My husband is a poker player and familiar with gambling culture. He tells me about the bets people place--how much weight someone will lose by a certain date, for example. That's real money too. And just as reliable as the polymarket (which I don't understand at all).
As of today, nobody knows anything.
Polymarket is exactly as he describes poker bets. A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all that expires at a given time. Polymarket is effectively a betting platform where you can bet on anything and everything. People there are traders or wannabes. They are just trying to make money.