Hive had been over 30 cents for some time
Pricing without Charts
You have to decide on a price independent of charts and predictions.
Hive is not only an altcoin. It is also an App-coin. Should you power up you will have a greater influence on who is rewarded through inflation of Hive. Hive is inflationary. I thought that 30 cents was more than I would pay for Hive so I decided to power-down and sell. Now that Hive has gone below 30, I am HODL my Hive dollars and Hive and waiting for it to go below 25 cents to buy back in.
Buy when it goes up?
It seems that people get excited about a coin when it goes up. The market is irrational. If they are excited to buy Bitcoin at $90,000, why were they poo pooing purchases at $90 a few years ago? Definitely it is a better trade to pay less for something than to pay more.
I think it safe to say that Hive has gotten to its user-base it is going to get to for sometime and there is no reason to expect growth in terms of users. In terms of growth for demand for Hive, Hive does or may provides these three things:
- Free Speech for the Internet. Enthusiasm for a social media blockchain back-end that literally saved lives by being a place where people can speak the truth, and site evidence while the lame-stream media were parroting what the companies, which by the way have no liability for their products. It is not so much as ideology but it is a practical tool to have such a public good.
- Cutting Edge Blockchain Technology Enthusiastic users of blockchain technology naturally gravitate to Hive. People who love to see new shiny technology working. Even though the core of the technology is much older than the blockchain itself and the Blockchain is turning 9 years old this year, we have a short block-time target, which gives us a social media backend, a financial backend and a way of compensating authors.
- Tribal: We are the Hive tribe and Communities on Hive allow us to come together digitally, and in order to support our tribe we buy Hive in order to buy POB say. It is like you may get a sense of belonging being on Hive and people may want to buy Hive Power to feel like an important part of the Hive community.
- Price Appreciation: People Buy Hive because they expect it will go up in fiat. Unfortunately people buy when things go up, and sell when things go down. I will try to do the opposite.... People buying based on price appreciation have to calculate whether these motivations including this one are enough to push the price of Hive higher.
The speculator's motivations often lead to hot money going in and just as quickly going out of Hive causing big jumps and crashes in the price.
While free speech is free on Hive, rewards for authors cost Hive Power. Without Hive power your vote doesn't count to who gets rewarded on Hive. So, a free-speech believer has an incentive to buy up Hive power so that he may reward his favorite authors. It also provides a platform for your favorite authors. Even though depreciation of Hive, it may be collectively worth it to lose money on owning Hive power if we learn invaluable lessons having it around. By buying Hive you can support your authors and provide a platform for them at the same time.
Hive isn't so cutting edge these days but the ability to interact with the Hive block chain without hosting your own node is a great feature for developers. By the way if anyone wants a summary of your Hive activity for the last three years, send 5 HBD to @leprechaun, and tell me you want that in the memo. The software that does it is manually run and often I need to make changes as the Hive devs often change the way APIs work.
The ability to flag posts could ruin the ability to find new voices using the Trending algorithm. If a bunch of wealthy blood thirsty types buy up Hive power there would be a dark change to the content that gets on the Trending page and even some articles worth reading will become less 3. Tribal: We are the Hive tribe and Communities on Hive allow us to come together digitally, and in order to support our tribe we buy Hive in order to buy POB say. It is like you may get a sense of belonging being on Hive and people may want to buy Hive Power to feel like an important part of the Hive community.
visible. This is why you should follow your favorite authors.
It's hard to put this into a number. Based on how much you have for savings for yourself and income each person should decide what they can buy in terms of Hive power. There is a lot of moving parts here. You can see how so many things can go wrong. I don't think people should have an expectation of Hive going up in value. It is hard to distil how much of the Hive price is from hot money and how much is cold money. Perhaps the answer lies in how much liquid Hive is out there sitting in limit orders in the DExes and CExes or perhaps it comes down to how much liquid Hive there is. People who have powered up are definitely cold money people and it would be great to get in when the speculation motivation is at its lowest troff.