderate economic depression, rather than a recession. There are no brakes on the train and the only thing world governments can do to slow it down is to reinstate quantitative easing in the blind hope the ride stops before plunging off a cliff. Obviously opportunistic and unchecked capitalism is to blame for this. The cracks from the 2008 financial crisis were merely papered over and the money from the bailout was essentially robbed instead of being used to address the underlying issues.
I wish I knew what's going to happen next. This has the potential to lead just about anywhere, perhaps even damaging the seemingly permanent global hegemony of the USA (and all the chaotic implications which follow). Alternatively, there may be a painful and labored return to the status quo, where the game is more and more obviously rigged in favor those with their hands on the money printing machine. It's legitimately scary, I'm increasingly growing more concerned for those suffering from potentially fatal symptoms of the financial virus rather than those with the actual virus.
The silver lining is that reorganizing into a more collectivist and egalitarian society seems like a no brainer at this point. I'll only believe it when I see it though. The only alternative is regressing to a form of capitalism which uncomfortably resembles neo-feudalism.
(There's your blog post for this year. Hope you enjoyed it!!!!!!)