The probability of Apophis' impact with the earth is not zero, but it is a very remote or small probability, but can we breathe easy? The point is that there is a problem, because it turns out that we now know that Apophis will have 2026 a very close encounter with another asteroid called 4544 Xantus, this one is not small, this one is one of the big ones, it is 1,300 kilometers in diameter.
Apophis will pass less than 10,000 km from of fragments, but astronomers calculate that this cannot happen, since their closest point, the point where these two asteroids will be closest, will occur 4 hours apart.
The problem is that 4544 for a while until those remains fall back to the asteroid, it is like Dimorphs orbiting Didimos which is much smaller than Xantus.
Xantus has almost twice the diameter of Didymos, so Xantus exerts some gravity on its surroundings and therefore could have fragments orbiting it that, if they hit Apophis, could modify the trajectory of Apophis; I know there are many “coulds”, but it is an event that, although it is difficult to happen, we cannot completely rule out, the worst thing is that we will have to wait until the year 2027 to find out if Apophis has deviated from its course or not, as it is currently outside our ability to see due to its visual proximity to the sun.
When it reappears, astronomers will be able to better calculate the trajectory of Apophis, know if that distance of 38,000 km is maintained by April 13, 2029 or if it increases because a change in trajectory can also be for the better and move Apophis away from the earth or if It is for the worse and we have to refuel the rockets to go out and intercept it, we will be aware of Apophis and any other threat from the Cosmos.
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