It is not especially challenging, with modern tech, to take something like influenza and adjust it to create something different enough to be called new and that does legitimately have some 'gain of function'. I have no reason to think that this isn't what has been done. Mixing up the case stats with the cases of 'old' flu just helps amplify the panic.
There are hundreds of possible theories and agendas that can seem to make sense without having absolute proof - some might be true, but many aren't. Therefore, I stay open until the evidence mounts. Every day I get sent evidence and claims that are partially or completely false - which take me only minutes to show. In such a situation there is no choice but to have a high standard for evidence.