Hive Inflation for January 2024! | Slightly Above the Projected One

in #hive10 months ago

How did Hive did in the first month of 2024 from an inflation standpoint? Let’s take a look!

01.png

The projected inflation for Hive for 2024 is 6% on a yearly basis, or 0.5% on a monthly basis.

Hive has a double currency system, HIVE and HBD, with conversions between them that add or remove HIVE from circulation on top of the regular inflation. Furthermore, the decentralized hive fund DHF, that serves as a DAO converts the HIVE that is in the DHF into HBD.
The @hbdstabilizer has also grown and it is playing an important role in the overall tokenomics, making conversions and trading on the internal market.
Because of this additional mechanics the HIVE inflation and supply can be drastically different in real time than the regular/projected one.

To be able to follow the HIVE supply we need to take a look at all the different ways HIVE is created, author, curation, witness rewards, conversions etc, then net that out with the HIVE burned from conversions, accounts fees, null transfers etc. To get the virtual supply we need to do the same for the HBD supply as well.

HIVE Created

Here is the chart.

image001.png

The chart above includes:

  • Author rewards
  • Curation rewards
  • Witness rewards
  • Staking rewards

These are the regular ways new Hive enters circulation, and all of them are through vested HIVE, aka powered up. You can notice the slight fluctuations in the daily amounts that is connected with the virtual hive supply, or the base for inflation. When the price of HIVE is low, the virtual hive supply increases, and when it is up, the virtual hive supply decreases.

The thing is the conversions are playing a major role in the ecosystem. Here is the chart again, including conversions.

image003.png

We can notice that the HBD to HIVE conversions are the dominant in the chart. This works in both ways and a big part of them is converted back to HIVE, especially through the work of the stabilizer.

The regular inflation is around 70k HIVE per day.

We can notice the drop in recent months. This is because the stabilizer has changed its funding from the DHF and has reduced the daily amount of funds it receives and sends them back to the DHF.

HIVE Removed from Circulation

Here is the chart.

image005.png

The above takes into consideration six different ways of HIVE removed:

  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD
  • Transfers to null
  • Null as post beneficiary
  • New accounts creation fee
  • HIVE to HBD conversions

The HIVE transfers to the DHF are now dominant. These are transfers made by the stabilizer. We can see a few spikes in the HIVE to HBD conversions (blue) in 2023. These were due to the increase in the HBD price. We can also notice the drop in recent months, same as the opposite conversions due to the low volumes that the stabilizer is doing.

Historical HIVE Supply

When all the above is added and removed, we get this chart for the all-time HIVE supply.

image007.png

Up until August 2021, the supply was almost steadily increasing with a small fluctuation. Then a drop in the supply in September 2021. Since then, from time to time we can see some drops in the supply with the recent happening in February and April 2023. December ended with 422M HIVE in circulation.

HBD Supply

Here is the chart for the HBD supply.

image011.png

The light color is HBD in the DHF. The HBD in the DHF is not freely circulating HBD and only enters circulation when payouts to the DHF workers are made.

HBD is being created and removed in various ways, but the conversions play the major role here in both directions. Other ways HBD is created are DHF proposal payouts, author rewards and interest.

We can see that after a downtrend in 2022, in 2023 there was an increase in the HBD supply in February, a small decrease in March and again a small increase in April.
In the last months the HBD supply has been almost constant hovering around 11M HBD.

Virtual HIVE Supply

When we add the HIVE equivalent supply from the HBD to the HIVE supply we get the chart below.

image013.png

The light color is HIVE that in theory can be converted from HBD at the current market prices for HIVE.
We can see that the virtual supply fluctuates a lot, mostly because it is tied to the price of HIVE. As the price of HIVE drops, the virtual supply increases and the opposite.

When we zoom in 2023 - 2024 we get this:

image015.png

In 2023 and 2043 we can notice a steady numbers in the virtual HIVE supply because the price has been relatively stable in the period. The regular HIVE supply has slowly increased in the period.

Projected VS Realized HIVE Inflation in 2023 - 2024

image.png

This chart tells the story of the new HIVE entering circulation in 2023 – 2024.
There was a downtrend from the beginning of the year, up to March, when HIVE was deflationary, but since then the supply kept growing, with some small drops, and we are now at the same level as projected and realized.

Monthly Inflation

If we plot the monthly inflation in 2023-2024, we get this.

image019.png

2023 has been interesting. January had a small positive inflation, February a negative one, that was offset by the positive inflation in March, April is almost at zero.

In the first month of 2024 the inflation was just above 0.7% per month just while the projected one is 0.5%.

In terms of absolute numbers, the HIVE supply in January 2024 has increased from 418.7M to 421.9M, adding almost3M HIVE in circulation, while the projected one is around 2M.

Yearly Inflation

The yearly, projected and realized inflation looks like this.

image021.png

Hive is almost as the projected inflation in 2023. A 5.7% yearly inflation, just below the projected 6.5%. For 2024 the year just started and we sill see how it will go.

Net HIVE Created by Category in January 2024

Here is the new HIVE put in circulation by category for the month.

image025.png

The curation rewards are on the top with 920k HIVE. Next are the conversions with an 850k HIVE added. This is the main reason why HIVE has more inflation in the month.
A note that authors rewards are paid 50% HIVE, 50% HBD, and the HIVE share only is at 490k, while approximately the same amount was paid in HBD equivalent.
On the negative side we have transfers to null and null as beneficiary with 3k HIVE and a small amount of fee for creating new accounts.

All the best
@dalz

Sort:  

I didn't realize this platform was so inflationary.

I guess it makes sense, as there is new $HIVE releasing all the time for the Witnesses, for Author Rewards, and for Curation rewards.

Maybe there is some way to build burn features into the ecosystem as well? Either just as part of some of the games on here, or some kind of burn-to-enter lottery or something?

I just hate seeing people's value slowly drained away from them through "inflation."

Fascinating.

Now tell me how much inflation Hive has.
APR per year.
What is it?

Spoiler alert: It's pretty low.

Well, according to what I read above, it looks like it's quite variable (still learning about this ecosystem), but it also looks like the supply has gone up by 100%+ in 7 years.

That sounds pretty inflationary to me.

But, I also think Bitcoin is hyper-inflationary (currently minting over $300k per hour)

That's why I'm a $CULTist ✊

Great mission, great community, and it's hyper-deflationary 🏆

Bitcoin is hyperinflationary because the USD value of it is going up?
Interesting take.

I was saying the same thing when that USD value was $250k per hour, $200k per hour, and when it was doing $250k per hour at $25k per BTC before the last halving.

Inflation is theft. Always.

I guess if you had some sort of UBI inflation then... at least it's uniform theft? (still steals more (%-wise) from those with less wealth)

Inflation can only be theft if the thing it's paying for isn't worth the money.
Bitcoin inflation is security.
Is security not worth it?
Many would argue that security is the only thing that allows it to exist in the first place.

This analytical chart about Hive inflation is good news for me. Hive was projected to have 6.5% inflation in 2023, but it ended up to 5.7%, that is 0.8 below the projected inflation, I am convinced that 2024 will better. Please keep sharing, this analysis are very important to us.

Things are still running very stable in this regard which is always good news for Hive.

A huge change. That's sounds well. Keep sharing informative things

This means that the hbdstabilizer is very useful
Thank you very much for the information

It definitely seems like there is so much inflation happening right now. Thank you also for giving us this update

!ALIVE

@dalz! You Are Alive so I just staked 0.1 $ALIVE to your account on behalf of @ tuisada. (5/10)

The tip has been paid for by the We Are Alive Tribe through the earnings on @alive.chat, feel free to swing by our daily chat any time you want, plus you can win Hive Power (2x 50 HP) and Alive Power (2x 500 AP) delegations (4 weeks), and Ecency Points (4x 50 EP), in our chat every day.

Great overview.

The rate of inflation for Hive is not that bad, I mean the 6% yearly rate. The DHF is helping to keep things under control and it's doing a very good job. Thanks for bringing us these insightful info about the platform. Have a great weekend.

It's good to see that Hive inflation is going according to projections, and is even below it. I hope it stays that way once we enter the bull market.

Thank you very much for the detailed analysis of Hive inflation dynamics in January 2024! The detailed dissection of HIVE creation and elimination is commendable as it reveals the complexity surrounding this ecosystem. But I wonder how these inflationary trends affect Hive’s stability and growth potential in general. What can these factors do to affect investor sentiment and long-term sustainability?